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21st April 2024 10:03 pm

“A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries."

Saturday 17th August TV Racing Tips

These Donors Are AMAZING Thank You

William S – MEJi – Peter N – Nigel B – Ken C – Mark S – James D – William M – Fiona M – Julian A – Jonathan H – Mrs V.M – Pete BN – Gavin C – Thom S – Sarah C – Mark S – Sam H – James R

What Ho

A generally quiet week behind me, but with many flurries on the political front. I have launched a petition, which might, inshallah, gain some traction. It simply asks that MPs who cross the floor or who lose their party’s whip because they have been bounders, rotters, cads, crooks, scoundrels or charlatans, face an immediate by-election so that their constituents can decide whether they like the new progressive and in many cases Liberal look. If you agree with that premise, then do, please sign HERE.

On the subject of Liberals and liberalism, I was offered a wise definition taken from Patrick Deenan’s Why Liberalism Failed (2018). A political philosophy that was launched to foster greater equity, defend a pluralist tapestry of different cultures and beliefs, protect human dignity, and, of course, expand liberty. In practice, it generates titanic inequality, enforces uniformity and homogeneity, fosters material and spiritual degradation and undermines freedom.”

Were you a recent floor-crossing nuMPty, wouldn’t that embarrass you slightly?

Enough of that.. the Racing Tips have arrived.

1:50 NEWBURY Denford Stakes (Listed Race) (formerly The Washington Singer Stakes) Cl1 (2yo) 7f

JUAN ELCANO is a non-runner, and I’m torn between the progressive SUN POWER, who has improved in each of his four runs, and FRANKEL’S STORM who will not mind this ground which I’m guessing will be quite holding in four hours. She was given a confident, front-running ride at Carlisle over 7f+ on heavy ground, and although she drifted slightly left under pressure, she came clear readily winning by a wide margin. My major concern is whether SUN POWER will handle the ground. My gut feeling is that he will, but I just have a niggling question mark.

2:05 RIPON  William Hill Silver Trophy Handicap (Consolation Race For The William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes) Cl2 (3yo+) 6f

Only seven runnings so far, but there are a decent set of trends emerging which, if maintained, reduce the field down to manageable eight runners. Two of them are Julie Camacho’s, DALTON and ROYAL PROSPECT. Both will handle the ground. Three of the remaining eight are from Tim Easterby’s yard FLYING PURSUIT, HYPERFOCUS and BOSSIPOP. The first two wouldn’t need to do much to take a hand. FLYING PURSUIT has CD form and benefits from being 5lb lower than when winning at York last year and could well come good back over his optimum distance. BRIAN’S SNAIL is also on the list representing Richard Fahey, and he is second-best on my ratings.  TAWNY PORT also caught the eye when being hampered LTO and also meets the main trends.

2:25 NEWBURY Unibet Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m5½f

Just five run in this G3 and I could make a case for all of them MORANDO is the form horse, having been racing in G1 and G2 all season. The4 last time he was in a G3 at Chester he popped in  – but on the trends, he is too old. The ratings suggest DURSTON and SAMEEN have a bit to find, but recent runs certainly suggest they are worth a crack at this level and both have won on Soft. The Queen has SEXTANT in the race and 4yo is 3/4 and has won at Newbury. Ryan Moore will have to work hard because SEXTANT might not get the distance, nor the ground. He’s also rated 10lbs inferior to MORANDO. Worth a mention is TECHNICIAN who carries 12lb less on a rating 10lb less – which should see him get close. He’s been beaten three times at this level. My advice is to watch and learn, but if you’re determined, then enough to win an indecently large Armagnac on SAMEEM.

2:45 NEWMARKET (JULY) Unibet Grey Horse Handicap Cl4 (3yo+ 0-85) 6f

Lady Kneesup will be confused in this race, as she tends to back every grey in a race. Plus every Lady Jockey and often a Lady Trainer. Her default position, when all else fails is to back Andrea Atzeni – because it’s a girl’s name. Some three years ago she deposited £30 with bet365, and the account has never needed topping up and remains at around a 250% profit. She is going to be all over MY STYLE, which I won’t be backing because it is a 3yo and 13 of the last 16 winners were aged five and over. Various other trends guide me to CASE KEY (e/w), who won the race in 2017. Rated 7lbs lower this time, he gets in with just 8-5, and he is 3lb better off than his last winning mark. The other trend hopefuls all come from the bottom weights, but LE MANEGE ENCHANTE is so far out of the handicap, one hopes the jockey can carry the horse. Possibly best of the rest – again e/w – is BUCCANEERS VAULT who has soft form and is 7lb better than the last winning mark.

3:00 NEWBURY Unibet Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-95) 7f

A disappointing turnout for this race, and with two non-runners and trendlines ruling out another brace, I’m left with a disappointing five. Back to her last winning mark, LOVE DREAMS has become very “in and out.” First time Cheek pieces LTO didn’t galvanise and it may be that she has just had enough. She makes all my trends and is high in my ratings, but she’s not for me. PIECE OF HISTORY should come on after the pipe opener last month for Saeed, but the tentative selection is GRAPHITE STORM, who is only 3lbs up for the Newmarket win and he was third in this race last year off a 3lb higher mark. He has been placed on soft ground, so there is some small hope.

3:15 RIPON William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 6f

Last year’s winner GUNMETAL hasn’t got the best of draws and is 4lb higher this time. There is a lot of chat focused on DAKOTA GOLD, who was runner up in the race last year and is 8lbs higher this year. However, Michael Dods’s charge arrives here in decent fettle winning well at York LTO and is only penalised 2lbs for that success. He’ll handle the ground – but he doesn’t do well on the trends. David O’Meara has won this race three times since 2011, and of his runners – MUSICIKA, INTISAAB, GULLIVER and SUMMERGHAND. The best match for me on ratings and trends is SUMMERGHAND. I also fancy Hughie Morrison’s BELATED BREATH, whose nine races over 6f and after a break of 45 days or less have produced all his five wins and three places.

3:35 NEWBURY Unibet Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo+) 7f

This is going to be an interesting race, and many will be attracted to last year’s winner, SIR DANCEALOT, who arrives here via the same Goodwood race he has won two years running. He beat HEY GAMAN by a length at Goodwood who is now 3lbs to the good. The Jersey Stakes winner SPACE TRAVELLER has a theoretical chance with an 8lb benefit for a 4l beating LTO but fails on my trends. SAFE VOYAGE however does not and his third in the Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh LTO caught the eye. The ground won’t bother him, and his Haydock win two runs back was a decent performance.

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