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21st April 2024 8:01 pm

“A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries."

York Ebor meeting Day 1

These Donors Are AMAZING Thank You

William S – MEJi – Peter N – Nigel B – Ken C – Mark S – James D – William M – Fiona M – Julian A – Jonathan H – Mrs V.M – Pete BN – Gavin C – Thom S – Sarah C – Mark S – Sam H – James R

One of our brethren contacted me to say he was struggling to [a] send me an email and [b] understand my apparent support for Patrick Deenan’s definition of modern liberalism. I think I have repaired one of them, but I am also aware that I might have strayed from the path of simplicity, (aka tipping, eating and drinking), and onto the rocky road of dialectic materialism, I have therefore embraced the concept of reflective equilibrium and will never mention bloody Liberals again.

Meanwhile, at York, a racecourse I wish I could learn to love, they are holding the Ebor meeting. My fingers are crossed, and I hope the trends prove useful



  • 10/10 OR 92 – 104
  • 10/10 carried 9st 7lbs to 8st 13lbs (0/79 were out of that range)
  • 10/10 between 4-9 season races
  • 10/10 DSLR 25 or less
  • 9/10 Won at C2 level+
  • 9/10 Run at Listed level+
  • 9/10 Ran at C1 or C2 level LTO
  • 9/10 4-6 starts last 90 days

On those trends there are only two that make the cut and they are STONE OF DESTINY and WATCHABLE. A couple come close in MOMENT OF MADNESS and FOOLAAD.

STONE OF DESTINY had not been favouring the winners’ enclosure for quite a while, until landing the Shergar Cup Dash ten days or so back. Final Venture was a nose behind, and the extra ½ furlong will benefit. The 2lb rise is manageable, and De Sousa will help. WATCHABLE made all to land three six-furlong handicaps in the space of three months earlier this year. He wasn’t disgraced at Chelmsford LTO having lost a cheekpiece in the stalls. It will be a tough ask, and his Turf mark looks high enough, but fingers are crossed with the Great One on board. I am by no means dismissing the other two and will keep an eye on the market to see if they’re getting support.


  • 12/12 Top 2 LTO
    • 11/12 Won
    • 10 /12 Top 4 on debut
  • 11/12 Ran over 7f+ LTO
  • 12/12 Ran over 6f minimum incl debut
  • 11/12 Max 3 career runs
  • 12/12 42 DSLR
  • 12/12 Made their debut after the Derby

With eight last-time-out winners, it all boils down to who has improved the most since. The trends lead me to a choice of three, KINGBROOK, PERSUASION and VALDERMORO. Persuasion had speed and won in a nice time at Goodwood, and there is plenty to like about Valdermoro who looked very decent at Doncaster last month putting in the best 7f performance that night. Kingbrook is considered G1 in the yard and showed real promise when third of five over 7f at Haydock followed by a tough Ascot race, where he was headed in the final furlong – but dug deep to get on top by a neck on the line. I’m going for PERSUASION to win this and if I was going to be surprised it will probably be by ETHIC who also looked to have progress in him.


  • 15/15 Max 5 runs aged 2yo
  • 15/15 had a seasonal top 2 finish
  • 15/15 Top 6 finish LTO
    • 12/15 Top 4 LTO
  • 15/15 Minimum 10f LTO
  • 15/15 DSLR 75 or less
    • 14/15 DSLR 21+
  • 15/15 Max 9 career races
  • 14/15 ran as a 2yo
  • 80% Top 4 in betting
  • 80% 9/1 or shorter
  • 14/15 OR 103+
  • 13/15 Ran in C1 LTO
  • 13/15 had 4-9 career runs
  • 12/14 Won that season
  • 1/20 Ran in a Maiden LTO
  • 40% of the last 15 ran at the Curragh LTO

CONSTANTINOPLE is the trends winner but O’Brien is 2/53 G1 Ebor meeting runners. He is 0/44 if they don’t start fav. In a five runner race there is no room to manoeuvre. Watch and learn, but no bet.


  • 15/15 Had won a Group race
    • 15/15 Placed G1
    • 13/15 Won G1
  • 24/25 Top 4 in the betting
  • 15/15 77 or less DSLR
  • 15/15 Top 4 LTO
    • 14/15 Top 3 LTO
  • 15/15 Ran at a G1 track LTO
  • 15/15 Top 3 finish in either or both last 2 starts
    • 14/15 Top 2 finish on one of their last 3 starts
  • 14/15 SP of 8/1 or less
  • 14/15 ran in G1 LTO
  • 14/15 had Top 3 finish in a G1 race
  • 14/15 (of those with a rating) OR 118+
  • 17/21 had won over 10f
  • 14/15 had 13 or fewer career runs
  • 13/14 had won a race that season
  • 12/14 Aged 3 or 4

CRYSTAL OCEAN should hose this because he has a very decent weight advantage on ratings. However the price is far too tight and the scrap could involve him, CIRCUS MAXIMUS and KING OF COMEDY. I just wonder whether Circus might not find this one race too many, as that was a tough old Sussex Stakes against Too Darn Hot. For me KING OF COMEDY is the selection, because a combination of having Kingman as his sire; (previous wins in one of their last 3 starts plus 2-8 career starts over 10f-10½f gives a 60% SR on win/place); plus Gosden at the Ebor meeting under various conditions met in this race, makes him look comparative value. I’d be happy with 7/2.

16:15 Sky Bet Handicap (4yo+, Class 2, 2m 56y)


16:50 Sky Bet Nursery (2yo, Class 2, 6f, 22 runners)

My principal concern with VENTURA FLAME is whether this ground may turn out to be too fast, and any rain will help her cause. At Carlisle LTO she showed a very determined attitude, and if it’s not here, then it will be very soon that she appears in the winner’s enclosure. TROUBADOR won at Thirsk in characterful fashion. Dods fancies him, but his entry in Redcar’s Two-Year-Old Trophy looks a little optimistic tonight – unless he shines here, in which case the world is his mollusc.

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