Turning up at Cheltenham is no guarantee of success – and that even applies to the crowd, as I am reminded whenever I see the bookie’s children returning from another term at Harrow. I wondered about those horses who do turn up and more importantly where they came from. Supposing they weren’t fancied LTO, came to Cheltenham and then what? So this is what I discovered.
FACT: The 349 Grade 1,2 and 3 races since 2003, had 482 runners in 204 of those races that had been priced at 22/1 or greater LTO. OF those, only 7 won and 29 were placed. In other words, they weren’t fancied before. These losers include FORZA MILAN, MOHAAYED, A TOI PHIL and VANITEUX. But it also includes LISNAGAR OSCAR and BALKO DES FLOS. However, apply this concept to just the Graded Hurdle and Bumper races and you get 2W/14P/280R in 122 races with an A/E of 0.27 and a loss of £212 win and £325.50 e/w.
RULE: Eliminate from your card, any runner whose SP was 22/1 or greater LTO for any G1,2,3 Hurdle Race or NH Flat race.
Sub Rule: Consider this for all runners in Graded Chase races as well