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25th April 2024 5:38 am

“A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries."

A flat start to The Flat

These Donors Are AMAZING Thank You

William S – MEJi – Peter N – Nigel B – Ken C – Mark S – James D – William M – Fiona M – Julian A – Jonathan H – Mrs V.M – Pete BN – Gavin C – Thom S – Sarah C – Mark S – Sam H – James R

Doesn’t life change rapidly? Last week, the supposed greatest racing festival, today is the start of the Flat season. Yesterday, we went off to Wallingford to see Chitty Chitty Bang Bang done by the local players – which was fab and, in places, rather surprisingly sexy – or maybe I’m just a sad old git. A very jolly time with friends watching their Relly tread the boards. Today, by contrast, was a miserable day for The Hon, who was flying around on several Care missions, none of which were greatly cheering. Like Medecins Sans Frontieres, she is moving mountains and resolving a number of issues that various NHS people seem incapable of dealing with. It’s not the medical element that’s so screwed up, it’s the getting there that’s broken. GP Receptionists, for example, can display a lack of empathy and common sense, that makes the average Cheltenham Car parking attendant seem like the love child of Mother Theresa and Gandhi. (Stop It!: Ed)

Similarly, the news from Kensington Palace changed the original back after Easter to terribly sad. Having lost some very dear friends to the scourge – I truly offer a prayer for The Princess of Wales’ full and speedy recovery.

Sadly, the bad person in me wishes hellfire and damnation on all those feckless bastards who have made her life so recently miserable. Not very Gandhi like I know, but then no one is perfect.

Not all changes are good, although it would be nice to think that the following might work for a change!

The Lincoln Handicap Trophy 2024

1:20 DONCASTER William Hill Doncaster Mile Stks Cl1 (4yo+) 1m 7 run

KNIGHT is in and out like a Swiss cuckoo clock. Simon thinks he is Pattern class. He won the Horris Hill as if to make the point – but then, as the Bishop said, it’s all knocking on the door at G2 level. Plenty of places, but he’s hard to win with. Best OR, loves the ground and is drifting in the market like an unhitched barge. Not for me. CHARYN is consistent and makes the trends, as does HOLLOWAY BOY, which looks like value at around 5/1. You can get 9/2 and 3 places with WillHill or 888, which makes an e/w bet look like insurance for a winning bet to nothing.  Or be butch like me !

HOLLOWAY BOY 4 pts win

1:30 BANGOR-ON-DEE Dragonbet Best Odds Guaranteed Hcap Hdl Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3½f 8 run

Last year’s winner, JUNGLE JACK, is back and from a 4lb higher mark. He went on to win a G3 at Aintree and then, after the summer break, ran over fences where he picked up an injury, had a wind-op, came back and ran a blinder LTO, almost beating Crackling Rhapsody to whom he was giving over a stone. That one has won again since, and this looks set up for a double.

JUNGLE JACK 4 pts Win

1:50 DONCASTER William Hill EBF Brocklesby Stks Cl2 (2yo) 5f 15 run

The market says ATHERSTONE WARRIOR e/w

No Bet

2:10 NEWBURY Bet In-Play On Racing With BetVictor Nov. Hcap Hdl Cl3 (4yo+ 0-130) 2m3f 9 run

NTD runs the hat-trick-seeking SPIRITS BAY, beat decent types home LTO and again looked handy, the week before that. 8lb higher in the ratings, the bottom may not have been reached. He is being backed.  KARTOON AND CO has all the hallmarks of a plot horse. He missed the Fred Winter at The Mullins Festival, selecting instead to run at Sandown the week before, where he employed tactics that would have allowed Fat Gordy on a rocking horse to beat him. Bottom of the weights… I should coco. Sadly, everyone knows it, and he’s been backed from 7s at midnight to 9/4 now. Too late, too late, the maiden cried…  For a bit of sport only, and at 16/1 with Skybet for 4 places, I suggest a little e/w on PRETENDING who is a consistent podium maker for Lucy Wadham and who has Bryony Frost in the plate.

PRETENDING 2 pts e/w with KARTOON AND CO and SPIRITS BAY in 2 x ½pt RFC

2:25 DONCASTER William Hill Epic Boost Spring Mile Hcap Cl2 (4yo+) 1m 18 run

My trends list leaves me five of which WILDFELL’s lack of winning form on the ground leaves him off the list.  The remainers are: MAGIC MEMORIES – DIRTY OLD TOWN – THUNDER ROAR – LOOK BACK SMILING. Of those the last pair have winning course form and Paddy Power and Skybet are both giving 6 places and 8/1 about THUNDER ROAR and 9/1 about LOOK BACK SMILING.

