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“A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries."

I bet I’m a better person by the end of the year!

Capt. Kneesup

Capt. Kneesup

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Despite calling in sick for exactly 26 days, it turns out that the Lateral Flow Tests I used every seven days were all flawed, and that I didn’t have to take a long paid holiday at my company’s expense to self-isolate after all, so I am now reporting for duty and will obviously be seeking holidays in lieu, for the time I might have been working over Christmas possibly replacing other staff who were in fact suffering from the terrible effects of Omycrikeyitsacon, which can include sneezing.

Meanwhile, and in line with the rest of the damned, I have decided to make a New Year’s Resolution. This one will/might/could benefit us all, as it might iron out some of the anomalies caused by an LSP system, for marking our financial progress. In brief, I have decided to change the way we punt.

To remind you, we always called the currency in which we place our bets a point. My point might be worth £1 and yours might be $12. Mine isn’t and yours is none of my business. The point is simply a measurement of success or failure. We have also, for over two years now, placed either 2pts win or 1pt e/w and we have only used the SP to chart our progress. Please note, Not the price we advised – not the Betfair SP – Not the Tote’s Returns but the SP, to produce the result. Thus each bet was always +x or -2 pts. In real life, of course, we might have had 5 pts on the 2/1 shot and 1pt e/w on the 12/1 nag. We also had some fun with Forecasts and Tricasts and over the years we had some spectacular results – but overall the “exotics” as they are known, are a bit of fun that provides a rare and often big return for not much outlay – providing you don’t try and guess the first three in every race, every time.

So starting today we are introducing a new set of Raceweb Betting Rules to mark our progress.

  1. We will start on January 1st with a Betting Bank of 1000 pts
  2. Raceweb will recommend a Win Bet for between 2 and 10 pts and Each-Way Bets for between 1 and 5 pts
  3. We will only play forecasts and Trifectas in races with 16 runners or more and to a maximum stake of 5 pts
  4. All returns will continue to be calculated at SP
  5. Not every race shown on TV will be bet upon – although we might well offer an opinion
  6. The total stakes of the day must not exceed 2% of the bank.

Obviously, it would be unfair and a bit silly to introduce this new regime starting on January 1st – as our first weekend was a real corker with a 28/1 winner for one of the real Corinthians of our sport, David Maxwell, riding Dolphine Square to a 28/1 victory. Huzzah! We had all three of the Musselburgh winners and were otherwise a bit unlucky in a couple of others.  So we used the old system to chart our progress and this is how we did, with the P&L for each race shown in Green:

  • 1:25 CHELTENHAM THE GLANCING QUEEN Win 2nd 3/1 -2 pts
  • 1:40 MUSSELBURGH AURORA THUNDER e/w Won 17/2 = +10.20 pts
  • 2:00 CHELTENHAM COOLE CODY Win 8th 5/1 – KAUTO RICKO e/w pu 20/1 – GALAHAD QUEST 6th 9/1 for forecasts (-2 + -2 + -3) = -7 pts
  • 2:10 MUSSELBURGH TOMMY’S OSCAR Win Won 2/1 = +4 pts
  • 2:20 TRAMORE AL BOUM PHOTO Win Won 1/6 = +0.33 pts
  • 2:35 CHELTENHAM DOLPHIN SQUARE e/w Won 28/1 – THE MIGHTY DON e/w pu 33/1  – ASK DILLON e/w pu 12/1 (+33.60 + -2 + -2) = +29.60 pts
  • 2:50 MUSSELBURGH ARMOUR DE NUIT Win Won 6/4 = +3 pts
  • 3:10 CHELTENHAM BREWINUPASTORM Win F 9/4 = -2 pts

TOTAL: +36.13

So our bank stands at 1036.13 pts which gives us approx 20pts max (2% of the bank) for today. I hope you enjoy the new pursuit.

1:30 WINCANTON Leonna Mayor New House Celebration Hcap Hdl Cl5 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m7f 14 run

NOBLE SAVAGE 1 pt e/w

1:50 SANDOWN Unibet Horserace Betting Operator Of The Year Hcap Chs Cl2 (5yo+ 0-145) 1m7½f insight ridge7 run

GUNSIGHT RIDGE was unlucky to meet L’Homme Presse at Exeter and while he has developed (resulting in GR’s 3lb hike), I am concerned it might be too soft for him and Olly is going through a dull patch at the moment. With that caveat I’d be wanting 4s for him to be a betting proposition. MOONLIGHTER was 1lb lower when losing The Haldon Cup by a neck last year, to Greaneteen, who is now over a stone better now. He looked to be racing with purpose at Chelty LTO and 7s seems a fair price. I’m not sure there is much value with only 7 runners so while I think he’ll be placed and might even win, this is the first No Bet for 2022.

NO BET

2:05 WINCANTON advancedbiotech.com UK Award Winning CBD Hcap Chs Cl3 (5yo+ 0-130) 1m7½f 10 run

GREY DIAMOND 2pts win

2:25 SANDOWN Unibet Tolworth Novices’ Hdl (G1) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m 6 run

SHALLWEHAVEONEMORE is being tested  by Gary Moore to see where he sits in the grand scheme of things. Thus he is no value. Both JETOILE and MR GLASS are coming back in trip, and will try to win this from the front. However, the one they all have to beat is the Supreme Novice second-favourite CONSTITUTION HILL, who is decent. If there is a WO Favourite market, I think I’d be backing Gary’s charge, but I think MR GLASS offers some value, in the bigger market. He didn’t have to improve too much under his LTO penalty and he showed a good attitude without doing too much in front. In fact I thought there was more to come, providing this isn’t simply an exercise in weight management.

MR GLASS 1pt e/w

2:40 WINCANTON rapidcharge.com Leading EV Charging Solution Hcap Hdl Cl3 (4yo+ 0-125) 2m5½f 13 run

MANVER’S HOUSE 1pt e/w

3:00 SANDOWN Unibet Veterans’ Hcap Chs (The Final Of The 2021 Series) Cl2 (10yo+) 3m 13 run

THE KING’S WRIT 2 pts e/w

3:15 WINCANTON Art Of Outdoor With Ocean Hcap Chs Cl2 (5yo+ 0-150) 2m4f 6 run

This is not an inspiring collection of animals – so much so that I am almost more interested in the race sponsor than the possible winner.

Ocean fills a unique position in the Out of Home (OOH) advertising landscape, specialising only in digital, super-premium and globally iconic screen locations… Ocean is the pioneer in DOOH advertising technology, leading a new wave of creative solutions through its Ocean Labs division including proprietary solutions…

Who knew?

Actually, I’m trying to add Wincanton to the mix. Does the Ocean Chair breed, race, own horses and live next to the track? Why here? Why racing? Wide open, but for a variety of reasons, the Paul Nicholls entry looks significant… but not enough to interest me.

No Bet

3:35 SANDOWN Unibet Casino Deposit £10 Get £40 Hcap Hdl Cl2 (4yo+ 0-145) 2m 8 run

This race looks to lack a bit of depth, given it’s a C2. The only improver I can see towards the head of the market is VOLKOVA who simply bumped into a stronger stayer LTO. That said it was a decent effort off a 9lb higher mark than her Carlisle success and two have gone on to win since, including Empressive Lady at Kempton’s King George meet who caught the eye with a neat little 5½l win which hinted at better to come.

VOLKOVA 2pt e/w

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