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“A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries."

The German Hurdlers Trend

Capt. Kneesup

Capt. Kneesup


Fact: Since 2003, there have been 206 Festival Hurdle races of which 88 were contested by 122 German-bred horses, of which only 2 have won. (Gordon Elliott’s ARAMAX 11th March 2020 in the Fred Winter and Willie Mullins ARCTIC FIRE on 17th March 2017 in the County Hurdle). There were 16 places. With a win % of 1.64% and a place percentage of 13.11%, the A/E was 0.27*. Despite the two winners being priced at 20/1 and 17/2, you would have made a profit of 32+pts laying all of them and a 20+pt profit only laying those priced 16/1 or less.


Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% ROI(SP) Lay(BF) P/L(Plc) Lay(Plc) A/E
122 2 1.64 – £92.50 16 13.11 88 2.27 – 75.82% £32.32 – £23.45




RULE: Do not back German-bred Hurdlers at The Festival. 

  • The A/E relates to the potential value of bets and is based on looking at the actual number of wins and dividing it by expected wins  – A/E = Actual/Expected. If the A/E figure is above 1.00, it means the horse won more often than the odds expected it to; and if the figure is below 1.00, it means the horse won less often than what the odds expected. In other words, you want an A/E value of over 1.00 because it is a sign that your horses are outperforming what is expected of them; you are receiving value which is key to earning a long-term profit.

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