A weekend of endless action and promises

Alcohol, TV and sport – that is a reasonable summary of the rest of this summer, as far as I can make out, with a small chance of nuclear fallout.

Between now and July 4th—and I have already written Smarmier’s victory speech on the theme of Independence —we have to suffer 247 screen-to-audio-to-print coverage of half a dozen people who are astonishingly in charge of their political parties, lying to us about the achievements they will fail to deliver, but which failure will be the fault of somebody else. Plus the Euros, T20 World Cup, Wimbledon, Tour de France, French Open and on and on and on. Sadly, and much like the politics, the Nation will win little, but talk up a good fight.

To maintain the status quo, we must accept or even ignore their current level of incompetence. We know that their catalogue of combined inadequacies is almost beyond measure—and we have kept propping up the fractured structure because we couldn’t think of a solution. I am back to politics, not UEFA, British Athletics, or Olympic funding.

How do we get around the fact that we have had a vote on Brexit, which various institutions have deliberately obfuscated because they saw it as being in the public interest? How do we justify the 72+ public inquiries launched between 1990 and 2023, compared with a mere 19 in the previous 30 years? Why do we need to spend almost a billion pounds on Inquiries to discover that The Post Office was corrupt from the top down and that Lady Mome was a dissembler, and that flammable materials on the outside of a building are dangerous? We produce a report about an NHS and political cover-up and no- one is arrested for manslaughter or lying to parliament. Why does every Defence Contract overrun in time and costs. As does every government IT project over the last twenty years. As does every NHS building. I say again – why has no one been arrested for their crimes against the state – and I struggle to accept that because of the 200 years it seems to take to run an Inquiry, you cannot bring criminal cases against those involved in the Inquiry because that would be unfair… never mind the Statute of Limitations. But where are the sacked and the disavowed? Where are the arrested Councillors in Rochdale? Where are the state-supported private prosecutions?

So if the politicians can’t do that – is there anything else they could be doing? Why can’t the Government tell all builders to install solar panels or heat pumps on all new builds? Why can’t they bend the Water companies to the Government’s will? Point to three things – other than Gay marriages – that the Conservative Government has introduced in the last 14 years that have made this country stronger, better, and more competitive – and then prove it. We have no survivable military capability – our forces have been virtually eradicated, and our nuclear capability is probably defunct. Our medical system is broken, as are our borders, education and industries. The only reason we will be carbon-neutral by 2030 is we wont be producing or consuming anything to create a greenhouse gas.

Lest my darling readers think me harsh, by balanced contrast then, think of the Blair years. Then a centrist Scot decided that things could only get better by declaring that we would all be made equal in the eyes of educationalists and employers. Here was a man who created an education system where it was impossible to fail. Brilliantly, Blair reinvented known mathematical laws by making the Lowest Common Denominator as near an infinite number as Pi – all the poor saps had to do was saddle themselves with an unrepayable student debt whilst studying something that could never give them a job for life because they had no skills and often no talent. Meanwhile, by leaping into bed with Bush (thus guaranteeing himself a global “peace” job for life), he fractured almost the entire Middle East, starting with Iraq and ultimately leading to the horrors of Afghanistan. At home, despite the introduction of the MLW (more accurately, a legacy of John Smith), the cost of housing doubled in Blair’s ten-year tenure.  The surge in house prices after 1997 directly resulted from Buy-to-Let mortgages increasing 30-fold under Blair – while his government built fewer council homes than Margaret Thatcher. Never mind, they said, the UK’s manufacturing production would help balance the books – except Labour managed, between 1997 and 2007, to lower output from all manufacturing by 3% – while a million workers lost their jobs. By contrast, between 2000 and 2006, manufacturing output rose in the US, Germany and France. “Carry on Lads“, “Britain at it’s Best“, except that manufacturing as a share of the overall economy fell more under Blair than Thatcher and Major combined.

