I watched the CNN presidential debate this morning, with some scenes that may haunt us over the next few months. It was not Presidential on anybody’s behalf. It was rambling, at times incoherent, and above all sad. There was a moment when I thought maybe this was the plan all the time. Run this debate early, get his wife Jill – the only person he will listen to – to get Joe to retire on health grounds and for the nation’s good. Then introduce the younger, vibrant Kennedy-style democratic candidate they have hidden in an unknown Superhero’s lair, get him/her endorsed by the Biden patriarch, and away we go. Instead, she stood beside him in front of the cheering crowd and, with him grinning vacantly beside her, said, “Joe, you did such a great job,” she said it, as if talking to a great-grandchild. “You answered every question!” No, Jill dear, he really didn’t, and you know it.
If I were being harsh, I would certainly be wary of leaving him alone in a kitchen with a cooker, let alone with The Suitcase.
We might be overdoing this “Euro 24 England Southgate Bah Humbug” trope nationally. I did a little analysis to see how poor it has been to date and comparatively, and whilst not inspiring, it isn’t that bad. My theory was that it might have something to do with the 24-team format instead of the original 16.
Introducing a 24-team finals format ahead of Euro 2016 prompted worries that some sides getting to the finals wouldn’t be good enough to compete with the elite. The idea that UEFA would admit a side from Nations League C — those ranked 33rd and below among its 55 member countries — to the tournament starting in Euro 2020 was also, at the time, controversial. However, no team was completely out of their depth in the group tournament. Only one game had more than 3 goals scored in it; every team won at least one point; the bottom team in each group had had in almost every case, a chance to qualify even in their last match. Plenty of those teams weren’t especially exciting, but they weren’t overmatched.
Certainly, England has been dull, but then their entire Group C was hardly inspirational. It’s also fair to suggest that the third games in each group weren’t the best—but at least there was tension. The Georgian game was brilliant and rocked a Portugese 2nd XI. Croatia thought they were through—until Italy’s 98th-minute goal. Group A had a 92nd-minute goal in Germany’s game, and a 100th-minute goal led Hungary to think they had qualified. In Group E, all four sides ended on four points, and the last pair of games ended in draws. A late winner for any side would have put them on top, or a late concession, and they were out. Ukraine, in the end, finished bottom on goal difference.
How have we done in our predictions?
We suggested in OUR POST at the beginning of the competition the following Group finishing orders:
GROUP A: Germany – Switzerland – Hungary – Scotland CORRECT
GROUP B: Spain – Italy – Croatia – Albania CORRECT
GROUP C: England – Denmark – Serbia – Slovenia First Two correct – the Slovenia and Serbia
GROUP D: France – Netherlands – Austria – Poland WRONG Austria – France – Netherlands – Poland
GROUP E: Belgium – Ukraine – Romania – Slovakia WRONG Romania – Belgium – Slovakia – Ukraine
GROUP F: Portugal – Turkiye – Czech Republik – Georgia First Two correct – the Georgia – Czechia
Those results have also turned the KO stage upside down, with the Group finishing positions putting France and Germany into the top half of the Round of 16. That kills off my Finals and Semi-finals predictions.
I think it will get far grittier now – and my next surprise will be in the top half of the draw.
Georgia, perhaps for the quarter finals?
It could be 60 degrees in the shade this weekend, but I won’t need the Factor 50 because I’ll be glued to the TV. As far as I have researched, this is the main schedule.
SATURDAY
Racing:
- Newcastle and Newmarket (from 1:30 pm ITV)
Euro 2024, last 16:
- Switzerland v Italy (5 pm, ITV)
- Germany v Denmark (8 pm, ITV)
T20 Cricket
- World Cup final (3.30 pm, Sky Sports)
Formula 1
- Austrian Grand Prix sprint (11 am, Sky Sports)
- Austrian Grand Prix qualifying (3 pm, Sky Sports)
SUNDAY
Euro 2024, last 16
- England v Slovakia (5 pm, ITV)
- Spain v Georgia (8 pm, ITV)
Tour de France
- Stage 2 (11am, Eurosport)
Formula 1
- Austrian Grand Prix (2 pm, Sky Sports)
I feel, in simplistic terms, that Willie Haggas might have a cracking Saturday across the card. See my suggested punt at the end.
1:35 NEWCASTLE Jenningsbet 200 Shops Nationwide Hcap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f 14 Run
STRIKE RED and LIR SPECIALE are both on my trends radar. The first of the pair is trained by Richard Fahey, and I quite fancied him for the Wokingham last week. He ran better than his finishing position suggests. It might have been the ground – and like several runners at this meeting – is perhaps looking for a surface they can win on whilst racing off a winnable mark. Strike Red’s track from is 411450, all over CD, barring his debut. Ignore his last track start; the first race from 10-month lay-off, given far too much to do, and when Richard Fahey was off-form. LIR SPECIALE has seen early money and coming from a gambling yard you should situp and take notice. This stiff 6f is likely to suit as his best form has been over 7f, and he previously placed around here from 4lb lower, so has a live chance of a podium. Haggas has been off-form for part of the season but is showing signs of strength in the six-furlong division. WILTSHIRE beat some very experienced handicappers on his seasonal debut. He was either off-colour (like the stable) or found the ground too sharp when failing over the same 6f at Newbury more recently. He is 2-2 on AW and can bounce back.
