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25th April 2024 4:04 am

“A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries."

Raceweb’s Cheltenham Festival: The Stats Pack – 20 STATS YOU NEVER KNEW

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William S – MEJi – Peter N – Nigel B – Ken C – Mark S – James D – William M – Fiona M – Julian A – Jonathan H – Mrs V.M – Pete BN – Gavin C – Thom S – Sarah C – Mark S – Sam H – James R

The following statistics, trends, and anomalies, call it what you will  – these numbers  – provide a potentially useful insight into possible Festival race outcomes. The numbers are facts, but as a dear friend once remarked after Mon Mome’s National victory, your statistic on French-bred National runners winning isn’t wrong; it’s simply that there are now two that have won in the last century – so it’s still a useful statistic. However if in 2009 you had laid Mon Mome for a small mortgage you might have been a tad désolé. My long-winded point is Caveat Emptor.

Incidentally, since 1997 the National French-breds are 244 runners in 26 races, producing 3 Winners (1.23%) and 16 places (6.56%) for an A/E of 0.38%… still a reason to double check their creds!

THE FACTS

Statistics show that very few of those who contract the habit of eating survive.

1. CNHF HURDLES – GERMAN BRED RUNNERS

Since 2003, there have been 103 hurdle races contested by 138 German-bred horses, who have won 2 (1.45%) and been placed 19 times (13.77%) for an A/E of 0.23%. Those victories and eight places came in Grade 3 races. Not all hurdle races are contested by German-breds – obvs.

Swerve.

2. CNHF ALL RACES – OFFICIAL RATINGS

Since 2003, 139 runners rated 112 or less have run at the CNHF. 0 Won 5 Placed A/E 0

Swerve – Lay

3. CNHF ALL RACES – PREP RUN AT THESE FOUR COURSES

These four courses – Ludlow, Stratford, Huntingdon and  Taunton – have had 410 horses have their prep race before contesting 225 festival races since 2003. Those 410 horses have produced 4W – 48P A/E 0.21%.

Swerve. Lay with caution.

4. CNHF ALL RACES – Ran on All-Weather or Flat LTO

91 Races – 112 runners – W0 – P8 – A/E 0

Lay

5. CNHF ALL G1 RACES – DAYS SINCE LAST RUN (DSLR)

73 races have been contested by 114 runners since 2003, producing W1 – 7P. A/E 0.32%. That winner was BLACK TEARS in 2021 for Sneezy Foster training on behalf of The Horse Sitter. Most of the rest were priced as no-hopers, but the qualifying list still contains names like El Barra, Brandon Castle, Aaim To Prosper, Shield, Jezki, Quel Esprit, and Starluck. If we only focus on those horses priced 33/1 or less, we would have 34 Races – 43 Runners – W1 – 7p A/E 0.4%

Swerve.

6. CNHF ALL C1 /RACES EXCEPT HUNTER AND HANDICAP CHASES – AGE LIMITS

Since 2003, 138 Horses aged 11 and over have run in 90 races to produce 2W – 18P A/E 0.27%. Both Winners and 15 of the placed runners were aged 11 and both winners and 16 of the placed horses were priced 33/1 or less.

Swerve 11yo but with an eye to the market: Swerve and Lay all 12+yo

7. CNHF G1 CHASES – NO TOP 2 LAST TWO

Since 2003, 87 G1 Festival Chases have been contested by 224 horses that had failed to have a top 2 finish in either of their last two starts. Those 224 horses produced 4W and 26P for an A/E of 0.47%. The 4 Winners and 22 places had all contested a G1 or G2 LTO, which means that No Top 2 in the last two races and contesting any race other than a G1 or G2 LTO would have 58 runners contesting 40 races, producing just four places.

Swerve but be cautious if they ran in a G1 or G2 LTO. Lay if they didn’t.

8. CNHF GRADE 1 RACES – MILES ON THE CLOCK

Since 2003, 85 G1 races have been contested by 135 runners, each with more than 33 career races. Those 135 runners produced one winner and 13 places for A/E 0.15%. That winner was Moscow Flyer in 2005, the 6/4f of The Champion Chase. Sizing Europe was on that list for two years.

Swerve – Lay

9. CNHF – HANDICAP HURDLES 5lb+ CLAIMERS

Until recently, one could almost disregard 5lb+ claimers with no further thought – but that does appear to be changing slightly. Firstly, the figures. 80 Handicap Hurdles since 2003, have been contested by 273 horses ridden by jockeys claiming 5lbs+ producing six winners and 31 places for an A/E of 0.52%. However, half the winners and 20% of the placed horses have come in the last four years and were mainly Irish-based.

Swerve – Be cautious of Irish-based trainers with claimers on horses who were top 3 LTO.

10. CNHF – HANDICAP HURDLES – NOT HURDLING LTO

86 Handicap Hurdle and Handicap Novice Hurdle races were contested by 244 horses since 2003, who had not run in a Hurdle LTO. Those 22 horses produced one winner and 21 places for an A/E of 0.11%. If one only Laid those horses priced at 25/1 or less, one would still be showing a healthy profit, from the 87 runners, producing one winner and 14 places in 53 races. There are two or three runners every Festival, most recently including The Shunter, Birchdale, Canardier, Whiskey Sour, Killultagh Vic, Mount Mews, Max Dynamite, and Caid du Berlais.

