FACT: Since 2003, there have been 92 Grade 1 Festival Races. 76 of those races were contested by horses that had completed their races but had NOT been first or second in BOTH their last two races. Recent horses that failed, included MIGHT BITE, PRESENTING PERCY, TORNADO FLYER, MENGLI KHAN, VOIX DU REVE and POLITOLOGUE in the 2019 Champion Chase together with the 6th and 7th in a nine runner race. In other words, this simple rule would have eliminated a third of the field.
204 horses have competed in Festival Grade 1 Chases, since 2003, that had failed to come either first or second on their last two completed runs. There were 3 winners (1.47%) and 22 were placed (10.78%). The A/E is 0.4 and one would have lost £159 the win and £215.50 e/w
RULE: In G1 Festival Chases, one should consider eliminating any horse that has completed their last two races (ignore pu or fell etc) and failed to come either first or second in both those races