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24th July 2024 10:49 am

“A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries."

2024 Royal Ascot – Day Four (Fri 21st June)

These Donors Are AMAZING Thank You

Just in: CJM… Bunter… Ken… Thank you. They join: William S – MEJi – Peter N – Nigel B – Ken C – Mark S – James D – William M – Fiona M – Julian A – Jonathan H – Mrs V.M – Pete BN – Gavin C – Thom S – Sarah C – Mark S – Sam H – James R

21st June DRAW BIAS
The first ten home in the Britannia yesterday (ov er 8f on the straight course) were 15, 16, 31, 33, 23, 29, 19, 20, 17 . It is thus reasonable to assume that high draws might have a bias today in some of the big handicaps, notably the Palace Of Holyrood House Stakes.

Albany Stakes (G3) – 2:30 pm

20th June: I’m going to ignore the trends on this to a point. I think AOB can win this – I’m just not convinced it is FAIRY GODMOTHER that will be the one. Instead, I suggest HEAVEN’S GATE has more upside in a race where some bookies offer 4 places. He was a comfortable winner at the Curragh LTO and was backed to do so. SIMMERING gets a Capital P from Timeform and his debut was in a hot little York Novice going down by 1½l to a Kalrl Burke hot pot Arabie. That went on to win a G3 NTO at Chantilly. The race has produced two other winners as well. Talking of Karl Burke, his LIBERALISED looks way overpriced, and he will have a good idea of comparative ability to Arabie.

HEAVEN’S GATE 4 pts Win – SIMMERING 3 pts e/w – LIBERALISED 2 pts e/w

22/22 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs No 5-6-7-12
22/22 – Never raced at Ascot before No 13
21/22 – Finished in the top 3 last time out No 11-16-18
18/22 – Won their previous race
16/22 – Won by either a Feb or Mar foal No 1-2-4-10-14-15-17-20-22-24

Ignoring for the moment the Winner LTO stat, I’m left with a shortlist of six: BURNING PINE – FAIRY GODMOTHER – HEAVENS GATE – PEREGRINE FALCON – SIMMERING – TRULY ENCHANTING.

If you then utilise the Won LTO stat you lose PEREGRINE FALCON and SIMMERING – but that still leaves you the ante-post favourite FAIRY GODMOTHER at 7/4, TRULY ENCHANTING the third-favourite at 8/1 and HEAVEN’S GATE  at 12/1… all three trained by AOB. Wes Ward runs BURNING PINE, which looks at e/w value at 14/1 at the moment.

The  rest of the trends are:

15/22 – Placed favourites
11/22 – Previous winner over 6f
10/22 – Returned a double-figure price
6/22 – Winning favourites
5/22 – Won by trainers Channon (2) or Hannon (3)
3/22 – Ran at Sandown last time
2/22 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of the last 10)
16 of the last 19 winners came from double-figure stalls
12 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 11-15 (inc)

Commonwealth Cup (G1) – 3:05 pm

21st June: ELITE STATUS is now a non-runner which leaves me with JASOUR as the likely winner. However, I do like the look of both EVADE – if he handles the ground – and GIVEMETHEBEATBOYS, who might allow INISHERIN to kick on and leaving him probe to one of my suggestions arriving on the scene at te moment critique

JASOUR 5 pts Win – EVADE 3 pts e/w – GIVMETHEBEATBOYS 2 pts e/w – The three is x x 1pt combination Exacta and with INISHERIN in a 24 x ¼pt boxed Trifecta

9/9 – Won over 6f before No 3-9-10-13
8/9 – Had run at Ascot before No 5-7-8-11-12-14
7/9 – Drawn 8 or lower
7/9 – Won 3+ times before No 16-17-19-22
5/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
4/9 – Rated 117 or higher
3/9 – Winning favourite
3/9 – Won last time out
2/9 – Came from stall 8

Not much to go on – but I would have a plausible list of VANDEEK [4/1], ELITE STATUS [7/1], BUCANERO FUERTE [8/1], RIVER TIBER [8/1], JASOUR [11/1, GIVEMETHEBEATBOYS [20/1]

Coronation Stakes (G1) – 3:45 pm

21st June: One of the best races of the week, with a deep examination of Guineas form, with OPERA SINGER deposed as favourite by RAMATUELLE. After an early season setback, OS  started her campaign in the Irish Guineas, where connections warned that she was behind where they wanted her and that she’d come on for it, so finishing third to FALLEN ANGEL is solid form. She has to be respected here, though the form of RAMATUELLE is top quality in what is a strong field. She was second to BEAUVATIER on her second start who ended the season with a third-place effort behind ROSALLION in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. RAMATUELLE was also second to VANDEEK in the Prix Morny (Evs Fav) and beat HIS MAJESTY (rated 104+) in the G2 Prix Robert Papin. She is by JUSTIFY out of a firm ground-winning mare, so the surface will be sound for her. She would have won the 1000 Gns but for the jockey, so I think will improve to beat ELMALKA. PORTA FORTUNA is a classy mare, and Tom Marquand retains his ride from the Guineas, where she finished second. That was a big effort as it was her first start of the season, so one can imagine she’ll come on for it. She has form that ties in with BUCANERO FUERTE and she was second at the Breeders’ Cup over a mile, so the ground can’t be quick enough for her.


