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Cheltenham Day 1

Capt. Kneesup

Capt. Kneesup

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No time for chit chat. I’m building a website for a charity; I’ve got an environmental campaign to put together; I’ve just come back from seeing my furrowed eye-brow consultant and I’m not sure where The Cheltenham tweeds are. All this before 7.00 pm when I’m off for road-kill with his Lordship. So onto the tips…

PS Timing Update: The games afoot and suddenly, all the people I have been chivvying are now on board. So I’m afraid after the Ultima – it’s selections only. Trust me I have done the research and know the Whos – just don’t have time to give you the Why’s.

Tuesday 15th March

You might remember my earlier post about statistics or trends that produce better than expected results. There is only one trend that has qualifiers on Day 1 which is:

HORSE THAT WON AT LEOPARDSTOWN LTO

1.30 7 MIGHTY POTTER (FR) Kennedy, J W Elliott, Gordon
2.10 1 BLUE LORD (FR) Townend, P Mullins, W P
2.50 14 DISCORDANTLY (IRE) Power, R M Harrington, Mrs John
3.30 10 HONEYSUCKLE Blackmore, Rachael Bromhead, Henry De

Of those, I have already had a small e/w on MIGHTY POTTER

1.30 Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Of my original long-shot selections, I LIKE TO MOVE IT now runs in the County Handicap Hurdle on Friday, where he is a best-priced 10/1. Stick him on your short-list. I fear I shall lose this, but I have been a massive fan of CONSTITUTION HILL all year. Only he and MIGHTY POTTER have won a G1 hurdle LTO – a small statistic that supports that cause is that since 2004, the figures for such a feat, have been 16R – 6W – 4P. However, in the last decade and with the rise of Shamrock Power, the statistics are 12R – 5W – 3P. Obs, DYSART DYNAMO is a very speedy threat, as is JONBON, but in a world full of clutched-at straws, the former still has to race left-handed, and JONBON needs a chum to hold his hand, with the parade ring prelims possibly proving his undoing. If you dutch CONSTITUTION HILL and DYSART DYNAMO, you’re getting 4/5 about your money, which is tempting, but no, I’m backing MIGHT POTTER e/w and possibly have him in RFC with CH and DD.

MIGHTY POTTER 2 pts e/w

2.10 Sporting Life Arkle Chase

Last week I told you about COEUR SUBLIME who won a Beginners Chase at Gowran Park under Rachel Blackmore LTO. He was not foot-perfect and there wasn’t much pressure on him, but he looked the type to my untutored eye that would be further galvanised by the big day. He meets a number of key trends and has met some strong types en route. This time last week, I kept thinking that I might back EDWARDSTONE in a series of doubles and trebles, but I am staggered at how friendless he appears in the market. Maybe it’s because he’s British and the boys have now got their feet tucked under the table in Cheltenham bars and have started the investing. Maybe it’s his age – he’s older than a key age trend. Not sure what, but summat’s up. The best on the trends in BLUE LORD and I don’t see RIVIERE D’ETEL reversing the LTO Leopardstown form while HAUTS EN COULEURS’ only downside to date, was falling over in the Irish Arkle. However, don’t forget he was placed in the Triumph Hurdle in 2021 and he has been putting in some great chasing performances. SAINT SAM needs to smarten up his jumping… hmm

BLUE LORD 2½pts WinCOEUR SUBLIME 1pt e/ew – HAUTS EN COULEURS for ½pt CFC with the other two.

2.50 Ultima Handicap Chase

Possibly the best value to be had as I write is the 22/1 for 7 places that you can get with William Hill for LOST IN TRANSLATION. This is a crazy price. He has always been just below the very best but was still third in the 2020 Gold Cup missing out by 2l. From 17 chases he has 5W 6P – and this is his handicap debut. FANTASTIKAS is an unexposed novice who has graded race form and races up with the pace. He is a sensible jumper and those colours have been seen sported by Imperial Commander when winning his Cheltenham Gold Cup. He ran well in the Lingfield Winter Millions slightly stealing a decent pot, and ran well in The Dipper at Cheltenham against L’Homme Presse.

LOSTINTRANSLATION 2 pts e/w – FANTASTIKAS 1½pts e/w

3.30 Unibet Champion Hurdle

HONEYSUCKLE is taking the money out of the market and thus pushing other prices out. This makes the second favourite look vaguely attractive but as I have already guided you last week, my e/w money is on TOMMY’S OSCAR. What really bugs me is that he is drifting like a friendless barge and I have him at 25s and he is now 40s. I don’t think I’ll chase it any further…

HONEYSUCKLE 5 pts Win

4.10 Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle

STORMY IRELAND 2pts Win 

4.50 Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

THE TIDE TURNS looks value at 11/2 to win at this moment in time and yes he was beaten out of sight by Teahupoo who is a stone better and in the Champion Hurdle. There is some value in SEA SESSIONS who was eye-catching at Donny LTO under a penalty and went down by a short-head to JPO’B’s SIX FEET APART owned by Peter Savill. Before that, she beat Calvados by 2¼l at Aintree in December.

THE TIDE TURNS 3 pts win

5.30 National Hunt Chase

Any rain will help BRAESIDE and I would back him with Skybet now for 3 places at 12/1

BRAESIDE 2pts e/w 

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