Haydock and Salisbury

HAYDOCK 14:50 GRAND BAZAAR 2pts win CALEDONIAN CRUSADE 1pt e/w

There is nothing particularly rare about a John Gosden trained horse, ridden by Frankie Dettori being favourite for a big race. Grand Bazaar meets this criteria, is beautifully bred and has a Derby entry – so all stacks up that he is the likely winner. A more unexpected fact is the ownership. Most of Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed Al Maktoum’s horses in the UK are with Mark Johnston. There are two with Gosden who have run so far and these are Palace Pier and Cape Palace – both are two year olds, both have run once and both won very comfortably. If this colt is as good as them then he will win this. Given that Frankie only rides very good two-year olds that seems likely to be the case.

However,

I am on a very profitable run at the moment based on the blind backing of Gleneagles runners. Royal Dornoch delivered at 7/4 at Gowran Park yesterday and, for the season to date, progeny of Gleneagles have a strike rate of 22.64% and a £1 level bet profit of £31.75 on the turf. Therefore, I will have to do 1pt e/w on Caledonian Crusade – even although he showed nothing first time out.

HAYDOCK 15:50 DUBAI DOMINION 1pt e/w

Despite the small field this is a tricky race with all six horses looking to have a good chance. However, in my view, the value is with Dubai Dominion. He struggled in the Jersey Stakes at Newmarket LTO but if we put a line through that form he is well weighted. Add to that the fact that he definitely acts on soft ground he looks good value at the current 6/1.

HAYDOCK 16:20 DRAGON’S VOICE 1pt e/w

Like the 15:50 this is a very competitive six horse race. Until the ground turned soft I was planning to bet on Sinjaari in this race. His form behind Headman at Newbury in May and when finishing strongly behind Forest of Dean at Goodwood would make him the selection. I also think Epaulement will go close if he handles the ground. Mr Top Hat will definitely enjoy the conditions but may not be good enough – even with Fallon taking 5lbs off. Again, I am chasing value by choosing Dragon’s Voice at 7-1. However, what is clear is that Jamie Spencer’s mount will handle the soft ground and David Menuisier’s horses are in good form

SALISBURY 15:10 QUICKSTEP LADY 1pt e/w

This was meant to be my longshot pick of the day as she was 20/1 this morning and I got on at 16/1. However, she has come in considerably to 8/1. Quickstep Lady failed to impress on debut but she ran very green and it was a strong race – the horse that came fourth, Ziggle Pops, has since won comfortably. Andrew Balding has a strike rate of 21.55% with two-year olds at Salisbury and shows a £37.86 profit to a level stake. He will have this beautifully bred daughter of Australia ready this time and at anything over 5/1 she represents decent each way value.

SALISBURY 15:40 SO SHARP 1pt e/w GOOD VIBES 1pt e/w

On known form I would expect Summer Romance to win this. She put in a very exciting performance at Newmarket on her second start and went straight in the tracker. There are excuses for her defeat at Ascot but I am not prepared to bet on her at the current 13/8 given there are a few unexposed runners such as the Irish raider Millisle, Hannon’s Dark Star and Tom Marquand’s mount Final Option. I think there is value in backing Good Vibes and So Sharp e/w at their current double figure odds. Good Vibes won a listed race at York in May so clearly has talent whilst Archie Watson’s So Sharp is entered in two Group 1 races which would indicate that he believes that she is a decent filly.

SALISBURY 16:40 YOU’RE HIRED 2pts win

Amanda Perrett is in fine form and this may well be the race that this six-year old gelding ends its run of second places and passes the line first. All the trend followers are all over this runner and there is enough to like about You’re Hired’s second behind Lawn Ranger to believe that she might win this ahead of the feared Light Up Our Stars.

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