22/22 – Had won over at least 7f before No 7-8
20/22 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/22 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season No 1
17/22 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 previously No 3-10-11

At this stage, I’m left with four: CONTENT [25/1] – ELMALKA [4/1] – FOLGARIA [66/1] – OPERA SINGER [13/8]. they include the first two in the betting market

These are the rest of the trends:
15/22 – Had won over at least a 1 mile before
10/22 – Ran in that season’s English 1,000 Guineas
10/22 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
9/22 – Had run at Ascot before (3 winners)
8/22 – Unplaced last time out
6/22 – Ran in that season’s Irish 1,000 Guineas
3/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/22 – Trained by John Gosden
2/22 – Trained by Jessica Harrington (2 of the last 6)

15 of the last 17 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
No winners from stall 1 in the last 18 runnings
14 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 5 or higher
10 of the last 18 winners were non UK-trained – French (4), Irish (6)

Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) – 4:25 pm

DEAKIN and SHADOW DANCE have high draws and would be on my short list.



20/21 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old No 31-23-17-46-44-32-28-25-19-6-4-2
19/21 – Had won over at least 1m2f before No 11-20-29-42
19/21 – Had at least 2 previous career wins to their name No 35-22-12
17/21 – Carried 9-0 or more No 36-37-39-44-45-46-43-40-42-41-38
15/21 – Placed last time out

That leaves me with by price: DEAKIN [8] LA YAKEL [12] DAVIDEO [16] FAIRBANKS [16] INTELLOTTO [16] SEA KING [16] AL ANOUD [20] KNIGHTSWOOD [20]

These are the rest of the trends 
14/21 – Had won over 1m4f before
13/21 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
11/21 – Trained by Hughie Morrison (4), Johnston (3) or Sir Michael Stoute (4)
11/21 – Had run at Ascot before
8/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/21 – Ran at either York or Epsom last time (inc 7 of last 11 winners)
7/21 – Unplaced favourites
6/21 – Ran at Newmarket last time
5/21 – Winning favourites
4/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
16 of the last 18 winners came from a double-figure stall

Sandringham Stakes (Handicap) – 5.05 pm

One has to be wary of the trends as the ratings all changed 6 years ago.  KITTY ROSE – FLIGHT OF FANCY – CAT NINJA – BELLARCHI

FLIGHT OF FANCY 3 pts e/w – CAT NINJA 2pts e/w – BELLARCHI 1 pt e/w

18/22 – Had between 2 and 4 previous runs that season NO 4-14-16-19-20-22-25
18/22 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
17/22 – Had never run at Ascot before No 15-24-33
17/22 – Had won over at least 7f before No 13-40
16/22 – Placed in their previous race No 5-7-18-21-26-28-29-30-31-35-36-39-42
15/22 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
14/22 – Carried 8-11 or more (Everything above 18) No 23-27-32-34-37-38-41

Race favourite INDELIBLE makes the trends as does CHIC COLOMBINE – EVERLASTING – CAT NINJA

These are the rest of the trends
12/22 – Won their last race
9/22 – Returned a double-figure price
8/22 – Had exactly 3 runs already that season
8/22 – Winning favourites (1 co, 1 joint)
4/22 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer

King Edward VII Stakes (G2) – 5:40 pm

Often called the Ascot Derby, the race is similar to that race in much the same way as Spaghetti Bolognese is similar to Tournedos Rossini – in that they both have Beef involved. OK, I’m being a little unfair in that the Derby 2nd did turn up last year and win it and that five of the previous seven winners had their last start in The Derby and had finished 2-3-5-10-10 in the race. Two come from there this year:  VOYAGE, who dumped Pat Dobbs at the start of the race, and MACDUFF, who was quietly fancied at 14s, but once again failed to settle. He’s wearing CPs for the first time; presumably, it will be the snip if they don’t work! I would worry about VOYAGE who is by Golden Horn and his progeny have struggled all week on this fast ground. I’d quite fancy WAR ROOMS at a big price. MONDO MAN was a 4½l 5th in the Prix du Jockey Club.

MACDUFF – WAR ROOMS – MONDO MAN 3 pts e/w each – The three with DIEGO VELAZQUEZ and SPACE LEGEND in a 20x½pt boxed Exacts

These trends are simply too thin to provide any real comfort.

20/21 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
19/21 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the
17/21 – Had never raced at Ascot before
15/21 – Finished in the top three last time out
15/21 – Placed favourites
13/21 – Had won at least 2 previous races during their career
12/21 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
10/21 – Had already won a Listed or better class race
8/21 – Winning favourites
3/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/21 – Trained by John Gosden
3/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/21 – Trained by the Johnston yard
Just 1 winner from stall 1 in the last 18 runnings
12 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 4-9 (inc)
15 of the last 17 winners returned 9/1 or shorter

Palace Of Holyrood House Stakes (Handicap) – 6:15 pm

21st June: See my note re Draw Bias at the top. These are tricky selections… but my shortlist is:



Just 4 previous runnings

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