THUNDER ROAR – LOOK BACK SMILING 3 pts e/w each All four in a 12 x ¼ pts CFC

2:40 NEWBURY Get Best Odds Guaranteed At BetVictor Hcap Chase Cl2 (5yo+ 0-150) 2m4f 7 run

With EATON COLLINS a non-runner, my eye is caught by GUNSIGHT RIDGE, who has relatively few miles on the clock and looks to have a nice mark in this – just 2 lbs shy of his last win. If you can get the 5/1 do so now!

GUNSIGHT RIDGE 3 pts Win

3:00 DONCASTER William Hill Cammidge Trophy Stks Cl1 (3yo+) 6f 7 run

Karl Burke has started his campaign early with plenty of talk on the interweb about his ammunition this year. A winner at Chantilly already suggests he is well ahead of the pack and determined to make hay. Thus MARSHMAN’s 4/1  seems reasonable, but the first four in the market are within a point of each other with Willie Haggas’ MONTASSIB  also taking money out of the market.  However, a little birdy told me that Rod Millman is very sweet on ADAAY IN DEVON’s chances in this – but it is very tight. I shall just do a couple of forecasts based on the market nearer the off.

NO BET 

3:15 NEWBURY British EBF BetVictor Mares’ Nov. Hdl (G2) (GBB) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4½f 17 run

There’s only one here for me – I say that and see two more almost immediately – and that is LARCHMONT LASS, who, on previous form, looks pretty well handicapped and has, I suspect, been laid out for this. Also on my shortlist  is OOH BETTY and EL ELEFANTE. The former is 25/1 in a couple of places (Paddy Power and Betfair) which might interest you to five places

LARCHMONT LASS 4 pts Win – OOH BETTY 1 pts e/w

3:35 DONCASTER William Hill Lincoln Cl2 (4yo+) 1m 22 run

MIGRATION won this last year off a mark of 107. He’s been beaten since – but still arrives here only 4lbs higher. He loves the ground and is good off a break. AWAAL is now a non-runner, and LIBERTY LANE, who won over CD last September (now 5lb higher) and CHAZZESMEE, who won the Irish Lincolnshire on Monday (5lb penalty), head the market. JOHAN won this race off 102 in 2022, going on to win a decent glorious handicap at Goodwood last year off 103. He, too, goes well fresh and loves soft ground. LATTAM has his first start for Julie Camacho, and he won the Irish Lincolnshire for William Haggas last year of 87. He won again in June at Newcastle off 94 and his current mark just 1lb higher looks fair. He has to be held up – on this ground and in a cavalry charge, you need some luck, but that’s the name of the game. Charlie Johnston has both THE GATEKEEPER and DUTCH DECOY. There is little to separate them. But THE GAMEKEEPER’s Balmoral Handicap victory at Ascot on Champions Day means he has to give DUTCH DECOY 7 lbs, which is a large lump. Finally, I am taken by NAVAGIO, who used to be trained in Ireland and is now trained by James Horton. He goes on soft and he is 33211 over 8-9f. It’s the sort of luck that kickstarts careers and makes for headlines. My three against the field are:

LATTAM 4 pts e/w – BLUES EMPEROR 3 pts e/w – NAVAGIO 2 pts e/w

One Response

  1. TOTAL PROFIT THIS POST 36.83 pts
    1:20 DONCASTER HOLLOWAY BOY 4 pts Win 4th 15/2 LOST -4
    1:30 BANGOR-ON-DEE JUNGLE JACK 4 pts Win 6th 9/2 LOST -4 Tot -8
    1:50 DONCASTER No Bet Tot -8
    2:10 NEWBURY PRETENDING 2 pts e/w 2nd 11/1 +2.40 -5.6
    with KARTOON AND CO and SPIRITS BAY in 2 x ½pt RFC -2 -7.6
    2:25 DONCASTER THUNDER ROAR 3 pts e/w 5/1F 2nd +0 – LOOK BACK SMILING 3 pts e/w Won +30.6 +25
    2:25 DONCASTER All four mentioned in a 12 x ¼ pts CFC (-3 +47.30/4=) +8.83 +33.83
    2:40 NEWBURY GUNSIGHT RIDGE 3 pts Win 3rd 6/1 LOST -6 27.83
    3:00 DONCASTER NO BET
    3:15 NEWBURY LARCHMONT LASS 4 pts Win 4th 5/1 LOST -4 23.83
    OOH BETTY 1 pts e/w 3rd 22/1 +3.4 27.23
    3:35 DONCASTER LATTAM 4 pts e/w 2nd 16/1 +8.8 36.03
    BLUES EMPEROR 3 pts e/w 17th 11/1 Lost -6 30.03
    NAVAGIO 2 pts e/w 3rd 22/1 +6.80 36.83

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