So, I’m sorry if you think these next six week have any political purpose, and I’m even sorry that we still have no real selectable choices when it comes to a credible political party. Reform won’t do anything except fracture the Tory vote; the Lib Dems will have a dozen seats; The Greens will possibly have four seats, and the Tories will have to think hard about the future. On or just after July 5th, Proportional Representation will be the cry heard from the Liberal arts – hoping that its introduction would mean one would never get the Tories back in power, but forgetting that the nation would run the risk of a Far Right or Far Left coalition group – as is happening across the rest of Europe – very quickly. Sadly, we don’t have a space on all the voting papers for NOTA…

Talking of None of The Above, we face an intense weekend of sport, from Golf to the FA Cup, from Monaco to Goodwood, and I shall try to mention them all in the next few inches!

1:15 HAYDOCK Betfred Silver Bowl Hcap Cl2 (3yo) 1m 13 run (4 places gen – 5 places Skybet)

CERULEAN BAY 5 pts e/w

1:30 GOODWOOD William Hill Harroways Hcap Cl2 (3yo) 7f 14 run (4p gen 5p Skybet)

Each of these is in with a squeak – especially given the strong likely pace. One to benefit from too harsh a pace might be BLUE PRINCE who finished like train LTO.  QIRAT is making his handicap debut, his first race since being gelded and looks on a handy mark – but is he ready to rumble? NEWSREADER debuts on Turf from a decent draw and from what looks a fair mark, and I’m also taken by ROBBO, who might try and take this from the front. In that respect, he, THE CAMDEN COLT and DRAGON LEADER might battle it out btween them – but only one of them has C1 Listed winning form.

DRAGON LEADER 3 pts e/w – with ROBBO, QIRAT and BLUE PRINCE in a ¼ pt CFC.

1:50 HAYDOCK Betfred Temple Stks (G2) Cl1 (3yo+) 5f 10 run(3p gen 4p Skybet, Betfred)

With the ground, VADREAM has come in for support, and whilst ROGUE LIGHTNING looks a decent Royal Ascot bet, I’m not keen on this ground for him, despite his Abbay fifth on Arc day and even with James Doyle getting the ride. The same could be said for ASFOORA, perhaps being given a pre-Ascot run. EQUALITY is effective on GS ground, but I don’t think we’re anywhere near that yet. On the positive side, he’s race-fit. SEVEN QUESTIONS sprang a surprise when pipping VADREAM and BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND in the Palace House Stakes, but the 5th KERDOS stayed on in eye-catching style, and Clive Cox has won this before. He’s got a great draw and looks overpriced.

VADREAM 4 pts Win – SEVEN QUESTIONS 2 pts e/w – KERDOS 2 pts e/w – 6 x ¼pt RFC

2:05 GOODWOOD William Hill Height Of FashionStks (Fillies) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f 10 run

FRANCOPHONE*** – KITTERIDGE 2 pts e/w – ½pt RFC

2:25 HAYDOCK Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Sandy LaneStks (G2) Cl1 (3yo) 6f 8 run

VANDEEK Wins INISHERIN  would be my second thought, but it must keep drying out. However, I have been waiting for Richard Fahey’s AIRMAN to turn out again and who I thought would attend York’s Dante meeting. It’s a bit of a punt – that’s what we’re here for!

AIRMAN 2 pts e/w

2:45 YORK William Hill Extra Place Races Daily Hcap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f 12 run

The winner is one of these three unless the winner from 2017, COPPER KNIGHT breaks every trend in the book. VINTAGE CLARETS – RABAAH – KORKER. I’m going to go for the one that I think will be up there behind a pace set by COPPER KNIGHT.

RABAAH***

3:00 HAYDOCK Betfred Hattrick Heaven New Boston Hcap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 7f 7 run

ENGLISH OAK***  – to beat STERLING KNIGHT 2 pt SFC

3:20 YORK William Hill Bronte Cup Fillies’Stks (G3) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m6f 10 run

TREVAUNANCE 4 pts e/w

3:30 HAYDOCK Betfred Nifty 50 Hell Nook Hcap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 2m 14 run (4p gen 5p Skybet, Paddypower)

SOLENT GATEWAY won this last year with LAW OF THE SEA 2nd. Both, I think, can be ignored in their current form. By contrast, DIVINE COMEDY looks like 2m won’t be a problem judging by his Kempton race last November, and his Donny seasonal debut will have sharpened him up for this. ZIMMERMAN will handle the ground and might even need a shower to be in the mix; LEGENDARY DAY won Donny’s Mallard Handicap in September from a 1lb higher, is ground versatile, and if you ignore his last two, he’s weighted to win.

