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21st April 2024 9:37 pm

“A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries."

York Ebor Meeting Day 2 & THE TOUR Championship Tips

These Donors Are AMAZING Thank You

William S – MEJi – Peter N – Nigel B – Ken C – Mark S – James D – William M – Fiona M – Julian A – Jonathan H – Mrs V.M – Pete BN – Gavin C – Thom S – Sarah C – Mark S – Sam H – James R

So farewell then Yevgeny Prigozhin

However hard we practised,

no one could say your name

but Putin could, and put it

on the passenger list.

Surprise!

EJ Thribb Aged 17½

Talking of possibly too many air miles, Paddington was thought to have simply done too much this calendar year with eight increasingly tough races since September 2022. Add to that, the change of tactics wielded by Frankie, whose skill was just mesmerising. At the other end of the achievement scale, a million congrats to Heather Main whose Zoulou Chief won the unlucky last at 15/2. This followed on from a 28/1 Windsor victory and a 150/1 Newbury win, when connections might have been wondering what the future held.

Earlier in the day Jonny Bairstow’s horse Indian Fire didn’t walk too early and kept an eye out for events behind him, (!) and timed his arrival at the winning post perfectly to take the Acomb Stakes. He was part of The Bronte Collection, a syndicate formed by Clipper Logistic’s Steve Parkin for his mates, which has had some considerable success. Last night, Bairstow received the Freedom of Bradford… no… stop it. I said nowt.

Below the line, I give my tips for the Tour Championship, but Rory McIlroy highlighted a very real issue for pro-golfers, with the rise in sports betting in the USA. This is crowd interference in play, designed to impact players or the outcome of a game at crucial moments. Jon Rahm had earlier referred to an incident at the BMW Championship on Saturday when two individuals were ejected after shouting at Max Homa as he putted out on the 17th hole. The shouts apparently related to a bet between friends.

People spend a similar amount of time I imagine, shouting to their friends about me – but I’m made of sterner stuff! Here are the tips for Day 2, following a harrowing smash-up on Day 1 with a 33pt loss

YORK EBOR MEETING DAY 2

1:50 Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (G2) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 6f 9 run (3p gen)

The trends shortlist leaves me with three, including the market leader, RELIEF RALLY, who won the Weatherbys Super Sprint. Her only defeat in four starts to date has been in the Queen Mary, where she found herself following the wrong one (the fifth horse) into the closing stages. She then had to be switched to the left of the winner to challenge. She wasn’t stopped in her run, but in a race of the finest margins, it meant she just had that bit too much to do. If she handles this extra furlong, she will take some beating. FLORA OF BERMUDA makes the trends but probably needs cut, judging by her Goodwood run LTO, and STAR OF MYSTERY who was 2nd in the G2 Duchess of Cambridge at Newmarket might cause some problems. I sort of fancy Queen Mary third BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND who was probably at Ascot shy a race and if she has kicked on at home then her price is too big.

STAR OF MYSTERY 3 pts e/w – 1pt RFC RELIEF RALLY

2:25 Goffs UK Harry Beeby Premier Yearling Stakes Cl2 (2yo) 6f 22 run (6p Sky, 5p several, 4p gen)

Richard Hannon farms this race and has won it five times in the last seven years. He has again turned up mob-handed, and two of his runners make the trends list PERSICA and DAPPERLING. The latter also provides Jamie Spencer with his only ride today. It’s a wide-open race and I’m going to go for DAPPERLING and The Biscuit Barrel’s MASTER FRANCA who gets first time blinkers.

DAPPERLING 2 pts e/w – MASTER FRANCA 1½ pts e/w

3:00 Clipper Hcap Cl2 (3yo+) 1m 20 run (6p and 5p mixed – care)

I was surprised at some of the markets today and had some small personal success with the Tote prices. You can bet on the Tote with the organisation itself and with bookies like Bet365.

BLUE FOR YOU – ORBAAN Back these two on the Tote 2 pts Win 4 pts Place  – Back DARKNESS 1 pt Win 2 pts Place.

3:35 Pertemps Network Yorkshire Oaks (G1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m4f 10 run (4p Skybet 3p gen)

Don’t mess around,  it’s the Irish Oaks winner.

