Fact: Since 2003, there have been 206 Festival Hurdle races of which 88 were contested by 122 German-bred horses, of which only 2 have won. (Gordon Elliott’s ARAMAX 11th March 2020 in the Fred Winter and Willie Mullins ARCTIC FIRE on 17th March 2017 in the County Hurdle). There were 16 places. With a win % of 1.64% and a place percentage of 13.11%, the A/E was 0.27*. Despite the two winners being priced at 20/1 and 17/2, you would have made a profit of 32+pts laying all of them and a 20+pt profit only laying those priced 16/1 or less.
|122||2||1.64||– £92.50||16||13.11||88||2.27||– 75.82%||£32.32||– £23.45||
RULE: Do not back German-bred Hurdlers at The Festival.
- The A/E relates to the potential value of bets and is based on looking at the actual number of wins and dividing it by expected wins – A/E = Actual/Expected. If the A/E figure is above 1.00, it means the horse won more often than the odds expected it to; and if the figure is below 1.00, it means the horse won less often than what the odds expected. In other words, you want an A/E value of over 1.00 because it is a sign that your horses are outperforming what is expected of them; you are receiving value which is key to earning a long-term profit.