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Has the flaw in our algorithm been discovered?

Capt. Kneesup

Capt. Kneesup

Capt. Kneesup was the former Racing Correspondent of various BBC regional radio stations and was the gossip columnist on the now-defunct Odds On magazine. He now runs Nick Boyd's large, privately owned reputation, which is widely regarded as a sporting, not-for-profit endeavour.
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As the person in charge of Raceweb, I feel obliged to point out that all Raceweb’s advisory notes – and do remember, these are not instructions – are based on well-researched and scientifically sound data. The data is compiled by people who have devoted their lives to the accuracy of their work. Sadly, because they are human, they make mistakes, much like many of you. Going through the information we now have available to us, and based on a recently tweaked algorithm, we have now amended our advice to the following.

The Test Match, as we correctly predicted was a draw. We would now predict that Frankie Dettori will skip York, take a week’s holiday in France after winning two Group races for the boss at Deauville, take a week’s holiday then ride Campanelle for old mate Wes Ward, in the Darley Prix Morny next weekend. We would also suggest that Mercedes is fully supportive of Lewis Hamilton and has issued both their drivers with a new all-black overall with special knee-cushions sewn in. We believe that Valteri Bottas’ comment at Barcelona heard over his helmet radio; “…this suit is effing hot!” was a thumbs-up, rather than a complaint.* [see end note].

Lewis Hamilton is an excellent example of a Vegan and Humanitarian, and we feel confident that his soon-to-be-negotiated £40m annual salary, will be used to better the lives of tax beneficiaries everywhere.

We also know that a Grey horse did win the Grey race and that Madame, as a result, had the hat-trick of a grey horse, lady trainer and lady jockey. Indeed, in the article’s main thrust, you can sense the outcome that the algorithm was already hinting at, without actually saying it. Which in algorithm terms is pretty strong.

The Tissue stepped into the breach last Saturday, as I felt the uncomfortable hand of a conflict of interest on my shoulder. While his advice that day lacked significant success, we believe that The Tissue sets an excellent example of the power of science over fact. Despite the evident failings in specificity, should The Tissue be offered a position such as Professor of Predictive Sciences at The University of Carshalton, it is fair to say, that we would all support his new career path. No apology is necessary or sought, because his work was based on the best available data to hand at that time.

In the intervening time, until the new University Post is created for The Tissue, York gets underway, and it is Raceweb’s perfect opportunity to reveal our new predictive mathematical modelling. Huzzah!

Weather & Wealth Warning:

I have been looking at the live weather radar this morning and there is a huge band of rain, heading towards the racecourse, which I fear will get a real soaking I will, therefore, highlight in blue, horses that have had victories on the Soft – and in green horses with victories on good to soft.

The Draw

  • 5f. All the research suggests that a low draw, ideally coupled with good early pace, or at least the ability to hold a position early, looks essential.
  • 6f. Recent results have strongly favoured the lower third of the draw. Additionally, front runners seem to have a very strong edge too. For no apparent reason, horses appear far more likely to lead if drawn low. Camber? Ground? View?

13:45 Sky Bet And Symphony Group H’cap C2 5f 89y

Michael Dods has got an astonishing record here with his runners over the minimum distance. Since my data began in 2003, he has had 19 runners in the Ebor Festival in races under 6f. Seven of them won and four were placed. Sadly JAWWAAL in this race is drawn 11 and tends to race mid-division. He might make a place.

I can’t quite see APLOMB taking this despite his low-draw, but the more rain the better for this hold-up horse. He is surrounded by front runners, who will ensure a decent pace, and I think he might have traffic problems. TARBOOSH is drawn “wrong” – but occupies the same stall 19, as last year’s winner Dakota Gold. He loves the rain-sodden ground, and his trainer is on fire. LAHORE is another hold-up horse, has a low draw, makes all the trends and is only 3lbs shy of his last winning mark. Still and all, he is a hold-up horse. So I am now looking elsewhere and the three that meet my criteria of a low-draw, the ability to handle G/S and/or Soft ground and like to be up with the pace are ACCLAIM THE NATIONJUSTANOTHERBOTTLEHYPERFOCUS.