SAVETHELASTDANCE 4 pts Win

4:10 British EBF & Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m4f 13 run (5p Skybet 4p gen)

SEA THEME 3 pts Win

4:45 Or8Wellness EBF Stallions Nursery Hcap Cl2 (2yo) 7f 20 run (6p Skybet 5p gen)

BLUE COLLAR 3 pts win – GUSHING GOLD 2 pts e/w – BIGBERTIEBASSETT 1 pt e/w

5:20 British EBF 40th Anniversary Fillies’ Hcap Cl2 (3yo+) 7f 19 run (6p Skybet 5p gen)

SOPHIAS STARLIGHT 4 pts e/w

PGA TOUR Championship

Firstly a reminder. FedExCup points are converted to starting strokes for the Tour Championship. This all started in 2019, when The PGA Tour adopted the stroke-based bonus system, giving golfers different scores to start their opening round. The players with the most FedExCup points on the season get a greater advantage to begin the Tour Championship. The starting strokes range from 10-under, given to the FedExCup points leader, to even, given to the last five golfers to qualify for the event. Here is how the starting strokes have been assigned for 2023:

  • 10-under: Scottie Scheffler
  • 8-under: Viktor Hovland
  • 7-under: Rory McIlroy
  • 6-under: Jon Rahm
  • 5-under: Lucas Glover
  • 4-under: Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Brian Harman, Wyndham Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick
  • 3-under: Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Keegan Bradley, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele
  • 2-under: Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Tony Finau, Corey Conners, Si Woo Kim
  • 1-under: Taylor Moore, Nick Taylor, Adam Schenk, Collin Morikawa, Jason Day
  • Even: Sam Burns, Emiliano Grillo, Tyrrell Hatton, Jordan Spieth, Sepp Straka

That of course means that in real terms only a few players have a true chance of winning the TOUR Championship – probably the top 4 and take your pick from Patrick Cantlay or Lucas Glover. So firstly let’s deal with Scottie. He was by far the best player in the BMW when measured by SG: Tee to Green, gaining 14.35 compared to the field average. Rory McIlroy was in second, nearly six shots back. Unfortunately, yet again, Scheffler’s putter held him back, as he lost 1.89 strokes to the field on the greens. It was the fourth straight tournament of negative strokes gained putting for Scheffler, who has now gone backwards in six of his last eight tournaments. Most concerning for Scheffler backers is that he lost more than three strokes putting last year at this event and in three previous TOUR Championship appearances, he’s down nearly 12 shots against the field on the greens. So where to look for the winner?

Obviously, my first thought is with the Norwegian Viktor Hovland who totally screwed me over last weekend. Just two shots behind Scheffler, but his mind will still be filled with how he was 3 strokes down last weekend and passed Scheffler without seeming to draw breath and break decades-old records. His ball-striking and short game are both strong, and I see no reason to think it’s all going to be on the back burner starting Thursday.

But don’t forget there is also the 72-ball market, where just the card score counts and for that I’m tempted to revisit  Tommy Fleetwood, who has had a string of dreadful fading Sundays, I’m just wondering whether he might loosen up if he doesn’t have the added pressure of winning the Tour Championship, closing on Sunday with the best four-round score – but still three or four penalty strokes behind the actual winner. 28/1 seems a decent price for that possibility.

VICTOR HOVLAND 6 pts Win @ 6/1 with Betfair P2P – 11/2 with Paddy Power or Betfair Odds – TOMMY FLEETWOOD 3 pts e/w @ 28/1 4 places ¼ odds Bet365 or 888

SANDY LANE WRITES:

After last week’s frustrating BMW Championship and with a lop-sided Fedex Cp handicap market, let’s play only in the lowest 72-hole total market at The Tour Championship:

M. HOMA: Max landed our each-way first 8 bet in Chicago and looks sure to go well again in Atlanta.
2 pts e/w (6 places) Boylesports 14-1
T. KIM: Tom’s tenth placing last week was a testament to his ever-growing confidence. That sublime 29 on the back 9 on Sunday was bettered only by Victor Hovland’s astonishing 28.
2 pts e/w (6 places) Boylesports 22-1
SL

 

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