I am in a dark mood today – not by way of any change, I hear the cheap seats mutter – but I have had a dozen stabs at this preamble. One piece of a now-lost 45 minutes was so full of end-of-days predictions, that Apocalypse didn’t really do it justice.
Decisions made in a black mood are never necessarily good. I once started a company, for some reason or other, called Armageddon Management. I think we planned to supply advisors to do useful management things in Armageddon-type situations, but we might have oversold the concept because no one contracted us, on the grounds that people assumed that by the time they got to use us, it was already too late.
There was some thought about telling you how well the betting bank was going – but we have had some slight regression this past few days. But hang on – I hear the white crow that sits on my left shoulder say – we’re almost in May and we’ve only lost 23 points since January 1st. Yeah but a loss is a loss and so on, goes the black crow.
Instead, let’s cheer ourselves up by looking at the spartan number of runners today – and I might make a point of doing this in future. Besides each race with too few runners, I shall put the Median number of runners for the last 20 years or so (allow for abandons and cancellations). Thus the Celebration chase has been run 20 times since its creation in 2001 and has a Median entry of 6.5.
Talking of OCD – here are today’s tips
1:50 SANDOWN bet365 Novices’ Championship Final Hcap Hdl Cl2 (4yo+) 2m ITV 12 run
WHIZZ KID 3 pts Win – BOOMBAWN 1½ pts e/w
2:05 HAYDOCK Great Shevington Hcap Cl2 (4yo+) 7f ITV 11 run
GIOIA CIECA 2 pts e/w
2:25 SANDOWN bet365 Oaksey Chs (G2) (For The Menorah Challenge Trophy) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m6½f ITV 4 run (Last 7 years Median 7 run Only one year with 4 run)
MISTER FISHER 3 pts win
2:45 LEICESTER EBF Stallions King Richard III Stakes Cl1 (4yo+) 7f ITV 3 run (Last 22 years Median 7. Last year 4)
No Bet
3:00 SANDOWN bet365 Celebration Chs (G1) Cl1 (5yo+) 1m7½f ITV 5 run [Median 6.5 over 20 years)
NUBE NEGRA 2 pts Win
3:32 SANDOWN bet365 Gold Cup Hcap Chs (G3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m5f ITV 15 run (Last 24 runnings Median 19 run. 5 years with 15 or less runners)
Look to get 5 places from bookmakers. I have been saying for some time that I really fancy DOMAINE DE LISLE for this at a healthy e/w price. I am even more confident now that he has Brian Hughes on board. 4th in The Becher and unseating in the GN, the only question is whether he gets the trip at this end of the season.
I am of course terrified of the Crazy Williams Saturday Rule – a system I am thinking of patenting, where you back any horse trained by someone called Williams on a Saturday, running in a handicap that pays between £14k and £25k to the winner. So far we have had 119 bets in 67 races with 16 wins and 17 places. Our win bets are showing a 59pt profit. If we had only backed Williams horses better than 6/1 in 8 runner races, we would have been +72pts for a strike rate of almost 26%. Just saying…
(There are four today including the favourite KITTYS LIGHT – CAP DU NORD – PRIME VENTURE – WIN MY WINGS)
DOMAINE DE LISLE 2 pts e/w