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24th July 2024 12:15 pm

“A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries."

FOR A BRIEF MOMENT THERE, I THOUGHT I WAS IN TROUBLE

These Donors Are AMAZING Thank You

Just in: CJM… Bunter… Ken… Thank you. They join: William S – MEJi – Peter N – Nigel B – Ken C – Mark S – James D – William M – Fiona M – Julian A – Jonathan H – Mrs V.M – Pete BN – Gavin C – Thom S – Sarah C – Mark S – Sam H – James R

In the back of my mind resides many trivial racing stats. I trot them out periodically for a freshen-up and a bit of a brush-down because they’re going for a gallop quite soon, and you need to know that alles ist in Ordnung, as they used to say in Stalag Luft VII after a dodgy headcount.

I know, for example, that there have been just two German-bred winners from 138 attempts to win one of the 103 Cheltenham Festival Hurdle races since 2003. I know that over the last five years, no horse with more than 23+ career runs has won a Festival handicap hurdle, and none of the 30 that had run in a Chase or a bumper before running in a handicap hurdle won either.

So having seen Danny Mullins turning in such a dazzling performance today, my memory started niggling me about a Willie Mullins “second-string” stat I’d read somewhere. It suggested you made more money backing the 2nd or third runner of his multiple entries in a race than you did backing the usually red-hot favourite. I looked in my notes and found a system I wrote ages ago that told me the following.

Backing any Mullins horse at between 10/1 and 25/1 in a Non-Handicap Cheltenham Festival race with more than two WM runners in it, and where it had a top 3 finish LTO and is neither top 3 in the betting nor bottom, you would have made a profit to date of 70 pts.

After today’s results, you will not be surprised that it works for any Festival!

Danny’s performance, of course, put me in trouble on the betting front today, as nothing seemed to go consistently right from 1:45 pm. Luckily, I had a wild lurch on the last two recommendations at Leopardstown, which duly paid a 64/1 double.

1:25 SANDOWN CLASSIC ANTHEM 3 pts e/w (4 places WIllHill – 888) 7th

1:40 MUSSELBURGH MARBLE SANDS 5 pts Win 1 pts RFC with MONMIRAL WON 7/1 Monmiral 4th

2:00 SANDOWN RED ROOKIE 5 pts e/w (2 places generally) 3rd

2:15 MUSSELBURGH Dutch UNIVERSAL FOLLY – TEMPTATIONINMILAN 7 pts PU & 7th

2:35 SANDOWN DJELO 5 pts e/w 2nd 13/2

2:50 MUSSELBURGH PARK ANNOCIADE 3 pts e/w – BALLYGEARY 2 pts e/wCUBAN CIGAR 1 pt e/w with BENSON in a ¼pt CFC 6th – 5th – 3rd 25/1

3:00 LEOPARDSTOWN STARZOV 1 pt e/w 66/1 6p 16th

3:10 SANDOWN GOOD LUCK CHARM 4 pts e/w – WONDERWALL 2 pts e/w 4th 10/1 – PU

3:35 LEOPARDSTOWN NO BET

3:45 SANDOWN BANGERS AND CASH 4 pts e/w 4th

1:20 LEOPARDSTOWN LOUGHGLYNN 4 pts Win PU

1:50 LEOPARDSTOWN INTELLOTTO 3 pts e/w 7th

2:25 LEOPARDSTOWN FACILE VEGA 3 pts Win 3rd

4:10 LEOPARDSTOWN MADARA 4 pts Win WON 4/1

4:40 LEOPARDSTOWN JEROBOAM MACHIN 2½ pts e/w WON 12/1

Talking of the abuse of statistics and the triumph of Hope over Experience, here are today’s tips

1:10 LEOPARDSTOWN Ladbrokes Nov. Chs (G1) (5yo+) 2m5½f 5 run

No Bet

1:20 MUSSELBURGH bet365 Scottish Triumph Hdl. Cl1 (4yo) 1m7½f 9 run

RORY THE CAT 2 pts e/w

1:40 LEOPARDSTOWN Tattersalls Ireland 50th Derby Sale Nov. Hdl. (G1) (5yo+) 2m 10 run