Lay

11. CNHF – GRADED HURDLE and NH FLAT RACES – 22/1+ LTO

In Grade 1,2, and 3 Hurdles and Bumpers at The Festival, Only four horses have won from 327 runners in 143 races, with 20 placed. The A/E is 0.45%. There wasn’t much confidence LTO and the results suggest rightly so. Even if market confidence exists on the day, backing every horse e/w less than 25/1, would have shown one an 89 pt loss from 1 winner, and 13 places.

LAY.

12. CNHF C1 NON-HANDICAP RACES – HANDICAP RACE LTO

201 C1 (G1,G2, G3 and Listed) Non-Handicap races were contested by 468 horses since 2003. 11 Won and 50 were placed for an A/E of 0.52%. If you ignore those horses that had a top 3 finish LTO, the figures are 135 races – 224R – 1W – 12P A/E 0.19%.

Lay any runner in any C1 non-hcap race with a top 3 finish LTO in a handicap race – Swerve any that did.

13. CNHF – HANDICAP HURDLES – CHASE OR BUMPER LTO

177 runners contested 67 Handicap Hurdles since 2003, having run in a Chase or Bumper LTO. They produced one winner and 13 places for a 236.75pt loss on e/w stakes to a 1 pt e/w stake. The A/E is 0.15% The winner was 25/1 ANDYTOWN in 2009 for Nicky Henderson.

Lay

14. CNHF ALL RACES – WON AT NAAS or LEOPARDSTOWN LTO

This resulted from some further examination of a stat that focused purely on Leopardstown. This stat includes Naas, and focuses on those horses that ran and won at those two courses in the last ten years, racing between two and three months ago. (26 -90 DSLR). Competing in 65 races, there were 228 qualifiers, who produced 50 Winners and 59 places for an A/E of 1.14. Backing the qualifiers, e/w blind would have generated a 136.22 pt profit with an e/w strike rate of 48.02%.

Back with caution and dependent on price.

15. CNHF – ALL RACES  – WON AT CHELTENHAM LTO

In the last ten years, horses that won at Cheltenham LTO abd raced in the Festival at an SP of between 4-1 on and 20/1 have contested 93 races, producing 22 winners and 21 placed horses. The A/E is 1.34%. If one focuses purely on the handicap races, the results are 26 races in the last ten years contested by 29 runners, producing seven winners and seven places at an A/E of 1.98. Backing them to win blind would have shown a 22 pt profit.

BACK LTO CHELTENHAM WINNERS IN HANDICAPS – Back LTO Cheltenham winners cautiously in non-handicaps.

16. CNHF – ALL RACES – BREEDING, AGE and MONEY (Nothing changes!)

In the last ten years, Irish and French-bred horses have had a huge impact on the NH bloodstick market, and backing those aged 4-7, with an SP at any price up to 20/1  – where they won at Cheltenham LTO, turns the previous stat into a near-certainty. The figures are 45 Races – 45 Runners – 18 Wins – 5 Places – A/E 2.29%. Since 2020, the winners have included Stage Star, The Real Whacker, Galvin, Simply the Betts, Easysland, Dame de Compaigne, and Put the Kettle On, and at prices between 100/30 and 16/1.

BACK

17. CNHF NOVICE CHASES – RAN HERE BEFORE AND WENT LEFT LTO

In Novice Chases at The Festival, backing horses aged 6-7 yo priced at 33/1 or less, wearing no tongue-tie, who have raced at Cheltenham before and won LTO on a Left-Handed track produce the following for the last ten years: 54 races, with 81 runners, produced 25 Winners and 12 places at an A/E of 1.54%. If you’d backed anything bigger than 6/1 e/w, you would have returned 107.7 pts profit for a near 35% strike-rate.

BACK

18. CNHF HANDICAP HURDLES – TOO SOON OR TOO LATE

85 handicap hurdle races have been contested by 300 horses since 2003, who either raced less than 11 days since their last run OR more than 90 days since their last run. Those 300 runs produced just 5 winners and 38 places for an A/E of 0.32%. Four of the winners were first or second LTO and one was Pulled Up

LAY with caution for those with a top 2 finish LTO

19. CNHF HANDICAP CHASES – TOO MANY RUNS TOO BIG A PRICE

There won’t be many qualifiers, but it seems safe to ignore 5-9yo handicap chasers who are bigger than 16/1 and who have had more than five runs in the last three months. 17 races, contested by 21 runners, produced no winners and five places.

SWERVE

20. CNHF WILLIE MULLINS OTHER RUNNERS IN G1 NON-HANDICAP RACES

In G1 Festival Non-Handicap races, backing any Willie Mullins horse e/w, that had a top 3 position LTO and is priced between 10/1 and 25/1 would have produced, since 2003, 11 Winners and 14 places from 116 qualifiers running in 84 races. The A/E is 1.49%. Unsurprisingly perhaps, the stat is getting stronger – since 2017, there have been 42 races contested by 56 runners producing seven winners and seven places for an A/E of 1.92.

BACK cautiously

 

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