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Statistically unlikely – yet Madame seems to be correct! Again!

Capt. Kneesup

Capt. Kneesup

Capt. Kneesup was the former Racing Correspondent of various BBC regional radio stations and was the gossip columnist on the now-defunct Odds On magazine. He now runs Nick Boyd's large, privately owned reputation, which is widely regarded as a sporting, not-for-profit endeavour.
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Now and then one opens a door of enquiry, which one quickly regrets. In this case, I had chanced upon W.B Arthur’s 1994 essay in the American Economic Review and, within it, this insight:

In interactive situations of complication, agents cannot rely upon the other agents they are dealing with to behave under perfect rationality, and so they are forced to guess their behaviour. This lands them in a world of subjective beliefs, and subjective beliefs about subjective beliefs… As a result, deductive rational reasoning can no longer be applied.

Not unnaturally, I started to apply it to the current management of Covid-19 and whether the world of “subjective beliefs” was playing any role – quite apart from the view that all pubs are full of singing yahoos. However, “…deductive rational reasoning” certainly rang a huge bell in connection with the creation and use of Madame’s betting system, and it’s alleged profitability, or at the very least its minimum financial impact.

This system is known here at the Ch. d’If, as The Shipman Method, based entirely on it’s focus on a combination of Ladies and Greys. Madame has invested, over the last four years, a total of £120. (shurely shome mishtake: Ed). Given she will only have a punt for approx 46 Saturdays – even for very moderate sums – that expenditure seems pretty reasonable – but more importantly, suggests a level of recurrent success. (I am ignoring on-course betting, which normally involves a raid on my limited resources which then have to be supplemented by a visit to the spitting machine or Le Banque du Club.)

This then is the outcome of my research.

NATIONAL HUNT (2003 – date)

Greys – Roans – Grey/Roans;

51514 bets – 5160 Wins – 10.02% Win% – £17625.21 P/L – 8671 Places – 16.63% Place%

When ridden by Female Jockeys

1990 bets – 189 Wins – 9.5% Win% – £716.01 P/L – Places 318 – 15.98% Place%

When additionally trained by Female Trainers:

 477 Bets – 52 Wins – 10.9% Win% – -£97.82 P/L – 62 Places – 13% Place%

However, astonishingly, if Madame only backed horses between 5/1 and 25/1 to win, her profit would be £6 from 272R – 24W – 41P. Had she backed them all e/w (in races with a minimum of 6 runners), she would have made £8.55 from 238R – 21P – 59P. But wait… by limiting herself to the following criteria:

  • NH Races with 8+ runners:
  • Ridden by a Female Jockey
  • Trained by a Female Trainer
  • Grey, Roan or Grey/Roan
  • Backed e/w at 5/1 minimum and 25/1 maximum

…she would have had the following figures since 2003: 192W – 19W – 56P resulting in a £1 LSP of £78.55. Of course, you see the same names, such as Goodnight Charlie and Brother Bennett, in the qualifiers list, but it appears as though Madame has a point! She will be thrilled. Huzzah!

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