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Burgers and Beer – it must be BC

Capt. Kneesup

Capt. Kneesup

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Were I to be asked to take High Office, I’m afraid that some of my beastlier attributes might come out – not least my intense dislike of any kind of extremism or radicalism. I loathe converts, whose newly discovered beliefs are so much more important and worthy than those who believed in the beginning. I detest self-righteousness when it is masquerading as morality, I am appalled by most concepts of Socialism where the Lowest Common Denominator can clone Ordinary and Lazy so quickly that it makes a Pandemic look controlled. But what I truly loathe more than anything else is a Conservative Government with an 80 majority, that is so badly managed that it actually loses an MP, probably the next election and certainly any chance of a second full term for the PM. The level of incompetence is breathtaking and it is hard to grasp just how polarising that jackass is in No 10. Stap me vitals, even Hezza and Clark would be more acceptable than this bunch of nitwits. Oh hang on, am I being too extreme – too radical? No – I have mentioned neither Gibbets nor tumbrils!

Talking of Juveniles driving the agenda, today is the Kids day out at the beach. We’re off to Del Mar on Breeders Cup Friday and there will be some superb racing to tape or better still, stay up, watch live, and then have a lie-in tomorrow!

They take race timings far more seriously here, with one leading clocker, possibly even the best West Coast clocker, theorised that Del Mar’s proximity to the Pacific Ocean was the reason for the BC results from four years ago when the meet was last staged at Del Mar. From the 13 Championship races, only two jollies went in; seven winners had double-digit SPs – including Bar Of Gold at 66-1 in the Filly & Mare Sprint. The reason, he posited, was that an especially high tide had caused more atmospheric moisture, which had seeped into the track, which had drifted, via the camber, to the inside rail, which then made the inner rail dead. Hey… what do I know?

The one thing that might make your evening more fun is the ability to bet on the American Tote. You can do that through Betfair – with who I assume you have an account. Simply go to their Exchange Page (or App). I am talking this through as though you are on a PC or laptop. On the left-hand side, you’ll find My Markets. Drill down to Horse Racing then Tote USA. Alternatively, you can find the page here: https://usatote.betfair.com/tote

So for example where I have suggested a forecast bet in the 23:10, Click on the first drop-down menu to select Del Mar and then in the 2nd drop-down window select the time and the bet. The options are WinWPS which is Win (1st), Place(1st or 2nd), Show(1st, 2nd, 3rd), the US equivalent of Each-Way; Double Winner of that race and the winner of the following race; Exacta: exactly the same as ours; Trifecta: exactly the same as ours; Pick 3: The winner of this and the following two races; Superfecta: 1st four past the post. In the example of the race at 23:10, I suggested 2-8, 2-8, 7-10, 7-10 which would give 4 lines at say $1 each. I hope that makes sense and helps. Kicking On…

9:50 BC Juvenile Turf Sprint (G2) (2yo) (Turf) (2yo) 5f 12 runners

I need Wes Ward on my side, in light of his winning the last two runnings and TWILIGHT GLEAMING and AVERLY JANE seem the obvious pair to consider. The latter is unbeaten and must be an obvious Win bet. If GO BEARS GO handles a turn, he might well arrive late and 25/1 is too big.

AVERLY JANE Win – GO BEARS GO e/w

10:30 BC Juvenile Fillies (G1) (2yo Fillies) (Main Track) (Dirt) (2yo) 1m½f 6 runners

The favourite is ECHO ZULU and if she’s given permission to ride the front, she might not give it up too easily. The stalkers are likely to be HIDDEN CONNECTIONS and JUJU’S MAP, although the former’s prep race at Churchill Downs looked ordinary, with various lines suggesting JUJU’s MAP is the stronger horse. I think for Forecast purposes I shall put in TARABI, who chased home ECHO ZULU in the Spinaway at Saratoga and will have improved after a break.

