I seem to spend more and more time confusing April Fools’ Day with the rest of the month and year. I must believe that some 30% of all the stories I read are fake. For example, surely this selection of today’s headlines, none of which I have gone to any lengths to find, cannot all be believed? Does experience teach us nothing?
JK Rowling could be prosecuted for misgendering trans people, says SNP minister
Ripping up England’s historic counties did not go far enough, insists Lord Heseltine
Cambridge to ‘decolonise the dodo’ in taxpayer-backed project
Duke of York’s charisma fills a room, says ex-BBC producer behind Newsnight interview
Swastikas ‘need to be taken in context’, Met officer tells Jewish woman
Rishi Sunak faces revolt over plan to criminalise homelessness
Archbishop of Canterbury says church is not party political amid Rwanda plan spat
The Muslim Burial Fund charity lied to raise funds for Clapham chemical attacker’s funeral
‘Luxury’ skiing in North Korea: the Russians allowed behind the border
Putin orders 150,000 conscripts into military service
Santander told a customer his gambling was ‘high’
As my headline and today’s racing selections suggest: If you want to improve, be content to be thought foolish and stupid. Epictetus
2:25 PLUMPTON Bob Champion Cancer Trust Sussex Champion Hcap Chase Cl2 (5yo+ 0-145) 2m3½f ITV 7 run
I’d LIKE TO KNOW gets 8 lbs for his LTO win, which was a hose-up. I suspect he should be closer to 138, given the way he’s taken to fences. He should be just as effective on better ground and is the one to beat HUELGOAT has won five chases from 2m 4f to 2m 6f sixth in a chase over 2m 4f at Wincanton on his latest outing in January course distance and this drying ground should suit. BLACK GERRY won this last year from 5lb higher and appears to have lost his form. Back on better ground… who knows? KOTMASK has Plumpton form, although he too is another looking out of sorts. That said he could be forecast material
KOTMASK 2 pts e/w – Insurance to be beaten by I’D LIKE TO KNOW 1 pt SFC
2:55 KEMPTON (AW) POLYTRACK Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Magnolia Stakes Cl1 (4yo+) 1m2f ITV 6 run
Just the six for this Listed race, but they include a dual (Australian) G1 winner, DUBAI HONOUR, in the line-up who is around evens. This is his trip and Ryan Moore has been booked and he could make his class tell on just his second start on the all-weather. LIONS PRIDE is 2 from 2 at Kempton over further, but on paper he is 11lbs shy of DUBAI HONOUR – but that is on Turf. OKEECHOBEE is 1/1 (1m) at Kempton and proved his stamina for 1m 2f when winning at Salisbury last September. He’s open to further improvement this season, and connections will undoubtedly hope he could be a Group performer. FOREST OF DEAN has the benefit of race fitness, raced over a furlong further LTO at Southwell and – as a front runner – might catch them napping. There might be some each-way value here.
DUBAI HONOUR to beat OKEECHOBEE and FOREST OF DEAN 2 x 1pts SFC – FOREST OF DEAN 2 pts e/w
3:30 KEMPTON (AW) POLYTRACK Virgin Bet Daily Price Boosts Hcap Cl4 (4yo+ 0-85) 1m3f ITV 10 run
With a gun to my head – I might have a small pop at Gary Moore’s runner
CRESCENT LAKE 3 pts e/w
4:05 KEMPTON (AW) POLYTRACK Virgin Bet Best Odds Daily Hcap Cl4 (4yo+ 0-85) 6f ITV 12 run
ALMATY STAR makes his seasonal debut and handles Polytrack. He has an OK draw and is just 1lb shy of his last winning mark. This is just his second start for Robert Cowell.16/1 looks overpriced. I can’t be having RADIO GOO GOO who has not fired at all this season and the yard is o-28 in the last 28 days. The favourite is AL BAREZ who went close over C&D on his seasonal return. He got into a spot LTO when a strong finishing 6th of 12 at Wolverhampton. Lightly raced for a 5-year-old and in the mix. AL AMEEN is a danger, if fit after 3+ months off.
