A pretty good day having advised 4 winners at 18/1, 10, 9/1 and 9/2 and a couple of exotics which showed a near 46 pt profit. Overall we’re 88pts up after Day 1, but I wonder whether we would all be quite so delighted had I advised you to bet on The Tote.
I shall be brief. The Tote’s returns at York were dismal. Just open the RP and check the returns for yourself, (always remembering the Tote’s returns include your stake – so when they say they’re paying £10 they mean £9). If you can’t see anything wrong with the returns on, for example, the first race yesterday, then I shall assume you’re an investor. According to the web, the UK Tote Group, nee Alizeti, are comprised of a board and owners (I think they mean shareholders) who “…are a dedicated group of racehorse owners and breeders and racing fans who are passionate about revitalising the Tote”. They make frequent reference to the history, prestige and inheritance of that august body, forgetting that, even when it was dismally run by Woodrow Wyatt, the Nanny at least looked and felt proportionately fair. I am cross and you don’t deserve a rant – but their rather patronising arriviste demeanour has irritated me. It also reminds me as to why no sport should allow Pool betting on its output unless it directly controls and manages it.
Onto less contentious matters, and until further notice please assume I am using your favourite bookmaker, who will at least keep it real!
13:45 Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (Fillies’ Group 2) 14 Runners, Class 1, 6f
Willie Haggas’s SACRED ran well in the 5f Queen Mary at Ascot, being caught on the line by Campanelle, who as mentioned before, will contest the Prix Morny on Sunday, (as Wes Ward’s Lady Aurelia did before). She meets all the trends and looks solid – if not a little short. She would be fair at 5/2, but I suspect morning money will shorten her. For e/w value I want a low-drawn, ground experienced girl, with some form and the tendency to take a lead. That suggests SHE’S SO NICE or SUSSEX GARDEN.
SHE’S SO NICE won her 6f debut on GS and was third at Newmarket when favourite, behind Basilicata over 6f. She is wearing a hood for the first time. This is a significant step-up. SUSSEX GARDEN won her debut at the first time of asking but was beaten 4l into second at Naas LTO trying to win it from the front. If she tries to make the pace I suspect she’ll be caught – but then again she has the benefit of Ryan Moore. Really tricky.
SACRED wins – SUSSEX GARDEN e/w – SHE’S SO NICE e/w Sacred to beat the other two for two 1 pt SFC.
14:15 Goffs UK Premier Yearling Stakes 22 Runners, Class 2, 6f
DEVIOUS COMPANY is well ahead on all the various ratings and is a pretty classy animal. He benefits from a low draw and has performed well in G2 company. However, I don’t understand why he is dropping back to 6f. He needs cut – but will this have dried up too much? Too many questions for a 2/1 shot.
HAPPY ROMANCE missed the break at Newbury in the Super Sprint and then got her act together and hosed it. Team Hannon has a great record in this race having won it three times in the last four years, most notably with Mums Tipple who wasn’t far off the course record. However, she reminds me more of Miss Tiggy Wiggy, who won the Supersprint in 2014, then won the Lowther and then the G1 Cheveley Park later that year. For a bit of sport, I remember seeing how badly KRAKEN POWER was hampered in the G2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood – a race which in any event was run on ground too fast for him and too soon after his run in the Rose Bowl at Newbury. With cut and luck and backing him with a bookmaker for say 6 places at 25/1, I think you’ll get a run for your money.
HAPPY ROMANCE win – KRAKEN POWER e/w
14:45 Clipper Logistics Handicap (Heritage Handicap) 20 Runners, Class 2, 7f 192y
- Ignore any horse older than 6 (since 1997)
- Ditto anything raced further than 8f LTO (1997)
- 11/11 rated 96-107 (9/11 with 9st+
- 10/11 less than 31 DSLR
That leaves you with five runners. (2-4-7-10 & 14)
If you add in the fact that 17/24 were drawn no higher than 11, you’re left with (in odds order) SIR BUSKER – PROMPTING – ORBAAN. You have to ignore SIR BUSKER’s Goodwood effort LTO where he got impeded, jammed up, boxed in, hampered and generally prevented from racing. He remains on the same mark, and subject to a clear run must have a real chance. ORBAAN has won three times at 1m on G & GS ground. The handicapper had kept him on the same mark for the last two races, one assumes because he’s waiting to see him at his best? Just saying… David O’Meara also runs PROMPTING who was impressive when winning LTO and the handicapper might still not have got to the right mark yet. If you told me you really fancied MUTAMAASIK I’m not sure I would try to dissuade you.
PROMPTING e/w – SIR BUSKER win – ORBAAN e/w
15:15 Darley Yorkshire Oaks (Fillies’ And Mares’ Group 1) 6 Runners, Class 1, 1m 3f 188y
Like some ghastly Richard Curtis film, LOVE wins. LOVE beats FRANKLY DARLING.
LOVE wins. FRANKLY DARLING 2nd in SFC
15:45 British EBF & Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes (Fillies’ And Mares’ Listed) 12 Runners, Class 1, 1m 3f 188y
Four horses survive the trends examination, GOLD WAND – ALBAFLORA – AWARD SCHEME – BHARANI STAR
Of those, I’m only interested in the first two. GOLD WAND either doesn’t get 12f (The Oaks) or doesn’t like a hill (Epsom). I’m inclined to the former. ALBAFLORA remains an enigma, but the way she woke up in The Musidora was pretty special. It really was a question of the lights coming on.
16:20 Sky Bet EBF Stallions Nursery 11 Runners, Class 2, 7f
POSSIBLE AMBITION ran pleasingly over C&D on his debut last month. He was beaten less than 5l five lengths by Gorytus (fourth in G2 Vintage stakes since), he might not have won, but he would certainly have been 3l+ closer but for impedance. He is 11 lbs better off with the runner-up Star of Orion. He didn’t run well at Catterick having to be niggled 3f out. 25/1 is a cracking price.
POSSIBLE AMBITION e/w
16:50 British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap 11 Runners, Class 2, 7f
DAWAAWEEN e/w – LORTON e/w