“A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries."

The Guru Brahmin guides readers in their search for answers

Capt. Kneesup

Capt. Kneesup

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One for me - Half for you!

A number of letters are in today’s post bag, including one from a Mrs Blatter, who lives in Hopp Schwiiz Terrace, Geneva, and who wants to know what the teams must do today to qualify and to thus go through to the final 16.  Well, Mrs Blatter, in the old days you merely had to look in the bottom drawer of The President’s desk to see, but it’s all so different now… and the desk drawer is now somewhere else.

So here is the outcome of all possible combinations for today’s matches:

GROUP E

Remaining fixtures: Thursday (3 p.m. ET): Costa Rica vs. Germany, Japan vs. Spain

Spain

  • Is guaranteed to qualify with a win/draw vs Japan.
  • Will win the group with a victory, or with a draw if Costa Rica draws/lose.
  • If Spain loses and Costa Rica wins, Spain is out.
  • If Spain lose and Germany wins:
    • Japan win the group with six points, Spain and Germany both have four points; and
      • Second place will be decided between Spain and Germany on group goal difference and goals scored, and Germany would have to overturn a deficit of eight goals.
      • If records are identical, the second is decided on fair play points.
      • If that’s level it’s a random draw.
      • Current fair play points: Spain: -1 —- Germany: -3
  • If Spain loses and Costa Rica-Germany is a draw, Spain will finish second unless they lose by at least 13 goals.

Japan

  • Guaranteed to qualify with a win vs. Spain, and will do so as group winners if Costa Rica draws/lose.
  • If Japan and Costa Rica win:
    • Top spot will be decided on group goal difference and goals scored; Japan currently has the goal-difference advantage by six goals.
      • If the scoring record is identical, Costa Rica wins the group head-to-head.
  • If Japan draw and Costa Rica-Germany is a draw, Japan is through in second.
  • If Japan draws and Germany wins:
    • Spain wins the group with five points, Spain and Germany both have four points; and
      • If Germany wins by one goal, it will be decided by group goals scored; if records are identical, e.g. with 1-1 and 1-0 scorelines, Japan finishes second on head-to-head.
      • If Germany wins by more than one goal, Germany is second on goal difference and Japan third.
  • If Japan draw and Costa Rica win, Japan are out.
  • Japan cannot qualify with a defeat.

Costa Rica

  • Guaranteed to qualify with a win vs. Germany, and will do so as group winners if Japan-Spain is a draw.
  • If both Costa Rica and Japan win, the top spot will be decided as noted in the Japan section.
  • If Costa Rica draws and Spain loses, Costa Rica will finish third behind Spain unless they lose overturning a goal-difference deficit of 13 goals.
  • If Costa Rica draws and Japan loses, Costa Rica finishes second.
  • Costa Rica cannot qualify if both games are draws.
  • Costa Rica cannot qualify with a defeat.

Germany

  • Must beat Costa Rica to have a chance, and a win by eight goals secures the top 2 in all scenarios.
  • If Germany and Spain win, Germany finish second.
  • If Germany wins and Spain lose, Germany would have to overturn a goal-difference deficit of eight goals, as noted in the Spain section.
  • If Germany wins and Japan-Spain is a draw, Germany can qualify as noted in the Japan section.

GROUP F

Remaining fixtures: Thursday (10 a.m. ET): Canada vs. Morocco, Croatia vs. Belgium

Croatia

  • Are guaranteed to qualify with a win/draw vs Belgium. Will definitely top the group with a win if Morocco draws/lose.
  • If Croatia draw and Canada-Morocco draw, Croatia win the group. If Croatia draw and Morocco win, Croatia finish second.
  • If Croatia and Morocco both win:
    • The top spot will be decided on goal difference and then goals scored between the two teams, which Croatia currently edge by one goal.
    • If records finish identical, first place is decided on fair play (yellow and red cards.)
    • If that’s level, it’s a random draw.
    • Current fair play points: Croatia: -2 —- Morocco: -2
  • If Croatia and Morocco both lose:
    • Belgium win the group with six points, Croatia and Morocco both have four points; and
      • If both games are lost by the same margin (for instance one goal, 2-1 and 1-0), Croatia will finish second on goal difference with Morocco third.
      • If the games are decided by different margins, second place will be decided between Croatia and Morocco on goal difference and then goals scored.
      • If this is identical, it will be decided on fair play (yellow and red cards.)
      • If fair play is level, it’s a random draw.
  • If Croatia loses and Morocco wins/draws, Croatia is out.

Morocco

  • Is guaranteed to qualify with a win/draw vs Canada. Will definitely top the group with a win if Croatia draws/lose.
  • If Morocco and Croatia both win, top spot is decided as noted in the Croatia section. If both games are draws, Morocco finish second. If Morocco draw and Croatia win, Morocco finish second.
  • If Morocco and Croatia lose, Belgium win the group with second place decided as noted in the Croatia section.
  • If Morocco loses and Croatia win, Morocco finish second.
  • If Morocco loses and Croatia-Belgium is a draw:
    • Croatia win the group with five points, Morocco and Belgium both have four points; and
      • If Morocco loses by one or two goals, Morocco finishes second and Belgium third
      • If Morocco loses by three goals it will come down to group goals scored. If this is level, Morocco finishes second ahead of Belgium on head-to-head.
      • If Morocco loses by four or more goals, Belgium finish second.
  • If Morocco and Croatia lose, Belgium win the group with second place decided as noted in the Croatia section.

Belgium

  • Will definitely qualify with a win vs. Croatia, and will top the group if Morocco draws/lose.
  • If Belgium draw and Morocco win/draw, Belgium are out.
  • If Belgium draw and Morocco lose, Croatia wins the group with second place decided between Belgium and Morocco as noted in the Morocco section.

Canada

Has been eliminated.

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