WILTSHIRE 4 pts Win – STRIKE RED 2pts e/w – LIR SPECIALE 2 pts e/w – 6 x ½ pt boxed Exacta
2:04 NEWCASTLE Jenningsbet Chipchase Stakes (G3) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f 11 Run
MONTASSIB did not line up G1 QEII Jubilee Stakes as was predicted and is capable of better than the 4l 6th of 14 in a York G2 LTO
MONTASSIB 3 pts e/w
2:15 Maureen Brittain Memorial Empress Fillies’ Stakes Cl1 (2yo) 6f 13 Run
TALES OF THE HEART looked useful when making a winning debut at Kempton 24 days ago. She should continue to improve and trainer Ralph Beckett won this race in 2020 & 2022.
TALES OF THE HEART 4 pts Win
2:35 NEWCASTLE Jenningsbet Festival Northumberland Vase Hcap Cl2 (3yo+) 2m½f 14 Run
BELGOPRINCE is trained by the currently suspended Tony Martin Mrs C O’Leary and ran second in an 18f handicap hurdle at Sligo LTO. His pilot dropped a rein, and he was beaten ½l – although the handicapper raised him 3lbs to a mark of 100. PONS AELIUS would not be a surprise if seen on the podium. The trend horse is ALPHOINE LE GRAND, also in Mrs O’Leary’s charge and still the favourite despite an 8lb rise for his LTO performance in The Chester Plate. In a tricky race I also fancy HAVEYOUMISSEDME, whose best rating performances have been on the this track. He was 2nd to Zoffee from 6lb higher in 2022 and his course form figures are 212.
BELGO PRINCE 3 pts e/w – HAVEYOUMISSED ME 2 pts e/w – 12 x ¼pt Boxed Exacta with PONS AELIUS and ALPHOINE LE GRAND
2:50 JCB Fred Archer Stakes Cl1 (4yo+) 1m4f 6 Run
Both VERBIER and DEAUVILLE LEGEND are the wrong price, and this is not the strongest-looking race. This is just a little sporting tickle for amusement.
DEAUVILLE LEGEND 2 pts e/w
3:10 NEWCASTLE Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate Hcap Cl2 (3yo+) 2m½f 20 Run
Almost because the man is such a hero, a true legend or perhaps an eminence gris, widely known, respected and admired within so many different yet historically related worlds: from racing to coursing; from bullfighting to dog breeding; from cigars to art and antiques. There are also few his equal in working the handicap system, witnessed by the fact that he has four runners in this since it was switched to the AW and they have finished 4,3,5 and 7. TROOPER BISDEE has looked like an improved stayer, winning at Nottingham and Pontefract. He looked ahead of the handicapper at Pontefract, and the 5lb penalty he’s got for winning 6 days ago won’t prevent him from going close if he handles Tapeta. TRUE LEGEND has no problem with the surface, having won here last spring and finishing as the runner-up on both this season’s starts. He seemingly stayed 1m 6f last time at Goodwood and looks worth a first try at two miles. I shall back both TROOPER BISDEE and TRUE LEGEND. Regarding trends, TASHKAN stands out, and I shall use him for forecasts. I would advise against backing anything in the lower quarter of the draw (Stalls 1-5). In eight runnings on the AW, 32 horses won and placed, and only 1 came from stalls 1-5. Just saying.
TROOPER BISDEE 5 pts Win – TRUE LEGEND 2 pts e/w – with TASHKAN and SPARTAN ARMY in 12 x ¼ pt Exactas and 24 x 0.1 pt Trifectas
3:25 Plantation Stud Criterion Stakes (G3) Cl1 (3yo+) 7f 6 Run
TIBER FLOW deserved his 2nd G3 after a tenacious ride in the John of Gaunt. He bounced back from his fall in the Duke Of York and had to manoeuvre from one flank to the other to get a clear run. Once there, he met more trouble but still quickened up the best. He is now 3-4 over 7f and this looks well within his compass.
TIBER FLOW 5 pts win
3:40 NEWCASTLE Pertemps Network Hcap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 7f 12 Run
MAKE ME A KING is one of Wathnan Racing’s many purchases and is decent on a going day. He ran well on the turf & dirt at Meydan over the winter and set up the race nicely for English Oak when 8th of 26 in the Buckingham Palace 9 days ago. Sadly, he offers no value, and I would only back him at 7s – which we won’t get. UNITED APPROACH has all the look of a Pattern-class horse in waiting and has had just four career starts. He is a promising 4th of 11 on seasonal/handicap debut at Newbury (6f) LTO, and his breeding suggests he’s open to improvement. He looks like a big player, and if he likes the AW surface, he should get a strong pace to chase. ZIP is a three-time course winner, including C&D, and should go well on a suitable surface.
UNITED APPROACH 4 pts win – ZIP 2 pts e/w
HAGGAS CRAZY BET
28 x 0.2 doubles – 56 x 0.1 Trebles – 8 x 0.2 e/w Sevenfold – 1 x 1.00 e/w eightfold = 16.4 pt investment. (I use the term advisedly! I will have cashed out well before it becomes an issue.)
1:35 Wiltshire Newcastle (AW)
2:04 Montassib Newcastle (AW)
2:42 Art Market Windsor
3:17 Fior Di Bosco Windsor
3:25 Tiber Flow Newmarket
3:35 Sunfall Chester
3:52 To Catch A Thief Windsor
6:25 Dark Sun Doncaster