One of my betting systems this year has been to back all progeny of the first-year sire Gleneagles. It has worked very well with a strike rate of over 20% on the turf in the UK and a healthy profit to a level stake. There have also been some tasty e/ws such as Royal Dornach coming 3rd at 25-1 in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood. The two running today are certainly e/w longshots but I will take a small interest.
Firstly, Bright Eyed Eagle in the 1:15 at Redcar for the in-form Ed Walker. Walker’s colt is worth a look at around 10-1 although Mick Channon runs Bentley Wood who impressed on debut and will probably go off as favourite.
Then this evening – Bound For Heaven in the 18:45 at Newcastle. I don’t normally include the AW for this particular system but will make an exception this time. Karl Burke has had a winner and three seconds from four 2yo runners at Newcastle this month. Furthermore, he has publicly stated that he ‘likes’ this filly. Regardless of how she runs tonight she is one for the tracker.
On to a few other suggestions:
Newcastle 18:45
Grace And Virtue 1pt e/w
Excel And Succeed 1pt e/w
A couple more sporting long shots here.
Michael Stoute’s Jovial will go off as the long odds-on favourite for this race and will probably win. However, that is not a value bet in a field of twelve novices – seven of them having their first run.
I have had a little e/w tickle on Richard Fahey’s Grace And Virtue at 33/1 overnight. Fahey has an excellent record with FTO two-year olds at Newcastle and being by Ifraaz out of a Pivotal mare you would expect this filly to act on the All Weather. It is also noteworthy that Fahey has entered into a Listed race in October.
Michael Dod’s Excel And Succeed has run, over 5f at Beverley in August, and I have viewed the video. Running from a poor draw she was very green to start with but finished best of all only 2.5 lengths behind the winner Galadriel – who has since franked the form with a close 5th behind Graceful Magic at Doncaster. Her breeding suggests she will appreciate the extra furlong today and may well be capable of challenging Jovial. She is currently 10-1 and I make her a 5/1 chance.
Kempton 17:00
Autumn Trail 1pt e/w
Rae Guest has a strike rate of over 30% with 2yos at Kempton. In the last month Guest has sent out two 2yos Poets Dance and Rosardo Senorita, both have run twice and both were placed on turf before winning on AW. I am backing Autumn Trail to repeat the same trick after running green but very promisingly on debut at Leicester when finishing third.
Kempton 20:00
Nelson River 1pt e/w
Tony Carroll’s gelding was last seen out coming fourth in the Triumph Hurdle. It is possible that he is very lightly handicapped here back on the flat. He has won on AW in the past and Carroll is in great form with a strike rate of over 17% in the last thirty days.