DADDY LONG LEGS 3 pts e/w

1:50 MUSSELBURGH Never Ordinary At bet365 Hcap Chs Cl3 (5yo+ 0-125) 2m 7 run

BOLLINGERAND KRUG – CEDAR HILL Dutch for 9 pts

2:10 LEOPARDSTOWN Ladbrokes Dublin Chs (G1) (5yo+) 2m1f 5 run

GENTLEMAN DE MEE 3 pts e/w

2:25 MUSSELBURGH bet365 Scottish Supreme Nov. Hdl. Cl2 (4yo+) 1m7½f 7 run

BERTIE’S BALLET 4 pts Win

2:45 LEOPARDSTOWN Chanelle Pharma Irish Champion Hdl. (G1) (4yo+) 2m 5 run

NO BET Stateman should win, but the odds are prohibitive

3:00 MUSSELBURGH Pertemps Network Group Hcap Hdl. Cl2 (5yo+ 0-145) 3m 15 run

I suspect NOBLE BIRTH will still find this ground has too much cut and is a swerve. If it were Good – G/S in places I’d have a pop e/w. He does appear to have however some depth of market support. IMAGINARY DRAGON turned in a career-best performance when winning at Kelso 5 weeks ago and could improve for the step up to 3m. WAKOOL benefits from a liking for this tricky course, he has podiumed in this race the last twice and is overpriced for five places. ALMUHIT from Emmet Mullins  and CURLEY FINGER from Rebecca Menzies concern me. I have almost certainly mentioned the winner and two podiums… probably!

WAKOOL 2 pts e/w

3:20 LEOPARDSTOWN O’Driscolls Irish Whiskey Leopardstown Hcap Chs (G3) (5yo+) 2m5½f 25 run

CLASSIC GETAWAY 3 pts e/w – FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES 2 pts e/w

3:35 MUSSELBURGH bet365 Scottish Champion Chs Hcap Chs Cl2 (5yo+) 2m4½f 9 run

PETIT TONNERRE needs to buck his ideas up but still looks in with a chance. CORRIGEEN ROCK looks overpriced. THUNDER ROCK was unimpressive LTO and is now down in class – with 1st time CP applied might get back to winning way. In a tricky handicap, 11/4 is too skinny. TOMMY’S OSCAR is one of those rarities who can turn in good performances regardless of Hurdle or Fence. His mark is fair (4lbs shy of his last winning mark) but it might just be a bit too far. I can’t believe ARTHUR’S QUAY is the price he is although he’s up in class and another 4lbs.

CORRIGEEN ROCK 3 pts win – ARTHUR’S QUAY 2 pts e/w (if 8 runners)

DUBLIN RACING FESTIVAL SUNDAY NOT ON ITV

12:40 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Paddy Mullins Mares Hcap Hdl. (4yo+) 2m2f RTV 20 run

RISK BELLE found the class, ground and distance all too much here at Christmas, and the drop back in distance and return to handicap company might see an improvement. FOXY GIRL had traffic problems LTO following a decent seasonal pipe-opener. I thought she’d be the favourite, but her price is drifting like a friendless barge. Paddy Power has her at 16/5 so there is still some support..

FOXY GIRL 2 pts Win

3:50 Timeless Sash Windows Hcap Hdl. (4yo+ 0-150) 2m RTV 22 run

ATABOYCHARLIE won over C&D six weeks back on his handicap debut. He’s picked up 12 lbs for that, which might be too much. BIALYSTOK hasn’t really shone since his Punchestown handicap hurdle victory last April and I’m struggling to see why he’s a favourite other than the Mullins/Ricci/Townend combo. I quite fancy ONE LAST TANGO, who won a C&D handicap hurdle some five weeks ago. Picks up 9lb for that and must have podium claims. CONYERS HILL was in the same race, is now at levels and gets another 5 lbs off with a decent claimer.

CONYERS HILL 4 pts e/w

4:25 Coolmore N.H. Sires “Hurricane Lane” Irish EBF Mares Bumper (G2) (4-7yo) 2m RTV 16 run

MONGIBELLO 3 pts Win

 

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