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York Ebor Meeting Day 2

The Tissue

The Tissue

His abilities as a jockey, have only been bettered by his Trans-Atlantic swimming attempts.
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Excruciating pain from watching Frankie in the first, come 5th at 20/1 in a bunch finish, the first five covered by no more than 1¼l and well done the BHA handicapping team. I had the next winner on the shortlist and swerved it; the Voltigeur we didn’t bet, thank the Lord,  as I would have been wrong again! There was a brief moment when Frankie looked to have a shout, but Japan was powerful, and King of Comedy was a furlong shy. The winner and third in the penultimate handicap, and a neck 2nd with Troubador at 12/1 in the lucky last. In brief, we wiped our noses with some long-prices, but no purse of substance has been snatched from the bookies. Onto Day 2.

13:55 Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (Fillies’ Group 2) (2yo, Class 1, 6f)

  • 15/15 SP 11/1 or less
  • 14/15 Minimum 2 career runs
  • 14/15 were top 4 in the betting
  • 13/15 C1 or C2 LTO
    • (8/14 ran in Group race)
  • 13/15 Won debut
  • 13/15 22+DSLR
  • 11/12 OR 100+
  • 7/15 Ran over 5f LTO.
    • 8/15 Ran over 6f LTO
  • 13/15 Top 3 LTO
    • 7/8 Won LTO
  • 14/15 2-6 career runs
    • 10/15 2-3 career runs
  • 12/15 Ran at G1 track
  • 2/50 Previous Cherry Hinton winners

Following the trends, I’m only left with two to consider, LIBERTY BEACH and UNDER THE STARS. Liberty Beach, who was noted in running on the far side in The Queen Mary, went onto win a Listed race at Sandown in some style. She then went on to contest the Markel Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood, where, despite hindrance as she gathered herself, quickened up smartly and showed a very decent turn of foot. UNDER THE STARS seemed to have something in hand at Ascot LTO, and while the ground had been a concern to James Tate beforehand, she coped well and has now won on GF and GS. She’s been supplemented for this and has already earned 33/1 quotes for the 1000 Guineas in 2020. WEDJAN only fails the cut, because she has had just the one Newbury Maiden race, where she was steadied leaving the stalls and raced keenly early on at the back of the field. She came stands’ side at the 2f marker, and despite hanging left, she kept on to bag the leader – some might say a shade cosily. I keep waiting for FLIPPA THE STRIPPA to amount to something and I fear she might be a decent handicapper. The one I fear most is AP’s PRECIOUS MOMENTS who gas kept knocking at the Group door and is a filly who one suspects needs to be ridden to the second, She has arrived too soon a couple of times and has paid the price. No, the more I write, the more I think I’m sure about the first two mentioned.

14:25 Goffs UK Premier Yearling Stakes (2yo, Class 2, 6f)

I’m not sure the trends can be trusted, as the race was run at Newmarket in 2008 and the 2002 – 2005 renewals at Doncaster, so let’s go without them.

THREE COINS is 2-2 on ground softer than good, and while she could be a useful handicapper, I don’t fancy her for this – unless it miraculously rains. William Haggas has won this race three times now and fields ST IVES this time. He won at Donny a couple back but appeared to idle when he hit the front. He was then beaten by a nose at Newcastle in a handicap but looked as though he had something in hand. Could this be a bit of a plot? Mark Johnson’s LOVE DESTINY won at Thirsk in the Soft LTO, running green and, much like his rival Space Age, looked a bit awkward. However, he stayed on well to lead late on and is of interest as one to improve. SHOW ME SHOW ME is a troublemaker when loading, but does deserve to be favourite. He was third in the Molecomb behind what I hope was a winning tip in the previous race; has won The Brocklesby and been second in the Supersprint. Charlie Hills’ FLEETING PRINCE is worth a second look having run too badly to be true in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood. He was already in trouble when he was impeded, as he got going. He had shown promise when making all at Windsor in July, a race from which three subsequent winners have emerged. Kieran Shoemark takes the seat back, and Fleeting Prince could take another step forward. The other I fancy is Frankie’s PIECE OF PARADISE. Probably needs 6f and a double-digit draw won’t hurt nor the 2lbs fillies’ allowance. My selections are as always emboldened and italicised for next best.

15:00 Clipper Logistics Handicap (3yo+, Class 2, 7f 192y)

  • 15/15 aged 3yo – 6yo
  • 15/15 were GB or IRE bred
  • 15/15 yet to win above Class 2 level
  • 15/15 ran over 7f-1m LTO
  • 15/15 top 4 finish 1 of last three starts
  • 14/15 no more than 14 handicap starts (1/117 15+)
  • 14/15 previous win came at C2-C3 level
  • 14/15 no more than 23 career starts (1/103 24+)

The trends cut the list down to SENIORITY – BALTIC BARON – PETRUS – HISTORY WRITER – WAFY – BLACKHEATH

BALTIC BARON caught the eye at Goodwood LTO, another of a long list of horses that suffered from traffic. Without trouble, he should have a real chance, as the stable jockey appears to have made a preferential choice. WAFY, by Dubawi, was cut early season and has improved, which isn’t always the case. He needs good or faster ground, (17322) and I can’t ignore his current odds of 16/1. BLACKHEATH comes back to a mile, and he also comes from the Goodwood Book of Noruns.  At 20/1, he can not be ignored.

15:35 Darley Yorkshire Oaks (Fillies’ & Mares’ Group 1) (3yo+, Class 1, 1m 3f 188y)

  • 13/15 Top 3 LTO
  • 15/15 Aged 3yo or 4yo
  • 15/15 8/1 or less SP – and Top 4 in betting
  • 15/15 winners had run in a G2
    • 13/14 G1
  • 10/10 OR 112+
  • 14/15 won at 10f+
  • 15/15 63 or less DSLR
  • 15/15 Minimum 2 seasonal races
  • 15/15 top 3 finish that season
  • 7/9 Irish Oaks Winners won this
  • 10/10 winning 3yo’s had max nine career runs
    • 8/10 had 6-9 runs)
  • 5/5 winning 4yo’s Minimum ten career runs

You’re not going to get rich, so leave this alone and marvel and say to your kids – I was there. She has lost once in her 13-race career of which nine were G1.  Small wonder that only three others have turned up. ENABLE wins, and it could reasonably be said, she rules our Turf. We won’t see her again, racing on English soil, as she is joining me in France in October, where one of us will be attempting to win a third Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe while the other will be close by Cagnes sur Mer, wondering if the Huitres are safe.

16:15 British EBF & Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes (Fillies’ And Mares’ Listed) (3yo+, Class 1, 1m 3f 188y)

FROSTY is not sure to get the extra 2f, so instead, I suggest Dermot Weld’s Irish Oaks fourth, SEARCH FOR A SONG.

16:50 British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap (3yo+, Class 2, 7f)

DIVINITYSALAYEL

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