Ascot Saturday 19th October Mud, Mug Punters and Mohaather

Those of you looking for winners today will do well to read today’s beautifully reasoned advice from The Tissue. Personally I have a shocking record when it comes to figuring out winners when the ground is soft at Ascot. I think I get obsessed by the form lines that, with quality horses, tend to be on firm and struggle to assess the impact of the going. If I had any sense I would simply not bet today. But I would rather be a mug punter than be bored so I have opted to try and pick out a few left field selections in the hope of finding a long priced winner. Hopefully my selections will provide some sport. Those who prefer profit to excitement might do well to instead follow the sage advice of the Longcot Legend.

13:35 SANDS OF MALI 1pt e/w THE TIN MAN 1pt e/w BRANDO 1pt e/w

The two above are former winners of this race, as Librisa Breeze, and go well on heavy ground. For this reason I backed them both ante-post – mainly based on the weather forecast as well as the news that Fahey thinks that Sands of Mali is back in good order after being out of sorts earlier in the season. They both have excellent pilots in Murphy and Tudhope so I will stick with them.

Advertise is the class horse in the race, Hello Youmzain may be progressive and One Master impressed at Longchamps. There are several more but if I do have another bet it will be on BRANDO. The form is solid, he is well drawn and, as a son of Pivotal, will handle the going.

14:10 WITHOLD 1pt e/w

Opposing Stradivarius is not a good idea. But as a mug punter I will want an e/w interest and a tactical ride from Watson might make it difficult for all but Gosden’s superstar to overhaul him.

14:45 FLEETING 1pt e/w TARNAWA 1pt e/w

I like Star Catcher here but I think the price is too short. I like Anapurna but I thought Fleeting was impressive at Longchamps and might have won with more luck in running.

Tarnawa has impressed everybody with her recent runs in Ireland. The form is hard to measure but she has looked impressive. Not sure about the going but she was comfortable on soft ground when winning at Cork.

15:20 MOHAATHER 2pts e/w KING OF COMEDY 0.5pts e/w

A good friend of mine interrupted his poker game late last night to advise me to have a look at Marcus Tregoning’s colt. The rationale is simple – if Mohaather runs like he did in the Greenham he can win this. He is coming back from a long lay off but at 25-1 he is good value here.

King of Comedy is a total clown of a horse and I have lost money on him more than once. What he needs is his knackers removing but as a beautifully bred Listed race winner he will escape his just desserts. The alternative to gelding is experimenting with head gear. On the grounds that there is a chance of that working I will risk a few quid trying to recoup previous losses.

16:00 PONDUS 1pt e/w

I think Magical will win this but the price is tight. Addeybb is the mudlark in the field but I am still not convinced that Haggas is in great form despite One Master’s romp in Paris. Deirdre is a favourite as I backed her at Goodwood but I don’t know about the going. Pondus acts on heavy ground, finished only a couple of lengths behind Addeybb at Haydock and is 33-1. A small e/w longshot.

16:40 CLON COULIS 1pt e/w GLEN SHIEL 1pt e/w FLAMING SPEAR 1pt e/w

Clon Coulis was unlucky at Newmarket and I think we might see Jamie Spencer produce her late to sweep past the tiring frontrunners.

At even longer odds, Clon Coulis’s sibling Glen Shiel looks very good value at 20-1.

I have also decided to make a late addition with bookies paying up to six places for this race. Flaming Spear has good course form and, being by Lope de Vega, should handle the ground. He has got some temperament issues but the current 28-1 looks generous.

 

 

 

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