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24th July 2024 8:39 am

“A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries."

Longshots at The Curragh

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So we now know that Mum’s Tipple finished the Middle Park Stakes lame in his off fore so his run can safely be struck out.
With Siskin being withdrawn after an unfortunate incident in the stalls we didn’t get the big battle between the three market principals and it could be argued that Earthlight had a bloodless victory.
Certainly, it didn’t tell us much about the Guineas an Pinatubo will retain favouritism.
On to The Curragh today where I am looking for a few longshots:

GARSMAN 1pt e/w 16-1
I think this boy is likely to improve and has showed some pace in his two runs to date.
Most of the rest of the field is pretty unexposed so there is a danger that there is a good one among them. But Garsman has shown enough to be worth an each way punt.

NEW YORK GIRL 1pt e/w 12-1

Unlucky in running on her debut this attractive daughter of New Approach appears to be JP’s second string in this race. But she was unlucky in running on her debut and I fancy her to show some improvement today.

ROYAL COUNTY DOWN 1pt e/w 20-1
This is a very tentative selection but bear with me. As previously mentioned, I am tracking all Gleneagles progeny and am betting blind. So far the strike rate is 22% and we’re well ahead to a level stake. Yesterday we saw Royal Dornoch come in at 16-1 (apologies for selecting his brother Highland Chief but my system did mean that I had an e/w saver) following up on Whatabird’s win in the mud at Haydock. But, what is really interesting is that we are seeing an emerging trend when it comes to ground conditions. So far, the various siblings have had ten runs on ground softer than good and they have produced 4 wins, two seconds and a third. Gleneagles himself won the Irish 2,000 Guineas on yielding ground so there may be something in it. That’s the logic for thinking Royal County Down might spring a surprise today. The argument against is temperament as he has played up going into the stalls a few times and reared at the start in his last race.
Furthermore AP when interviewed about this race waxed lyrical about Innisfree before commenting thus:
“Hopefully Royal County Down can run well too.”
Hardly very encouraging but, at these odds, it might just be worth having a small speculative bet.
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