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“A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries."

You do actually get what the price suggests

Capt. Kneesup

Capt. Kneesup


Turning up at Cheltenham is no guarantee of success – and that even applies to the crowd, as I am reminded whenever I see the bookie’s children returning from another term at Harrow. I wondered about those horses who do turn up and more importantly where they came from. Supposing they weren’t fancied LTO, came to Cheltenham and then what? So this is what I discovered.

FACT: The 349 Grade 1,2 and 3 races since 2003, had 482 runners in 204 of those races that had been priced at 22/1 or greater LTO. OF those, only 7 won and 29 were placed. In other words, they weren’t fancied before. These losers include FORZA MILAN, MOHAAYED, A TOI PHIL and VANITEUX. But it also includes LISNAGAR OSCAR and BALKO DES FLOS. However, apply this concept to just the Graded Hurdle and Bumper races and you get 2W/14P/280R in 122 races with an A/E of 0.27 and a loss of £212 win and £325.50 e/w.

RULE: Eliminate from your card, any runner whose SP was 22/1 or greater LTO for any G1,2,3 Hurdle Race or NH Flat race.

Sub Rule: Consider this for all runners in Graded Chase races as well

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