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“A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries."

Lumme – What went right there?

Capt. Kneesup

Capt. Kneesup

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By crikey – even I startled myself. It’s been a while since I did a bit of banking, but e/w doubles and trebles, the favoured drinking method in the Hillside Clubs and my preferred betting poison, delivered what I believe is called A Result. A total investment of 30 pts delivered three winners, a 25/1 4th place and later its much more amusing big-sister, the 150/1 shot (went off 125/1), all of which were advised on these very pages. Overall we were 74pts+ up on the day and the bank regains some of its youthful looks at 934.32 pts. That is a recoverable loss of around 6% since Jan 1st.

The trip to Swindon’s cultural epicentre, The Great Western Hospital probably added the required spring to the confident step, as the scans confirmed what I had been saying all along. Namely, I was not suffering from Turn-Right Syndrome, the pernicious DVT often caught from turning right at the top of the flight stairs and sitting in a chair made by Meccano for extremely small people for 16 hours. The staff said other stuff, along the lines of limiting the number of my guest appearances in Riverdance, and given my figure, I might want to hand in my membership of The Escapologists Society (Small Sack branch), but otherwise, it was all very positive… as were our tipping results.

Even the Masters looks to be going along sensible lines, with three of our selections, in top ten positions.

Today’s recommendations are below.

1:45 20 Years Together, Alder Hey & Aintree Hcap Hdl (G3) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f 22 run

There are a few trends we can use to guide us and they are

  • 17/19 Minimum 2 seasonal runs
  • 14/14 19+ DSLR
  • 14/14 Had an OR between 128-144
    • 8/14 were in the 130s range
  • 13/14 aged 6yo – 9yo
  • 13/14 10st 1lb – 11st 4lbs (after jockey claims)
  • 13/14 last ran in a Hurdle race
  • 33% had their last run at The Festival
  • Nicky Henderson trained novices have won 3 of the last 8

On the strength of that, I am blindly backing FILS D’OUDAIRIES and BALCO COAST. The latter has won twice this season but was pulled up in the Imperial Cup at Sandown. You might remember the ground that day made a fish tank look like a sandbox, and Nicky said afterwards he couldn’t wait for a dryer Aintree. There is some clucking going on for BROOMFIELD BURG, but I think this will be too quick for him after Chelty exterions.

FILS D’OUDAIRIES 1 pt e/w – BALCO COAST 2 pts e/w

2:20 Betway Top Novices’ Hdl (G1) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m½f 9 ru

On paper and on trends, this is another Nicky Henderson Benefit with 4W – 2P – 12R over the past 10 years. He’s actually 6 from the last – but who’s counting?

  • 14/14 were OR 128+
  • 12/14 had run 2-5 career hurdle races
  • 11/14 aged 5 or 6 yo
    • 2007 and 2017 winners were 7 yo
  • 11/14 Top 5 finish LTO
  • Of the six occasions the runner-up of the Supreme Novice has run – five won

Quite simply, JONBON, runs, JONBON Wins.  If there are still nine runners tomorrow morning, I might have a little tickle at AUCUNRISQUE who I  liked when he won the Dovecote and think about how to play VINA ARDANZA. The latter might be a Tote Place Bet. I might just do a brace of SFC.

JONBON 4pts Win

2:55 Betway Mildmay Novices’ Chs (G1) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m1f 4 run

What a great race. If I had to own two it would be AHOY SENOR and L’HOMME PRESSE. If I had to cheer one home it would be The Man

Too much fun. NO BET…. WAIT he’s better than evens…

L’HOMME PRESSE 5 pts win

3:30 Marsh Chs (Registered As The Melling Chs) (G1) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m4f 10 run

This race has got me bothered. Everywhere I look I keep seeing prices I think are simply wrong – but then I dig deeper and I can see the fly in the ointment. One piece of ointment which is driving some money is the fact that of the last 30 winners – only 2 hadn’t run at Cheltenham LTO. 20 of them contested the QMCC… which would suggest this year’s runner-up FUNAMBULE SIVOLA is a sexy price at 9/1. But then you realise his figures for G1 races are 22 and his figures over the distance are 052. The only other horse to come from Cheltenham is EDITEUR DU GITE from Moores and Co, who was 4th in The Grand Annual and you could argue there is an improvement to come. I was also fascinated to hear that Alan King has been desperate to try SCEAU ROYALE over further and has the chance. None of this inspires me. I think the favourite wins again and I shall have a small tickle on the Cheltenham trend coming almost good

EDITEUR DU GITE 1 pt e/w

4:05 Randox Topham Hcap Chs (G3) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m5f 30 run

A really poor race for trends, so on this occasion, I have set the HAL2000 number cruncher to give me horses that have been placed at Aintree on drying G/S ground. It suggested my selections, which happily, if not surprisingly were reconfirmed as decent nags for a punt by Timeform.

SENIOR CITIZEN  – PINK EYED PEDRO – MR COFFEY All 1pt e/w

4:40 Cavani Menswear Sefton Novices’ Hdl (G1) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m½f 14 run

There is only one I’m interested in here and that is STAG HORN e/w. Click the Search button on this site to see my comments and admiration. We had a very large NRNB at Cheltenham on him, and on drying ground I’m expecting a good performance.

STAG HORN 3pts e/w

5:15 Park Palace Ponies Hcap Hdl (Conditional Jockeys’ And Amateur Riders’ Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m½f RTV 17 run

FAVOIR 1½ pts e/w

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