Exchequer 17:45 Thirsk
A bit of a longshot but possibly very good value at his current 33-1. He’s value at 20s and a shortening of the price would provide further encouragement, as this Yorkshire stable likes a gamble and comes up with some brilliant excuses when the Stewards politely enquire about sudden improvements in form. This, for example, caught the eye, following Mr Potter’s victory at Kempton in March: “The trainer’s representative explained that the gelding had worn earplugs on his previous run but that they had been removed at the start on this occasion.”
He’s a gelding that has had wind surgery and is trying a new headgear combination in a 0-65 handicap. a strange combination that meets many of my longshot criteria. All of his best form has been on the AW (and his rating is much higher) but he has rarely run on today’s GS going, so I will take a chance that this is a non-issue.
The stats for a prominent runner from a low draw in a six-furlong race at Thirsk are positive Win% 12.83 P&L +£59. He has come down the handicap and, on paper, now looks well in here
Negatives: Has never won on the turf. I haven’t previously heard of the jockey, I think he might play tennis
Lyndon B 15:50 Sandown
Some of you will know that I regarded this gelding as unlucky at Goodwood. He’s a bit short but still looks value. The negative is that Gosden and Appleby have runners that are difficult to assess
Fort Myers 17:20 The Curragh
I note with great interest that Richard Fahey has a runner in this race, however, one has to think that this will be won by either Guildsman or a horse trained by someone called O’Brien. Fort Myers caught my eye when staying on in the Coventry stakes to finish between Guildsman and Golden Horde and went straight into my tracker. He was a little disappointing behind the very smart Siskin LTO but he had a bad start and the aforementioned winner is very smart. His sire has a progeny win record of 25.58% for two-year-olds competing at this C&D. Ryan Moore has opted to ride Lope de Fernandez but we all know that he is not always on the right O’Brien horse in big races
Seraphinite 14:10 Sandown
Ran well when being beaten by an improver LTO
o Progeny of Gutaifan have won 2 from 3 at this C&D
o The excellent Adam Kirby is atop for the first time
o Trainer has a 33% win record with two year olds over this C&D
Sapa Inca 18:55 Hamilton
I cheered this Galileo filly to victory at Ascot recently and will stay loyal even although there are many other possible choices in this excellent handicap
o This season she has won twice and been placed four times in her six races over this distance
o The style of the Ascot victory suggests to me that she is still improving
o The Johnson / Fanning combination has a 75% winning record over this C&D
Negatives:
o I am a bit unnerved by the fact that the same owners have Paths of Glory, who also looks a decent contender, in the race as well but let’s see
o Elysian Flame looks to have been treated very lightly by the handicapper so, although she is technically 2lbs out of the handicap, I think they might have missed a trick here