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York Ebor Day 4 – The Road to Damascus in a combination forecast

Capt. Kneesup

Capt. Kneesup

Capt. Kneesup was the former Racing Correspondent of various BBC regional radio stations and was the gossip columnist on the now-defunct Odds On magazine. He now runs Nick Boyd's large, privately owned reputation, which is widely regarded as a sporting, not-for-profit endeavour.
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While the power went off and on and my desktop went tonto, I had time yesterday to reflect on how one might have done better this week. Sure we had a cracking start, yes we tipped some winners, yes we’re in profit – but that is mainly because we headed down the “exotics” avenue and had a couple of forecasts. *.

Then I re-read some of my earlier scribblings and had a eureka moment.

9 2 19 8 12 14 1 2 4
5 1 6 2 3 6 2 4 6
3 1 5 2 11 13 4 8 7
2 1   4 5   3 6 7
2 6 17 1 5 10 1 10 7
2 8 4 10 8 1 3 2 4
4 2 14 1 5 8 2 5 1

These are the stall numbers for the podium places for every race at York so far this week. (For example, in the last race on Wednesday, at 4:50 – numbers highlighted in yellow – the first three home were drawn 4-2-14).

In fact, the first two places in 12 of the 21 races were filled by horses drawn 1-5. I had already said on Day 1 that low draws had an advantage – but I had no idea that on GS ground or with some cut, that it would be so distinctive. So I asked myself what would happen if we simply backed blind stalls 1-5 in a combination forecast. In brief, a five-horse combination exacta or forecast would cost 20 pts – and would have shown a profit of almost £328 with the bookies and £240 with The Tote. If you’re interested, the figures can be found on this sheet HERE.

I am NOT recommending you take this course of action, but I think I might experiment with this on what looks to be a tricky day on The Knavesmire.

Sporty if nothing else.

*In future, when I worry I am not explaining myself clearly I have created a “Wiki-Race” menu item, (see the menu link above), and in-page, where highlighted links will take you to a post useful info. The first one covers Forecasts. 

I suspect York will receive at least 3mm of rain and the ground will be G/S good in places at the start and G/S by the end. Sandown is GS pretty well all over. My racing selections are:-

1:50 YORK Sky Bet And Symphony Group Strensall Stakes (G3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m1f

I have it down to four – POGO – DARK VISION – MISS O’CONNOR – ZABEEL PRINCE, but the latter just ticks a couple more boxes than the others.

ZABEEL PRINCE e/w

2:05 SANDOWN Betway H’cap Cl3 (3yo 0-90) 1m2f

NEW CHAPTER wins BALZAC e/w

2:25 YORK Sky Bet Melrose H’cap (Heritage H’cap) Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 1m6f

He meets the trends, but KING CHARISMA is on a hat-trick – but it is one over increasing distances, and I am not convinced he’ll get 14f. A STAR ABOVE hit my notebook at Goodwood, but again will he get the extra 2f? The two Balding runners interest me. PUNCTUATION especially, having been given a very ordinary ride by Oisin Murphy LTO, when he stumbled leaving the stall and was then badly positioned when the time came to challenge. Frankly, his 3l beating was almost entirely down to that and a more positive ride from today’s jock, PJ, makes his price look far too big. COLTRANE gets 3lb from young Cieren Fallon, and looked decent at Newmarket LTO. Again 12s is too big.

PUNCTUATION e/w – COLT%RANE e/w – Add the other two mentioned for a ¼pt CFC (12 bets at 0.25 pts = 3 pts)

2:40 SANDOWN Heed Your Hunch At Betway H’cap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 1m

GIN PALACE e/w

3:00 YORK Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (G2) Cl1 (3yo+) 7f

ONE MASTER’s shd at Goodwood LTO was not so much the ability of the others, as the traffic problems she encountered. Be wary of BEAT LE BON who looks like a squatter in the stalls. ESCOBAR has had a wind-op and his dramatic improvement as a result displayed in his 3rd in The Lennox LTO makes 14/1 interesting.

ONE MASTER wins – ESCOBAR e/w

3:15 SANDOWN Play 4 To Win At Betway H’cap Cl3 (3yo 0-90) 1m

OH PURPLE REIGN e/w – NAVAL COMMANDER e/w

3:40 YORK Sky Bet Ebor H’cap (Heritage H’cap) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m6f

Really, really tricky. FUJAIRA PRINCE – MONICA SHERIFF – ALRIGHT SUNSHINE – SHAILENE – GHOSTWATCH. The trends give us five and a slightly wider interpretation would add PONDUS and DEJA.

ALRIGHT SUNSHINE he looks to have been aimed at this. I’ve backed TRUESHAN e/w ante-post. PONDUS will handle whatever the ground and ran well at Ascot. DEJA is of interest.

I’m doing those four all e/w and add a ¼pt CFC.

3:55 SANDOWN Betway Fillies’ H’cap Cl5 (3yo+ 0-70) 7f

FOXY FEMME e/w

4:10 YORK Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (2yo) 5f

BLACKBERRY e/w

4:40 Sky Bet H’cap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m2½f

MAYDANNY win

5:10 Sky Bet Apprentice H’cap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 5f

LIVE IN THE MOMENT wins

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