Queen Mary Stakes (G2) – 2:30 pm
17th June: I’m sticking Andrew Balding’s KASSAYA, a ½ sister to 200 Gns winner Chaldean. she has some terrific form lines developed from her Salisbury debut, including 3rd Megalithic running-up in the Woodcote at Epsom and the fifth winning since. Her Nottingham LTO victory looked very impressive, and Andrew has very high hopes for this one. I also keep having my eye drawn to MAW LAM largely because I saw her run a remarkable race in the Hilary Needler at Beverley LTO. She fell out of the stall having missed the break and had to switch from inside to out to a get run, so things didn’t go ideally, but she did quicken well to hit the front before the winner. She covered more ground than anything else and just got pipped on the line after all her astonishing hard work. But this was the thing I remember – she was the slowest in the field in the first furlong at 15.20 seconds and the quickest in the penultimate furlong 12.36 seconds. Now with Hollie Doyle in the plate and five places on offer, she is the wrong price.
KASSAYA 4 pts e/w – MAW LAM 2 pts e/w
21/22 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out No 1-3-7-13-15-19-27-28-29-31
21/22 – Had between 1 and 3 previous runs that season
18/22 – Had won over 5f (or shorter) before No 8-9-12-16-18-23-26
18/22 – Won their previous race
16/22 – Won by a horse foaled between Jan-Mar No 20-21-25
16/22 – Placed favourites
9/22 – Won from non UK-based yards
8/22 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
7/22 – Returned a double-figure price
5/22 – Trained in the US
4/22 – Trained by Wesley Ward (including 3 of last 9 runnings) Surviving on the trends: BURNING PINE – SATURDAY FLIRT – ULTIMA GRACE
2/22 – Won by trainer Richard Hannon Surviving on the trends: XANTHE
Those who lead or race prominently have the best chance. Based on the very small data sample of known racing styles to date, and dependent on the draw being high, the winner might come from WHERE’S CLARE [25/1] – FLICKA’S GIRL [66/1] – AMESTRIS [16/1] – BOUNTIFUL [40/1] – KASSAYA [14/1] – TRULY ENCHANTING [7/1] – XANTHE [16/1] We have no knowledge of the Wes Ward horses running style – but US sprint horses tend to try to win from the front.
Forced to recommend one – KASSAYA e/w
The Queen’s Vase (G2) – 3:05 pm
17th June Well, you can be wrong, and then you can be undone by AOB. He surprised us all by deciding to run ILLINOIS here rather than in the King Edward VII Stakes – which means he is now the favourite – pushing out HIGHBURY, who I had already backed, as indicated below. I had also backed Jess Harrington’s BIRDMAN each-way at 7-1. So HIGHBURY is now 4/1 and BIRDMAN is 11/2. That said, they are all best with some cut – and they ain’t going to get that as far as I can see. While I was looking for an angle on this, I looked at the race ILLINOIS should have been in to see that Space Legend is the favourite based on his terrific scrap LTO at Goodwood in the Cocked Hat. He had traffic problems for well over a furlong and should have beaten the Lingfield Derby Trial third – MEYDAAN. So I’m sticking with my HIGHBURY bet – I’m throwing in BIRDMAN, but I’m adding an each-way double on MEYDAAN on SPACE LEGEND on Friday.
Dutch HIGHBURY – BIRDMAN 7 pts Win – 3 pt e/w double MEYDAAN and SPACE LEGEND (King Edward VII, Friday)
19/21 – Had never raced at Ascot before No 14
15/21 – Placed last time out No 3-8-9-12-13-16-17
13/21 – Had at least 2 previous career wins
13/21 – Had run over at least 1m4f before
12/21 – Placed favourites
7/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
7/21 – Ran at either Lingfield or Haydock last time out
8/21 – Winning favourites
5/21 – Trained by the Johnston yard
5/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won it 4 times in all)
No winner from stall 1 in the last 18 years
The horse from stall 7 has been placed in 7 of the last 17 runnings (4 wins)
17 of the last 18 winners came from a single-figure stall
7 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 7 or 8
The trends at this stage don’t really rule too much out, and one is left with a credible list of 9 runners. These include five AoB horses, and of those, HIGHBURY is the current 2/1 favourite. What can one say? He will be very hard to beat and much shorter when the final entries are made on Monday. His 7½l victory in a May Leopardstown Maiden was hugely impressive. Actually, facile would be the word, bar the fact that the competition that day has turned out to be above average itself. HIGHBURY beat Himalayan Heights and Highland Blig, who have both gone on to win since, and Vice President and Teofimo have since been placed and look like Black Type horses in waiting. He’s by Galileo, and he won’t mind the ground if it rains. His Irish Derby and Leger entries suggest he is well-regarded, and he would be amongst my bankers for the meeting. Jess Harrington’s BIRDMAN would be my each-way call, especially if the going has the word Soft in it.
Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (G2) – 3:45 pm
17th June: I’m OK with my shortlist—if it rains! The only one who will handle the ground is OCEAN JEWEL. The rest in a tricky race look underpriced.
OCEAN JEWEL 4 pts e/w
19/20 – Had won over a mile (or further) before No 2-3-4-6-9-10-11-17
18/20 – Had at least 1 previous run that season No 8
17/20 – Won by a 4 year-old No 5-7-14-19
16/20 – Finished in the top 3 last time out No 13-16-18
That leaves me three: OCEAN JEWEL [10/1] – NOVUS [20/1] – ROYAL DRESS [16/1]
The latter hasn’t won a Group race to date (won Listed)
I might have a pop at the pair e/w and, through sheer greed and nothing to do with the trends, have a go at RUNNING LION @ 16/1 with Oisin Murphy already booked.
The rest of the trends are:
15/20 – Had won a Group 3 or better race before
13/20 – Favourites that were placed
12/20 – Had run at Ascot before
7/20 – Had won at Ascot before
7/20 – Returned a double-figure price
6/20 – Winning favourites (1 co)
5/20 – Owned by Cheveley Park Stud
4/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
4/20 – Ran at Epsom last time out
4/20 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of the last 12 and 2 of last 4 runnings)
3/20 – Ridden by William Buick (3 of last 12)
2/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2 of last 12)
2/20 – Won by trainer James Fanshawe
2/20 – Winners from stall 1
Only 5 placed horses (2 winners) from stall 1 in the last 20 runnings
Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (G1) – 4:25 pm
This has cut up, and I don’t fancy AUGUSTE RODIN or ROYAL RHYME. I came up with another short list that might handle the ground: INSPIRAL and ALFLAILA. I think INSPIRAL will win, but I think the selection offers some value.
ALFLAILA 3 pts e/w
22/22 – Had won over at least 1m2f before No 5-12-13
21/22 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
21/22 – Won by a 4 or 5 year-old No 6
18/22 – Finished in the top three last time out No 1-3-4-9-11
18/22 – Had at least 1 previous run that season
That leaves me with four at this stage: AUGUSTE RODIN – LUXEMBOURG – ROYAL RHYME – WHITE BIRCH
15/22 – Were previous Group 1 winners No ROYAL RHYME –
15/22 – Placed favourites
12/22 – Won their last race
12/22 – Had run at Ascot before
11/22 – Won by a non-UK based trainer
7/22 – Winning favourites
4/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 of the last 12)
3/22 – Trained by John Gosden (5 wins in total)
2/22 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse (5 wins in total)
3 of the last 16 runnings have gone to a French-trained horse
I think I might just do the Trifecta with those three. I think AUGUSTE RODIN wins – LUXEMBOURG 2nd – WHITE BIRCH 3rd I will be interested to see BLUE ROSE CEN who on a going day has the ability to rattle a few cages.
Royal Hunt Cup (Handicap) – 5.05 pm
Drop-outs everywhere, as might be expected. Leaving me with four from my shortlist, of which only two have a double-digit draw; DAYSOFOURLIVES and KING’S CODE.
Further research tells me that no winner has had an OR higher than 105 this century or less than 93 since 2002. Also 4yo are 11 from the last 14…. which leaves all four again. From Stall 8, Probert can get METAL MERCHANT into the pack without too much trouble. THE GATEKEEPER and REGHEEB will set the pace from the front, and THUNDER BALL will just have to keep up with his draw. This race has really bugged me and sometimes it helps to step away and try a different perspective. I found this quote from Karl Burke about HOLLOWAY BOY who is drawn 23, likes faster ground, arrives fresh and appears in his first handicap.