ECHO ZULU WinTARABI e/w +Exacta

11:10 BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) (2yo Fillies) (Turf) (2yo) 1m 14 runners

Any BC entry from the US’ pre-eminent trainer Chad Brown has to be investigated  He’s won the Juvenile Fillies Turf five times in the past and both CONSUMER SPENDING and HAUGHTY. I’m not convinced by the former’s credentials – she beat nothing of consequence in her last race – but equally, this is exactly the time when they might be improving. I can’t make up my mind whether Chad has kept them hidden, or simply run them in lesser races to give them time. Because I simply don’t know, I look to the market for guidance and I can get 8/1 about both of them – suggesting that nobody else know either! There looks to be a very strong early pace for this, which might end any chance for many of these who are stepping up in distance. SAIL BY is not one of those and is trained by Leah Gyarmati, (who?) but the horse neither knows nor cares whether the Brits know her Trainer. As a result, she is the wrong price. She won Belmont’s Miss Grillo Stakes, a race that has historically proven a good guide, and I had assumed she would be around 10s, but no, she’s 20/1 with Skybet and Betfred for 5 places! That is fabulous value. She ran in the first two all the way at Belmont and she showed good tactical speed and a willingness to stay focussed. With the advantage of an inside draw, (providing the inner isn’t riding dead), CAIRO MEMORIES could become a player in the final 300 yards. She looks uncomplicated and is happy to be covered up and produced late. Her Santa Anita Listed race was run exactly like that and it produced a fast time for a juvenile race. This is a step-up for her – but that’s also the case for a number of other market leaders. Maybe this is the race for an Exocet attack on the Boxed Trifecta and Quinella

CAIRO MEMORIES Win – SAIL BY e/w.

Put those two in positions 1 and 2 and then CONSUMER SPENDING and HAUGHTY in 3 & 4

11:50 BC Juvenile (G1) (2yo C & G) (2yo) 1m½f 12 runners

Jack Christopher is now a non-runner which leaves me with Bob Baffert’s CORNICHE. He has run and won at Santa Anita (same surface) around two turns when winning the American Pharoah LTO and his speed will see him get a decent spot from his outside draw. Sadly I also fancy PINEHURST – another Baffert horse – and I shall have to consider suspending my disappointment at Baffert’s recent run of negative testing – as in testing that bough Baffert, America’s equine vet industry, and the various US racing authorities into negative focus! JASPER GREAT won a 9f maiden by 10l in Japan and whilst the race didn’t appear dazzling, the third has at least won since. The form is difficult/impossible to assess, but ten lengths and a current bookies price of 16/1 is too big.

PINEHURST Win – JASPER GREAT e/w

12:30 BC Juvenile Turf (G1) (2yo Colts & Geldings) (Turf) (2yo) 1m 14 runners

I fancy several in this. MODERN GAMES looked very impressive in The Somerville Stakes at Newmarket and made virtually every yard to beat the decent Trident. He has won 3 of his 5 starts to date, is a front runner, and has drawn the tight rail in one. I might have been more enthused about DUBAWI LEGEND but the draw doesn’t favour him in 14. MG needs to breakfast and clean and by then we’ll know how fast that rail is. If it’s riding dead, he’ll have the option of just moving off the rail. COINAGE is a huge price and yes he is next door to DUBAWI LEGEND, but I rate him no better than 5lbs better than COINAGE but he’s a four-times bigger price. He was well beaten by DAKOTA GOLD LTO, but he had been spooked by something and got very edgy in the paddock. He then ran with the choke out from the front and all in all, it was dismal. Before that, he gave PORTFOLIO COMPANY and LIMITED LIABILITY a 2l beating, and both of them have come out since and won. I am bamboozled by the price he is. DAKOTA GOLD looked a decent sort at Saratoga on the Dirt in September taking his 5½f maiden efficiently. He followed up on Turf at Monmouth over 8f and looked a little green  – but progressive and fast.

MODERN GAMES Win – DAKOTA GOLD e/w – PORTFOLIO COMPANY e/w

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