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Newmarket Day 3 and the ITV races.

Capt. Kneesup

Capt. Kneesup

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Not the most sparkling Friday, and I apologise. I think there are days when one is simply trying to over-deliver – certainly I overthought it. There was nothing among the winners that really surprised me, but I never even discussed them, and indeed I dismissed a number on the grounds of price rather than ability.  Even in the Falmouth, just as I thought we might at least pull a place out of the hat, the absolute no-hoper Lavender Blue swung left and almost caused a huge accident for Champers Elysee, who we will keep on side, as he will definitely win this year. La Maquina got backed and did win for us, and King of Stars and the inestimable Silvestre de Sousa almost won the lucky last from the front, with Charlie Fellowes another selection to get a battering. So a disappointing and irritating day.

In the footy, my fingers are crossed for England, Sadly the only way I can see them winning is for me to back against them. So, like the traitorous dog I am, I will back Italy to win 2-1 and 3-0 and will I sell the time of the third match goal at 81 mins and buy the Cards total. I fear this Sunday will be ugly one way or the other. I hope my sacrifice will be worth it, because, on my current tipping form, England are a shoo-in and the second Monday in July will be declared a new Bank Holiday!

Talking of giving the banks a break, here are today’s selections:

1:30 NEWMARKET Rossdales British EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes Cl3 (2yo) 7f RTV 10 Run

Dutch the pair WILDERNESS GIRL and EPHRATA. Great pedigrees and Andrew Balding in particular is on fire at the moment.

WILDERNESS GIRL – EPHRATA Dutch Win

1:45 YORK John Smith’s Racing Hcap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV 19 Run

A tricky little race where it is easy to make a case for most of them. Haggas loves plundering a York handicap, and his AJYAALL, has got nice form and was a decent 4th on his seasonal debut, and he has a competitive mark. Iain Jardine’s JUMP THE GUN, also appeals having been backed LTO and hosing up at Hamilton. He’ll need to improve – but that is not stretching credulity too far. CHICHESTER also appeals as an e/w bet and as a horse in form in a wide-open race.

AJYAALL e/w – plus add the other two in a 6 x ½ pt CFC

2:05 NEWMARKET (JULY) Bedford Lodge Hotel & Spa Fillies’ Hcap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 7f ITV 12 Run

SHE DO got 6lbs from SAMOOT in The Sandringham and now on the better ground and getting well over a stone, they’ll be much closer together. KINGMANIA is the one that worries me most.

SHE DO e/w

2:20 YORK John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes (G3) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV 11 Run

HUKUM, was third in the Hardwicke (G2) LTO and is fitted with a tongue-tie for the first time. ILARAAB would concern me as he had trouble in rinning in that same race, while SONNYBOYLISTON is very consistent and is progressing at a rate.

SONNYBOYLISTON e/w

2:40 NEWMARKET (JULY) bet365 Mile Hcap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 1m ITV 7 Run

ROYAL FLEET Win

3:00 ASCOT Betfred Summer Mile Stakes (G2) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m ITV 10 Run

This looks very competitive with the uneasy favourite TILSIT almost winning the Prix d’Ispahan at Longchamp LTO. and this represents a drop in class. The same could be said of SIR BUSKER who loves Ascot and having finished third in the Queen Anne, looks for a G2. while Century Dream and Top Rank are also high on the shortlist. At the moment the latter is just backable e/w, but I think we’ll dutch the pair of them and keep our fingers crossed.

SIR BUSKER – TILSIT Dutched Win

3:15 NEWMARKET (JULY) bet365 Superlative Stakes (G2) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV 9 Run

NATIVE TRAIL is favourite for this based on his very easy win at Sandown LTO. DHABAB looked unlucky in the Coventry  – but the Superlative isn’t generally taken by an Ascot player. MOT AND THE MESSER is a crazy e/w bet, but he won LTO by 5¼ l and is both progressive and impressive. It will be interesting to see if GREAT MAX handles the ground after his third in the Chesham mud. He finished like a train and he is probably going to be a 10f horse next year.

NATIVE TRAIL Win – MOT THE MESSER e/w

3:35 ASCOT Betfred Heritage Hcap Cl2 (3yo+) 5f ITV 20 Run

I was originally going to suggest SHOWALONG but then I thought it might have rained a bit more. There is some juice in the ground for sure, but I think it might just be too fast for him.I have it down to two and they are SIGNIFICANTLY and HURRICANE IVOR. The latter looked impressive when winning at Sandown (dead heat) last weekend.

SIGNIFICANTLY Win – HURRICANE IVOR e/w

3:50 NEWMARKET (JULY) bet365 Bunbury Cup Hcap Cl2 (3yo+) 7f ITV 20 Run

The trends point to SYMBOLIZE and ROPEY GUEST, but I also quite like the look of  FUNDAMENTAL who has been running in Listed and Group company and I suspect is better than this.

FUNDAMENTAL Win – SYMBOLIZE e/w – ROPEY GUEST e/w

4:05 YORK John Smith’s Cup Hcap Cl2 (3yo+) 1m2½f ITV 22 Run

FISHABLE has had this as a target since May. He’s a Ripon specialist but hasn’t run too badly here. There’s been a bit of money this morning for WHATS THE STORY for some reason and I also like the look of STRAIT OF HORMUZ and GOOD BIRTHDAY.

FISHABLE e/w – STRAIT OF HORMUZ e/w

4:25 NEWMARKET (JULY) Darley July Cup Stakes (G1) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV 19 Run

It’s very hard to see OXTED losing from his mark but there are a couple in this who might give him a fright. Clive Cox SUPREMACY had some of my money on him for The Commonwealth Cup ante-post, but the preps went wrong. and with blinkers now added, SUPREMACY could give us a decent run. STARMAN has a good chance for Ed Walker, unsurprisingly given his four wins from five starts to date, including the G2 Duke Of York Stakes LTO. There is a question mark over how he’ll handle Newmarket, but time will tell. GARRUS meets all the trends and with places down to 6th can’t be ignored. GLEN SHIEL wont mind cut in the ground and I was also pointed to METHOD by a reliable source. Skybet are going six places.

SUPREMACY e/w – GLEN SHIEL e/w – GARRUS e/w

4:40 YORK John Smith’s City Walls Stakes Cl1 (3yo+) 5f ITV 11 Run

WINTER POWER came powering home two races back here and looked very decent. He then ran in the Kings Stand where he went off too quickly and got swamped. That said, he finished 9th of 16 and was 5l off the winner! De Sousa has got the measure of him.

WINTER POWER Win

5:00 NEWMARKET Price Promise At bet365 Hcap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 1m4f RTV 12 Run

PARACHUTE Win – SPIRIT MIXER e/w

3 Responses

  1. I fear that you are having problems with sex. Not for the first time.

    “Champers Elysee, who we will keep on side, as he will definitely win this year”. She, dear boy.

    1. Dear EmmTee,
      Thank you so much for correcting my typo. It is only the spirit of the all-embracing team ethic that keeps the raceweb engine turning at all and knowing that there are people out there who are keen to correct for the sake of accuracy makes my heart beat just a little faster. We are better together. Incidentally, I missed your note of congratulations on only being £8.20 down on £2000+ of investments, a record of accuracy which I feel few racing professionals could match over the same period.

      1. I read your pieces for the amusing intros. I am not actually a betting man and not that interested in racing these days!

        Keep up the good work.

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