FACT: There have been 389 Class 1 races at the Festival, (Grade 1,2,3 and Listed) since 2003.
124 of those races have had 230 horses aged 11 and older compete in them and only 3 have won and 26 have been placed. The A/E is 0.29 and with a win percentage of only 1.3%, you’d perhaps be surprised at the comparatively small loss of £93.5 the win and £127.20 e/w.
The reason, of course, is that of the three winners, one was the 2003 Champion Chase hero 6/4 Fav MOSCOW FLYER. The other two were both 66/1 and they were the 2008 Festival Plate winner MISTER MCGOLDRICK and the 2019 Grand Annual winner CROCO BAY. I did back Mister M, but in all honesty, I was only prompted to do so by a very pretty girl called Emma B. I also did the forecast with the horse I had already backed, 9/1 shot Gwanako. Pure luck I suppose, but as my hero, Rowley Birkin QC often declared: “…. I’m afraid I was, terribly, terribly, drunk.”
RULE: Never back, without a great deal of consideration, any horse in a Festival C1 who is 11 or older.
Sub Clause 1: Always listen to very pretty girls or those who catch your eye.
Sub Clause 1a: Drinking is perfectly permissible, even in these ghastly, self-righteous, woke times, providing you continue to bring home the bacon, have fun, are amusing, and happy to die young.