I am aware that many of the Trends in this section are negative, but I hope will allow the reader to avoid backing horses that probably won’t win unless The Baby Jesus gets involved.
This stat however has a solid base and forms a good platform for further investigation. It has produced a profit on nine of the last 18 years and an overall profit of £58.60 off 35 wins. The e/w money is decent and backing e/w to normal terms on 6/1 or better, would have returned £61.75.
FACT: If some racecourses are bad, Leopardstown is bloody marvellous. Backing any horse that ran and WON at Leopardstown LTO, in any Listed, G1, G2, or G3 race would have given you 164 betting opportunities in 139 races since 2003 and would have delivered 35 winners and 44 places. The A/E is 1.13. This is a very strong stat when applied to Handicaps, but there aren’t that many selections that come up. (16R-4W-4P in 16 races over 18 years). This is also a solid base for backing LTO Leopardstown winners that are longer than 5/1 at SP. Just following that line, would have produced 13W-21P-98R in 84 races since 2003, suggesting about 5 bets a year for an ROI in excess of 57%.
RULE: Consider backing any horse that won a G1, G2, G3 or Listed race at Leopardstown LTO, especially when priced at over 5/1, or when running in a Handicap.