DAY 3: THURSDAY 14 MARCH 13:30 THE TURNERS NOV. CHASE (G1) 2m 4f Chase ZANAHIYR has had a good season so far with two decent graded runs before converting to Chasing. His debut saw him run into Fact To File, and his poor jumping didn’t aid his cause – but he did have Minella Cocooner…
Cheltenham Trends
Raceweb’s Cheltenham Festival: The Stats Pack – 20 STATS YOU NEVER KNEW
The following statistics, trends, and anomalies, call it what you will – these numbers – provide a potentially useful insight into possible Festival race outcomes. The numbers are facts, but as a dear friend once remarked after Mon Mome’s National victory, your statistic on French-bred National runners winning isn’t wrong; it’s simply that there are…
CHELTENHAM DAY 3
Truth be told, there is not much to report. A supper party of Prawns in a tomato, garlic and chilli sauce, Cottage Pie and peas, Lemon Posset with macerated strawberries, English cheeses, French clarets, a very jolly team of guests and somehow time has flown and as I suspected might happen, I find myself short…
CHELTENHAM DAY 2
We returned from the jolly lunch to find a note from an old friend to say that she had found herself at a loose end and thus watched Cheltenham on the box. She who might weep in Othello for the pitiful Desdemona or for Mimi’s consumption wrote that she had been moved to tears by…
The Last Post of Cheltenham
There was a moment on Thursday when the Kneesup world took a definitive turn for the worse. Not the excessive prices that Cheltenham has been charging for a Pint of Guinness, nor the ludicrous absence of mobile signal in the 21st century; nor the woeful and controlled wifi signal that allows you to only bet…
Feast or Famine? It’s not just at Cheltenham.
I wondered this week, at what point the Labour front-bench might overcome their oft-absent scruples and walk out of the chamber en masse in order to join the International Brigade. They might not have been alone. The demeanour of Ben Wallace, (whose preemptive “Here, Let Me Help You” strike on Priti Patel will have weakened…
Cheltenham Day 4
One of my readers, the one who doesn’t live in North Wales, sent a note to remind me that Beau Geste, who I mentioned yesterday, died at his post. He asked if I was, like Beau, considering doing the decent thing, should my Cheltenham failure continue. Trust me, Mr Scrote-Boggis of Pinworm Villas, everyone here…
The Pharaoh of Galway breaks his quarantine to give his tips
The top Irish Tipster and irregular commentator for Raceweb, Peter O’Tool, aka The Pharaoh of Galway, has managed to smuggle out his Gold Cup day tips, from his quarantined quarters in Barbados. Having never missed a Gold Cup meeting before, his frustration at a constant diet of rum and pineapple, various types of Prawn, Snapper…
Cheltenham Day 2
I have not yet had the chance to congratulate myself for tipping and Brian Harman for playing into his 3rd place in TPC. A 175/1 third, even for a shared place at a 5th odds means that to a £1 e/w LSP, we are +22 pts overall. The rest of my picks… buck up your…
Cheltenham Day 1
And they’re [almost] off…
At Last – Some Irish Craic
I am aware that many of the Trends in this section are negative, but I hope will allow the reader to avoid backing horses that probably won’t win unless The Baby Jesus gets involved. This stat however has a solid base and forms a good platform for further investigation. It has produced a profit on…
Of Course you can – but not that Course and not here
This trend continues the theme of horses that are unlikely to win, based on their last race. In this case, they have had the misfortune of being unable or unwilling to have their final Cheltenham prep race other than at these tracks. Personally I think some of these tracks are delightful, but for whatever reason,…
Stick to what you know.
