The day has started well with my “greening up” the Betfair Golf position, thanks to Ludvig Aberg’s 4-shot lead in the Scottish Open. As I have said before, Sandy Lane’s tips are focused on the sports odds betting market- but with multiple selections to cover, I prefer to use the betting exchange market. When you back or lay a selection on Betfair, your potential profit is shown in green, while your possible loss is displayed in red. Securing a profit through trading price differences means both amounts are now green. This is a ‘green book’.
In effect then, I have locked in a guaranteed profit no matter what happens on the course. “Greening up”, or achieving a “green book”, is essentially the same process as financial traders follow buying and selling any commodity. The aim is to purchase an item for a certain amount and then shift it to a higher price. In exchange terms, you lay low and back high, or vice versa. You’re not, in reality, trying to back winners or lay losers, but to make money from the odds movements in the market.
So I backed Aberg, for example, at a price of 16.5, together with seven other players. My total investment was 42.30 pts. This morning, Aberg was 2.94 – 2.96 (Buy – Sell), and IF he wins the Scottish Open, my original bet would have paid me 224.75 pts. But then Aberg still has two rounds to play, he has a four-shot lead, and McIlroy is closing on him like a steam train. So, by using the automated trading system, Betfair can see this potential or book profit based on a price of 16.5 and use that theoretical or “book” profit to place a new “matching” bet at the new odds.
I adjusted the size of that matching bet so that I would [a] get my original stake back and [b] still have enough book profit (or what might be called trading capital) to make further investments throughout the game – depending on how well the selections are going. Alternatively I do nothing and get a 50 pt profit.
Fixed odds or betting exchanges are two very different routes, but the aim is the same: to profit from an interest in sporting action. Don’t forget we have The Open starting at Troon this Thursday, and Sandy Lane will give us his suggestions. We will run a direct comparison with real money to give an illustrated example of how the two systems work in real-time. £1 e/w on the Fixed Odds and £2 win on the Exchange.
Meanwhile, there are 11 very tricky races on ITV this afternoon, which will make writing a few accas (Accumulation bets—doubles, trebles, etc.) quite tricky. Gently does it I think…
Ascot and Newmarket: Good – G/S in places: York GS
1:45 ASCOT A1R Services Heritage Hcap Cl2 (3yo+) 5f 19 run
FAIR WIND 3 pts Win – ROHAAN 2 pts e/w
2:00 YORK John Smith’s Racing Hcap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m 16 run
RON O 3 pts e/w
2:12 NEWMARKET Bedford Lodge Hotel & Spa Fillies’ Hcap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 7f 11 run
DIVINE BREATH 4 pts e/w
2:20 ASCOT Anne Cowley Memorial Summer Mile Stakes (G2) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m 9 run
SONNY LISTON 5 pts Win – BESHTANI 2 pts e/w
2:35 YORK John Smith’s City Walls Stakes Cl1 (3yo+) 5f 9 run
YEFIMENKO 2 pts e/w
2:50 NEWMARKET bet365 Mile Hcap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 1m 14 run
VOLTERRA 4 pts Win – LIVEANDLETLIVE 1 pt RFC
2:57 ASCOT Not on telly PAROLE D’ORO is considered particularly nice.
PAROLE D’ORO 3 pts e/w
3:10 YORK John Smith’s Cup Hcap Cl2 (3yo+) 1m2½f 22 run
LIBERTY LANE 5 pts e/w – TAKE HEART 3 pts e/w
3:25 NEWMARKET bet365 Superlative Stakes (G2) Cl1 (2yo) 7f 9 run
ANCIENT TRUTH 6 pts Win
3:45 YORK John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes (G3) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m6f 8 run
Dutch AL QAREEM – ALSAKIB 7 pts – 1 pt RFC
4:00 NEWMARKET bet365 Bunbury Cup Cl2 (3yo+) 7f 20 run
FINNS CHARM – GORAK – DARK THIRTY 2½ pts e/w each
4:35 NEWMARKET My Pension Expert July Cup Stakes (G1) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f 12 run
INISHERIN 7 pts Win – 3 x ½ pt SFC to beat MITBAAHY – VADREAM – SWINGALONG