A former Royal Ascot winner, he missed the second half of last season having been found to be a bit sore after finishing fourth in the Jersey Stakes at the Royal meeting in June. Gelded since, he has had plenty of time off and looks fantastic. Group 1 placed as a two year old, we haven’t made a plan but I think he will benefit from stepping up in trip this year. I haven’t lost faith in him and still believe he is a Group horse.
I’m doing all these on the Nanny.
METAL MERCHANT – HOLLOWAY BOY – THUNDER BALL 2 pts Win – 3 pts place each. – All 3 with STREETS OF GOLD and WILD TIGER in 20 x ½ pt Boxed Exacta
20/22 – Had won over at least a mile before No 2-5-8-9-10-18-27-28-36-50-51-55-64-65
19/22 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old No 66-17-29-35-4-16-44-41-21-53-47-30-23-22-20-48-25-11-13-7-26
16/22 – Carried 9-1 or less No 1-3-6-12-14-19-15
16/22 – Returned a double-figure price
14/22 – Had run at Ascot before No 31-38-39-42-45-46-52-54-57-58-59-60-61
That gives a workable list of 10. If you paid heed to the next stat re 4yo, the remaining seven are:
THUNDERBALL – METAL MERCHANT – DAYSOFOURLIVES – KINGS CODE – LONDONER – BLUELIGHT BAY – ALPHA CRUCIS
Subject to the draw, I would be at this stage looking at METAL MERCHANT, THUNDER BALL and DAYSOFOURLIVES all e/w
The rest of the trends are:
14/22 – Won by a 4 year-old (inc 11 of the last 14 runnings)
12/22 – Had 2 or 3 previous runs that season
6/22 – Won their last race
2/22 – Won by trainer James Fanshawe
2/22 – Won by trainer John Gosden
2/22 – Won by trainer Charles Hills (2 of the last 5)
1/22 – Winning favourites
Overall, high number stalls have dominated in recent years
14 of the last 18 winners came from a double-figure stall
We’ve seen 3 winners from stall 33 in the last 15 runnings
The Kensington Palace Stakes (Handicap) – 5:40 pm
3 previous runnings – not a scooby. ELIM was 2-4 as a 3-year-old last season and was backed into favouritism for her seasonal debut, LTO. She was up 5lb, but ran a solid race and fitness probably told inside the final furlong. AURORA DAWN shaped a fair bit better LTO at Goodwood than the result gives her credit for, missing the break and finding plenty of trouble against the far rail. She stays a mile and can make amends. She is just 4lbs shy of her last winning mark. This time, Saffie Osborne has gone with another Ed Walker charge, CANOODLED who she also piloted LTO and was also slowly away. Just saying… VILLANOVA QUEEN is within 1lb of her last winning mark and her previous pattern-class entries suggest she has been highly regarded by Jess Harrington – but failing at this level. This might be much closer to her abilities.
ELIM 4 pts e/w – AURORA DAWN 2pts e/w
Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) – 6:15 pm
The No-Shows cuts the list down a fair bit their draw are shown beside JM JHINGREE [21] – PONT NEUF [23] – SIR YOSHI [25] – TREASURE ISLE [15]
TREASURE ISLE 6 pts Win – PONT NEUF 2½ pts e/w
On the Tote: SIR YOSHI 1 pt win 3 pts Place – JM JHINGREE 1 pt Win 2 pt place
22/22 – Had at least 1 previous outing No 18-36
21/22 – Won by a foal born April or earlier No 28
19/22 – Had 2 or 3 previous runs No 2-3-5-6-10-12-13-16-19-21-31-32-33-35-41-42
16/22 – Had won over 5f before No 27-29-1-4-7-8-9-11-15-24-38
16/22 – Placed last time out No 14-17-30-44
16/22 – Had never run at Ascot before No 34
That leaves a list of nine: JM JHINGREE – LOOM – MAW LAM – PONT NEUF – POWERFUL NATION – SIR YOSHI – THE ACTOR – TREASURE ISLE – WHISTLEJACKET
THE ACTOR- LOOM – TREASURE ISLE would be the initial go-tos.
The rest of the trends are
12/22 – Returned a double-figure price (inc a 100/1 winner)
11/22 – Unplaced favourites
10/22 – Won their previous race
9/22 – Won by a Feb foal
5/22 – Winning favourites
2/22 – Trained by Wesley Ward
2/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 of last 9)
Just 2 horses were placed from stall 1 in the last 16 runnings
11 of the last 16 winners came from a double-figure stall