ALMATY STAR 2 pts e/w
4:40 KEMPTON (AW) POLYTRACK Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Hcap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-95) 1m ITV 10 run
I do not see VULTAR coming from off the pace to win this tricky mile. He has won both his handicaps to date, including a C&D LTO 19 days ago. He’s got another 5lb for that and probably hasn’t reached his mark yet. FARASI LANE was beaten a short head by VULTAR last time and is 2lb better off, which is probably not enough. If DRAGON ICON is ridden a bit closer to the pace than last time, he might surprise. As you will remember, George Baker’s HIERONYMUS struggled on heavy ground when well beaten in the Lincoln Handicap 9 days ago. However, he has won over C&D and, off just 3lb higher, looks capable of a big run. He is also a front-runner and could take this from the front, with Archie Watson’s EXCEL POWER also pushing him.
HIERONYMOUS 3 pts e/w – EXCEL POWER 2 pts e/w – The pair with BALTIMORE BOY for 2 x ½ pt RFC
5:00 FAIRYHOUSE BoyleSports Irish Grand National Chase (G3) (5yo+) 3m5f ITV 21 run
The ground at Fairyhouse is Heavy. From the entry list of 21, I have narrowed it down to eight, and in racecard numbers, they are 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 19, 20. Any of those numbers could win – but by way of cutting that list down, DAILY PRESENT and WHERE’S FRANKIE have not won a Class 1 race before. GOOD TIME JOHNY has not won on this ground before, and STREET VALUE and FRONTAL ASSAULT have also not been placed on this ground in the last two years, which leaves me three for the Lottery de Fairyhouse.
WE’LLHAVEWAN 3 pts e/w – WHERE IT ALL BEGAN 3 pts e/w – COOL SURVIVOR 2 pts e/w
Remember, there are six places generally available
In other races:
3:15 FAIRY – O’MOORE PARK won a heavy ground maiden here (2m 4f) LTO. He looks the one to beat and 7/4 might look generous by 3:30! WESTERN WALK looks decent, but the ground is a mystery; WHATCOULDHAVEBEEN is a course winner, and the first-time cheekpieces and the step up in distance make 10/1 much more interesting.
WHATCOULDHAVEBEEN 3 pts e/w
5:40 Fairyhouse: BETTER TIMES AHEAD 4 pts Win
One Response
This post PROFIT +27.62
2:25 PLUMPTON KOTMASK 2 pts e/w – Insurance to be beaten by I’D LIKE TO KNOW 1 pt SFC +0.60 -1 = -0.40
2:55 KEMPTON (AW) DUBAI HONOUR to beat OKEECHOBEE and FOREST OF DEAN 2 x 1pts SFC – FOREST OF DEAN 2 pts e/w +7.72 -4 =+3.72 =3.32
3:30 KEMPTON (AW) CRESCENT LAKE 3 pts e/w -6 =-2.68
4:05 KEMPTON (AW) ALMATY STAR 2 pts e/w -4 = -6.68
4:40 KEMPTON (AW) HIERONYMOUS 3 pts e/w 3rd 10/1 +3.00 – EXCEL POWER 2 pts e/w -4 – The pair with BALTIMORE BOY for 2 x ½ pt RFC -2 =-9.68
5:00 FAIRYHOUSE WE’LLHAVEWAN 3 pts e/w 6th 13/2 +0.90 – WHERE IT ALL BEGAN 3 pts e/w 8th 16/1 -6 – COOL SURVIVOR 2 pts e/w PU 50/1 -4 -9.1 = -18.78
3:15 FAIRYHOUSE WHATCOULDHAVEBEEN 3 pts e/w 1st 14/1 +50.40 = +31.62
5:40 Fairyhouse: BETTER TIMES AHEAD 4 pts Win -4 = +27.62