Of those, ACCLAIM THE NATION was noticed getting a decent neck-second at Goodwood on the first day, in the Qatar handicap, where he beat amongst others Benny and the Jets who has gone onto win since. Back him e/w

Do those three with TARBOOSH in a ¼pt combination forecast/exacta.

14:15 Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (G3) 7f

I’m only looking at 7f runners LTO for this – DARVEL for example, is bred to be a sprinter, and while this may be within his compass, I think there are better here. Charlie Appleby runs  CLOUDBRIDGE who meets all the trends and he displayed real potential on his debut at Leicester. His breeding (dam won on soft) suggests he’ll handle the ground. GEAR UP from Johnston’s yard had a CD win in July, he got wound up in the preliminaries but had an easy 1½l victory over previous winner Henrik. ROYAL SCIMITAR is having his second run for Clive Cox since his debut at Newbury last month. Three winners have come from that race including the second Line Of Departure, who has won his next two starts.

ROYAL SCIMITAR wins – GEAR UP e/w

14:45 Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes (G2) 1m 3f 188y

This is a truly muddling race, so I’m going to focus on three horses that have won on G/S and S ground. DARAIN PYLEDRIVERHIGHLAND CHIEF.

The key to this conundrum might well be MOGUL, who was beaten by PYLEDRIVER in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot but was then behind him in The Derby. Mogul has since confirmed the regard in which he is held by connections, by taking the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood. HIGHLAND CHIEF ran on well in that to come second, having shown his dislike for Epsom in the Derby. He’ll find The Knavesmire far more to his liking – no hill for a start – and as I have pointed out he’ll handle the ground. DARAIN cost 3½m Gns, but remains unbeaten in his two 10f runs to date. Whilst this might be a step-up in class he carries the magical CAPITAL Timeform P, suggesting that their clever people reckon he’s well up to this task. To add even more fuel to the bonfire, Gosden believes he needs cut and he has won this race five times since 2007.

DARAIN wins – PYLEDRIVER e/w – HIGHLAND CHIEF with the other two in a ½pt CFC and ¼pt Tricast

15:15 Juddmonte International Stakes (G1) 1m 2f 56y

This is going to be a cracker. The Coronation Cup/Eclipse winner GHAIYYATH vs Royal Ascot hero LORD NORTH, the 2000 Gns winner KAMEKO and the multiple Group 1 winning mare MAGICAL.

LORD NORTH has now won 6/9 races in his career as well as two seconds. GHAIYYATH’s record speaks for itself and on GS or slower his record is 31130. However, he was disappointing in the Arc on very soft ground. LORD NORTH has a record 212111 since the snip, and in the last year, he has taken the Cambridgeshire followed by a Listed race again at Newmarket. He took the G3 Brigadier Gerard at Haydock and beat the dual G1 winner Addeybb by almost 4l in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Ascot. MAGICAL is AO’Bs charge in his attempt to win this for the seventh time.  She’s 11/23 of which 6 are G1s.  However, the last five-year-old mare to win this was Triptych in 1987.

LORD NORTH win

15:45 Sky Bet H’cap 17 Runners,  C2 2m

JUST IN TIME e/w – EDDYSTONE ROCK e/w

16:20 Sky Bet Fillies’ Sprint H’cap C2,  5f

DANDYS BEANO e/w

16:50 Sky Bet Nursery C2,  6f

CAIRN ISLAND e/w – SELECTED e/w

* I was always surprised in Lawrence of Arabia, that Sherif Ali (Omar Sharif) constantly wore black, which I thought would have made crossing the Nefud Desert unbearable. Four scientists were of the same opinion and went about researching why The Bedouin wear black in the desert. Those of you without a subscription to Nature might be interested in their scientific paper HERE. Alternatively, you can read The Christian Scientist Monitor’s article on their research HERE.

You don’t get this sort of info in The Racing Post!

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