ZIMMERMAN 3 pts Win – LEGENDARY DAY 2pts e/w – YORKINDNESS 2 pts e/w

3:40 CURRAGH Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas (G1) (3yo) 1m 8 run

The ground has come right for 2000 Guineas runner-up ROSALLION. He looked a fair price at evens but is rapidly contracting and is still the one to beat – if he is held up a little longer this time so that his speed can be bought into play. HAATEM was a 1¾l  back in third, and I don’t believe he is here to make up the numbers. Aidan O’Brien runs RIVER TIBER, UNQUESTIONABLE and MOUNTAIN BEAR – all three making their seasonal debuts. RIVER TIBER is fancied by Ryan Moore, but will he stay 8f and is there enough cut? UNQUESTIONABLE & MOUNTAIN BEAR were 1st and 2nd in the BC Turf, before which UNQUESTIONABLE finished 1l 2nd to ROSALLION, and I think he’ll like this ground. MOUNTAIN BEAR also looks held by UNQUESTIONABLE on their last time running, but he made his effort out wide that day and would have finished closer if he had been as well positioned as his stablemate. You can make an each-way case for him.

ROSALLION*** – MOUNTAIN BEAR 2 pts e/w

*** The four selections in 6 x 2pt Doubles, 4 x 1pt Trebles, 1 x 1 pt Accumulator

We’ll play these selections in 2 pt doubles and 1 pt trebles.

In The FA Cup you have to fancy Phil Foden at 7/5 with Bet365 to score anytime. He ended the season with 26 goals in all competitions, including five goals in his last five appearances, and scored a brace in the last Manchester derby – meaning he now has six goals in his last four starts against the Red Devils.

Bruno Fernandes at 11/4 to be yellow-carded – are you kidding? Bruno Fernandes had nine yellow cards in 35 Premier League games this season and when it comes to the big games he sucks them up: carded in the FA Cup tie against Liverpool, the Champions League fixture at Galatasaray and I know there are more historically.

Ilkay Gundogan famously scored within 11 seconds in last season’s FA Cup final and that early goal was by no means an outlier in recent Manchester derbies. Six of the last eight Manchester derbies have seen a goal scored in the opening ten minutes, with only City’s win at Old Trafford last October and United’s home victory in January 2023 taking longer. The first goal in 10 minutes is 11/4 with Bet365.

And finally Man City to win both halves at 13/8 and 4/5 to score in both halves is crazy.

If you have a Sporting Index account, I would be a seller of the time of the third match goal at 67.5 – 70.5 market at 1 pt a minutes and ditto the time of the first match goal currently 28-31 at 2pt per minute If we’re right that should be about 30+ profit.

The Monaco street circuit is one of the most challenging on the Formula 1 schedule, with the 19-turn, 2.074-mile circuit winding through the streets of Monte Carlo. With tight turns, several different racing surfaces and little room for passing, qualifying is paramount. The pole winner has gone on to win the Monaco Grand Prix in 13 of the last 21 years, with Verstappen darting off to a nearly 28-second win last year after earning pole position. Here is my Monaco GP finishing order. I would be having a close look at the Top3 and Top 5 markets and going with my selections accordingly.

1 Max Verstappen
2 Charles Leclerc
3 Lando Norris
4 Oscar Piastri
5 Carlos Sainz
6 Sergio Perez
7 Lewis Hamilton
8 George Russell
9 Fernando Alonso
10 Yuki Tsunoda

Our golf bets currently look as though we’re pinning our hopes on Tony Finau. Time will tell.