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13th April 2024 10:16 am

“A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries."

Goodwood, The Results. Also Windsor, The Systems

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Firstly, the Goodwood results.

Based on an e/w bet of 1pt e/w, and a winning bet of 2pts to win, we turned over 120 pts. We also had 3 forecast bets for 10 pts. Our return was exactly 260.39 pts, or to put it another way, we doubled our money. We had six winning bets and made a profit from the Crazy Bet of backing Haggas across the card, to make it seven. We had ten profitable e/w bets and a stonking forecast. Without Junkanoo we would have made a loss of 4.54 pts. Statistically, I’d be happy to take the median!

For historical purposes, I have placed the spreadsheet in the Downloads section in case you are interested.

Meanwhile, over at Windsor, you might know by now my penchant for trends and stats. In rare moments of leisure, I might fetch a couple of screwdrivers, clean off the slide rule, and pour a glass from the last of the Ch. Batailley 2014 and see whether I can find a pattern emerging from the reams of data available. In the old days, when one added the heady aroma of a Boyards caporal ordinaire, (en mais, of course), inspiration flowed in about the same quantity as the phlegm, but one was younger then. The upshot was that I have done much work on Windsor’s stats. It produces a regular stream of data, it is consistent, and provided they don’t change the grass and put houses all over it, the data is reliable.

One such system suggests that backing 2yo favourites at Windsor between May and October, in non-handicap races over any distance,  would have yielded a moderate £1 LSP of £65.42 to date. They must not wear headgear and must have run at least once. From 17 years of data, there have been four losing years, but the overall ROI is 14.41%. The median for the FTSE 100 is 7.39% and the average is 8.43%. This suggests a tiny hint of money for old rope. We had a qualifier today. OLYMPIC THEATRE in the 4:30 from Michael Bell’s yard. He was a 4¼l second to a Marco Botti animal.

If you like that idea, wait until you hear this one. In a 3yo+ handicap, where the horse is aged exactly 3yo, and has not run for between 6 and 75 days AND is clear or joint-favourite, there have only been 27 bets and 16 have won for an ROI of 88.48%. Sadly the horse in the 19:45 is withdrawn, so I can’t demonstrate just how good a system it is. Next time perhaps.

Systems aside, I fancy the following in a Lucky 31:

  • 18:15 DASCHAS
  • 18:45 ALIBABA
  • 19:15 ROSE GREY
  • 19:45 MR TOP HAT e/w
  • 20:15 UGANDA HEIGHTS

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