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19th June 2024 2:53 pm

“A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries."

Thank you Brian for my good dinner, Amen

These Donors Are AMAZING Thank You

Just in: CJM… Bunter… Ken… Thank you. They join: William S – MEJi – Peter N – Nigel B – Ken C – Mark S – James D – William M – Fiona M – Julian A – Jonathan H – Mrs V.M – Pete BN – Gavin C – Thom S – Sarah C – Mark S – Sam H – James R

A very happy day at Newbury yesterday, hidden away from The Hon and the Nephew in a box with Nicky Henderson, the Lambourn Jet Set, some City High Flyers and assorted other good eggs. The event was a charity lunch Nicky has chaired for almost a decade in aid of Starlight, a children’s charity that is well worth supporting. I have no idea how much it raised, but by the penultimate race, the great man was still urging us to buy the flowers from the table at £20 a pop. A stab in the dark would suggest they raised £150k, and well done to him and them.

In the meantime, The Hon. and The Nephew were attending the official launch of Pete Burrell’s new racing syndicate SPIRITED RACING, a fun side to Pete’s personal management company, Spirited Management. Lots of old chums and supporters, a few sips of something cold and some stylish canapes, then it was off to support one of Heather Main’s owners in the first. A not-especially-brilliant run, then drinks in the sunshine with a half-dozen more Plantagenet cousins until Nephew and Hon came up to the box for a cup of tea and a sticky doo-dah.

I have taken to giving a P&L after each post  – good discipline for me and occasionally depressing reading for you – but as you can see from yesterday’s post, we made a 43 pt profit entirely thanks to Brian Meehan’s 80-1 winner MONKEY ISLAND which I had tipped alongside the runner-up. This had been mentioned to me on my travels, as working well at home and just needing to get his head around the purpose of racecourses. Cleverly, we swerved (again) a 628 pt exacta, but a profit is a profit. However, that Exacta return makes one realise the importance of always having a Tote account up your sleeve because there is a straightforward rule. You do CSF (the bookies Computerised Straight Forecast) when both your selections are priced below 12/1. You always use the Tote for Exactas, (same thing as CSF – as in pick first and second) because the price represents market sentiment. Less sentiment generally means bigger pools because fewer players think the 80/1 shot is in with a chance.

So we had a couple of quid each-way on that, which paid for dinner at The Queens Arms (delicious). This morning, I “greened up” the Golf, so I will lose nothing and stand to make £150 if any of five possible players win. “Greening” is simply the act on Betfair of trading your portfolio so that all the P&L figures are positive or Green as opposed to Red. Thus the picture below.

This looks like a decent arbitrage situation for the fourth round, with five players in my corner and three against at this stage. Well done, Sandy Lane, whose guidance is as ever invaluable.

There are some long-shots today – including another Brian Meehan runner. I don’t expect them all to come, but if I tip 40 duffs at 50/1 and one wins… Huzzahs all round.

Talking of unlikely, and as I’m on a roll, probably downhill; try these for size.

NEWBURY

13:50 Aston Park Stakes (G3) 1m 4f

DESERT HERO should win- too short

MAXI KING 3 pts e/w

14:25 Highclere Gin Carnarvon Stakes (G3) 6f

JAMES DELIGHT 5 pts Win – with ROOM SERVICE – MISTER SKETCH – ACTION POINT 1 pt e/wINISHFALLEN 1 pt e/w – Selection with other four  – 4 x ¼ pts Reverse Exactas

15:00 Trade Nation London Gold Cup (Hcap) 1m 2f

KINGS GAMBIT – GOODWOOD ODYSSEY 4 pts WinFIGHTER COMMAND 2 pts e/w – 6x½ pt x CFC

15:35 Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (G1) 1m

My short list is INSPIRAL – CHARYN – POKER FACE – HI ROYAL. Too much dancing around on the ground conditions and INSPIRAL’s price is drifting. CHARYN is super consistent and both he and POKER FACE are probably about the right price.  and HI ROYAL should be bigger.

CHARYN 4 pts e/w1 pt RFC with INSPIRAL

NEWMARKET

14:05 JenningsBet Hcap 7f

GRESSINGTON – SERENE SERAPH 7 pts Dutch

14:40 Trust A Trader Hcap 7f

QUEST FOR FUN 4 pts e/wDIVINE LIBRA 1 pt RFC

15:15 JenningsBet Hcap 1m

EPSOM FAITHFUL 2 pts e/w

 

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