As you might expect, when you’re digging in dark statistical corners, you occasionally unearth a shard of old pottery which makes you understand that the Trojans had possibly invented Toblerone. Thus it was that I uncovered this small gem, that suggests that Handicap Hurdlers do what they do best before the Festival, which is race…
Something of the Arriviste about these
It’s happened to all of us at one time or another. You turn up somewhere you’ve been invited to and you’re wearing your best Waikiki Beach Surfing Shirt and a pair of shorts and flip-flops. You’ve bought a six-pack and a smile and the door opens on a scene of sophisticated elegance, as the besuited…
You do actually get what the price suggests
Turning up at Cheltenham is no guarantee of success – and that even applies to the crowd, as I am reminded whenever I see the bookie’s children returning from another term at Harrow. I wondered about those horses who do turn up and more importantly where they came from. Supposing they weren’t fancied LTO, came…
Don’t be handicapped by inexperience
Bizarrely you would think that taking 7lbs off a decent handicap hurdler, might give one a fighting chance with Honest Bob, bookie to the gentry. I hate to disillusion you, or indeed to remove the experiential crust from the plate of young Ignatius O’Hare, claiming jockey to Mr Jumps-Ditch. But here’s something to consider about…
Give it a rest
As with so many of us, there are a finite number of miles on the clock and even the most elite of elite athletes will tell you, that they all have moments when a twinge or a creak tells them that moment has come. Is it the same with horses at the top end of…
Show some form
FACT: Since 2003, there have been 92 Grade 1 Festival Races. 76 of those races were contested by horses that had completed their races but had NOT been first or second in BOTH their last two races. Recent horses that failed, included MIGHT BITE, PRESENTING PERCY, TORNADO FLYER, MENGLI KHAN, VOIX DU REVE and POLITOLOGUE…
Older yes, Wiser perhaps, Winners hmmm
FACT: There have been 389 Class 1 races at the Festival, (Grade 1,2,3 and Listed) since 2003. 124 of those races have had 230 horses aged 11 and older compete in them and only 3 have won and 26 have been placed. The A/E is 0.29 and with a win percentage of only 1.3%, you’d…
The best need a proper break
In many cases, there is nothing strange about many Festival statistics, but for some reason this made me double-check. With further thought, however, it makes perfect sense. FACT: Since 2003 there have been 219 G1 races at the Festival. 68 of those races, almost a third, have been contested by horses who have raced in…
Flat Out – but not here
FACT: In 83 races since 2003, 103 horses have turned up, whose last prep race was on the Flat or All-weather. 7 of them were placed – but none of them won. Among those not understanding this absolute fact were WHISKEY SOUR the 2019 County Hurdle favourite at 5/1 and the 2018 favourite for the…
Huntingdon Hackers
We know we have had 437 NH Festival races since 2003. FACT: Almost 25% of those contained a runner who had raced at Huntingdon LTO. In fact, there were 132 such horses in 103 races, who had been to the charming Cambridgeshire track and for an A/E of 0.15, they produced one winner and 16…
Ignore Weak Ratings.
For the Lord sayeth that many are called, but few are chosen and at Cheltenham, the meek and those rated 112 or below will not inherit the earth. FACT: Since 2003, there have been a total of 438 races. In that time 59 races have had 139 runners in them, rated 112 or less. None…
The German Hurdlers Trend
Fact: Since 2003, there have been 206 Festival Hurdle races of which 88 were contested by 122 German-bred horses, of which only 2 have won. (Gordon Elliott’s ARAMAX 11th March 2020 in the Fred Winter and Willie Mullins ARCTIC FIRE on 17th March 2017 in the County Hurdle). There were 16 places. With a win…
Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
RACE TRENDS: The following profile would have found the last 10 winners and 14 of the possible 23 winners since 1998. Since that date, there have been 67 horses meeting the profile competing in 22 races and producing 14 winners and 17 places for a winning profit of £58.50 and e/w profit of £69.75. The…
Ballymore Hurdle
8th February 2021 GAILLARD DU MESNIL got things underway at Leopardstown’s Dublin Racing Festival, with a brilliant performance in the opener. The five-year-old was cut into favourite with most bookmakers for the race. 8/1 before the race, he’s now a best price of 7/2 and 3/1 with a number of firms. Sent off 13/8 favourite…