The entire Derby news flow seemed to judgementally focus on the “jocking off” of Adam Kirby from John Leeper and his reinstatement on Adayar, forgetting in turn that Kirby had jocked off Oisin. Regardless of the speed with which the silks were changing hands in the changing room, Adayar ran a blinder and looked to genuinely enjoy the uphill finish, having looked unbalanced at the turn.
I wouldn’t like to say he will remain the best of those taking part because Hurricane Lane looked uncertain at foot in the finish, unsurprisingly as he finished without his front shoes. Similarly, Bolshoi Ballet will be out for a couple of weeks having finished lamely having been struck into in the first 200yds.
I will say nothing more about Team AOB’s entries because I don’t get the strategy. I commented beforehand on the absence of other runners, and I wonder whether this has something to do with the approaching end of Galileo’s stud career – but I don’t see how. Anyway, the tipping did alright with a 14pt profit for the day, making it 21pts+ for the meeting, and having drawn two of the three Appleby horses in a very valuable Sweepstake in a partnership, we decided to hedge on the other Appleby runner – called Adayar.
For the rest of the week, I have been flat out on the client-front, but sometimes, felt as though the Looking Glass and the Rabbit Hole and the Matrix had all combined into some ghastly other-world experience. I felt this, especially when towards the end of one day and, anxious to discover what HMG’s latest Pandemic wheeze was, (I use the term advisedly), I turned on the office TV. What came on, wasn’t Hancock’s Half Hour, but a quiz show called Countdown, brilliantly handled by Armstrong and Osman and which unsurprisingly involves them asking people general knowledge questions. The contestants’ lack of knowledge was breathtaking – but that wasn’t where my astonishment lay. No, it is the way in which so many of them seem to pass their day earning a crust. Eight contestants the other day produced two retirees and six people who effectively provided services to people who weren’t working at the time. One was a host in an escape room, two were artists and one was training himself to become a stand-up comedian. One had something to do with rollerskating, I think he delivered food on rollerskates, and the last one was involved with probably the world’s only online community devoted to goalkeeping.
In the main therefore the core output was devoted to servicing the needs of those not working. As I pondered this an ad came on, promoting a bike you ride at home that costs several thousand pounds to own, and where you watch a ponytail with an Estuary accent exhort you to “smash it” and telling you “we’ve cracked it”. This is leisure, not industry.
“What do you do Bob?” “I make films to energise people at home, who want to get really fit for the day, they have to cycle 26 miles to the bloody office because no one drives a train anymore.” “What do they do when they’re in the office, Bob.” “Well, they do the drawings that we put in the advertisements that sell the bikes.”
No wonder there’s something called an Escape Room.
Fortunately, the month of the Couch Potatoes has arrived. These are the people who drive the buses and the ambulance drivers who take them to hospital, and some City gents who make tons of money, and maybe even some engineers and road menders, (who I know have the time because I don’t see their handiwork every day), and from Friday they will be watching the European Football Championship or Euro 2021. Some will bet. Some may read this and take advice. Read these observations first, while pondering whether someone is reading this while riding the exercise bike and “…smashing it.” I hope not.
Firstly be aware, if you’re not already, that Spain has effectively tested positive (well the Captain at least), and the ramifications have yet to be calculated. Training has certainly been impacted, but more importantly match player selection.
The UEFA rules for such an eventuality, include special guidelines on what happens “should a group of players of a team be placed into mandatory quarantine or self-isolation”. Games will take place as scheduled “as long as the team has at least 13 players available (including at least one goalkeeper)” who have all tested negative the day before the game. Matches may be postponed by up to 48 hours to allow for teams to meet these requirements but, if Spain (or any other country) cannot field 13 players within the given timeframe, they automatically forfeit the game and a 3-0 victory is awarded to the opponents.
As it happens I’m a seller of Spain in any event and in the Pandemic, I think you need discipline and I think you need to be Northern European. Germany to win at 7/1 seems opportune and I quite fancy having Sweden progress to quarter-finals, when I’ll lay off their 100/1 to win outright.
Do not punt until you know what’s happening to Spain and thus their Group. In the meantime I have tried to find the confirmation of a bet I possibly made back in 2008, which involved backing all the first-round matches (that is the first of the three Group games each team plays), to result in a 1-1 draw at 90mins. Back then a 1-1 score was around 11/2.
You can go further and back them in doubles, which would pay a fraction over 41/1. But with 153 bets (18 matches) you need to have 4 correct scores to make the doubles pay. As I remember it, the thinking behind the bet was that in those very early encounters, the teams were [a] playing it safe [b] content to save players [c] had themselves had a punt!
I cannot find those stats, but here are some that might help.
Average Goals per Game European Championship
- Year – Goals – Teams
- 2016 – 108 – 24
- 2012 – 76 – 16
- 2008 – 77 – 16
- 2004 – 77 – 16
- 2000 – 85 – 16
- 1996 – 64 – 16
- 1992 – 32 – 8
- 1988 – 34 – 8
What is the average number of goals scored per game?
Since 1960 the average for each match is 2.4 goals. Since 1960 the number has been decreasing Back then the average was 4.25, equally there were only 4 matches played in total! above average. The average goals per game since 1988 however, is 2.34.
- Year – Avg.GPM
- 2016 – 2.12
- 2012 – 2.45
- 2008 – 2.48
- 2004 – 2.48
- 2000 – 2.74
- 1996 – 2.06
- 1992 – 2.13
- 1988 – 2.27
Number of goals European Championship top scorers
- Since the first Euros in 1960, the average number of goals scored by the EC top scorer is 4.
- The number of goals scored by the EC’s top scorer has always been between 2 and 9 goals. The record-holder is Michel Platini (France, 1984), with 9 goals.
European Championships 2016
24 countries competed and 50 matches played in total. If you had taken the average as 2.34 gpm, then you might have predicted a competition total of around 117 goals. The actual number for Euro 2016 was 108.