Yesterday’s Raceweb advisory was a tale of two halves. On the real and considered side of the equation, we were +4pts with a win and two decent places. Then in the second half I also referenced an amusing possible Ryan Moore Across the card “fun” bet, by which, I hope you understand, I mean very, very small bets in the 10p range, or to just keep a considered eye on it. Nevertheless, I have included it in my daily score and it cost 11.2 pts and returned 4.57pts. That turned the whole day into a negative.
I saw none of the action until the evening, as I was out and about in Gloucestershire all day. The Hon Plantagenet is minded to up sticks, and in her mind, Gloucestershire replaces my original (probably unviable) plan to undergo French Geographical Transitioning. As we travelled, I simply scored the county’s Tillages and Towns by their French Cafes, Restaurants, Bistros and Brasseries. How ludicrous that we are still uncivilised enough not to have embraced the PMU cafe and Bar Tabac. “Bonjour Pierre; un cafe marc, le jambon baguette et un €5 Tiercé Classic en course cinq. Merci et Jolie Bon.” All with a free table, sight of a TV and space for a facemask, a pichet de vin rouge, and a copy of Paris Turf.
I have to tell you that Prestbury came close with a Brasserie Blanc but then spoiled it by serving a very ordinary, overpriced meal. I am afraid Maman Blanc would have been ashamed the family name had been put to such nonsense. A dismal wifi system, that has apparently not worked since Berners Lee invented the damned thing; a Moroccan Meze which would bring about a second Arab revolt if it were served in La Belle Maroc; and an adequate grilled squid served with a salad the same size as Macdonalds put on a burger. Just shy of £40, I weep for the Irish in March and more so for the locals every day.
Talking of tears, here are some brief pointers to today’s Newmarket action as well as two from York. York is running GS (plus ca change) while Newmarket rides GF.
1:15 Weatherbys Bloodstock Pro British EBF Maiden Stakes Cl3 (2yo) 7f
SWEEPING (11/4) is the obvious favourite with far superior Timeform and raceform ratings to those with experience. Gosden & Co run two and Havlin has been given the unraced VELAZQUEZ (9/1), while David Egan gets ALTRAIF who was 4th to Lusail LTO, who won the G2 yesterday. He is being backed and as I write you can still get 12/1 with Bet 365, but 15/2 generally. Charlie Appleby also runs a brace and Frankie’s got STORMY OCEAN (15/2) who showed promise LTO. I suspect I’ve named the winner, but I’m only choosing one from a list of unknown quantities.
1:50 bet365 Hcap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 1m2f
Mark Johnston’s figures for the last decade in this patently targeted race are 6W – 1P – 24R so one has to check out his two starting with HEADINGLEY. He led at Ayr on Sunday last, until the 2f pole and then dropped away, wearing blinkers for the first time. He is now tried in cheekpieces and if he runs badly today I suspect the unkindest cut of all beckons. Something’s wrong in his head, but keep an eye on him nonetheless. He has the ability for sure, but he might not be sure where he’s hidden it. (I’ve just his price and I’d see if you can get 4 places at 25/1 or better still 5 places at 20/1. At that price he’s super value). His other runner KING FRANKEL has been mixing it in good company at big meetings, with a 4th at Royal Ascot, a very-close second at Epsom and a second in the London Gold Cup at Newbury before that. Just an unlucky horse? He’s being backed and I don’t think I’m interested. HIGHLAND ROCKER is another who is the wrong price at 20s. His dismal performance at Newbury LTO, (again London Gold Cup), was blamed on the ground, and given a freshen up, I expect him to run well. I suspect the winner might be PETER THE GREAT, HIGHLAND ROCKER’s stable companion. Unraced at two, and needed a shake when he hit the front LTO, he won with plenty in hand despite the greenness. This is tougher but the rise in Class suggests Gosden has confidence.
PETER THE GREAT Win – HIGHLAND ROCKER e/w – HEADINGLEY e/w (Back now e/w for 5 places generally at 20/1)
2:05 YORK williamhill.com Best Odds Guaranteed Hcap Cl4 (4yo+ 0-85) 1m4f
BOLLIN JOAN is a C&D winner, has won her last two starts, yes she’s top-weight, but she’ll happily carry it this extra and suitable 2f – especially with her decent 5lb claimer. CARLOS FELIX strikes me as being the wrong price. The ground will suit, he’s only four and he’s a Dan Skelton cast-off, who one suspects needs fast ground. The other I fancy is GALIDERMES who is a fair performer and whose last run can be safely ignored. 16s or better is an attractive e/w punt.
BOLLIN JOAN e/w – GALIDERMES e/w
2:25 (Bet365) Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (G2) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 6f
This is like a rerun of the Albany, with the first three home and an unlucky 13th all running here. If you remember – and I will never forget – the rain was incessant that Friday and the ground had turned Heavy. SANDRINE handled it best, beating HELLO YOU and OSCULA home, with the favourite FLOTUS labouring in the unloved ground. Drawn 12, OSCULA raced alone down the stand side and in the circumstances a 2l defeat was pretty good. On better ground, I have to say I fancy her. Sadly I also fancy FLOTUS who I know Frankie saved when he saw she was beaten and hating the ground. I think I’m going to dutch the pair of them and do the forecast.
OSCULA and FLOTUS Dutch Win
2:40 YORK William Hill Summer Stakes (G3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f
Kevin Ryan returns DEXTER BELLE to 6f, which is her correct distance as she showed so well at Pontefract back in April, taking a novice by 5½l in the manner of a very useful type. DANDALLA was an unfancied 4th in the Commonwealth Cup having taken the Albany Stakes the year before and I suspect she is underestimated.
DANDALLA e/w – DEXTER BELLE e/w
3:00 bet365 Trophy Hcap Cl2 (4yo+) 1m6f
THRONE HALL seems solid in the market for a horse who tends to suffer from – much like The Hon. form Threshold Paralysis. Talk about dwelt…. He always seems a horse capable of more and maybe he needs 14f+ to be seen to advantage. In any event, 12s is a tad overpriced. LOSTWITHIEL has some merit and there appears to be some market interest. The three I fancy however are HOCHFELD who tried to win the Northumberland Plate from the front, ARTHURIAN FABLE who ran well (and was fancied) at Ascot and THEMAXWECAN who is only 2lbs shy of his last winning mark and who has been knocking at the door. Again I suspect the winner is amongst those named.
ARTHURIAN FABLE Win – THEMAXWECAN e/w – HOCHFELD e/w + 20 x ¼ CFC with LOSTWITHIEL and THRONE HALL
3:35 Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (G1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m
A great race that will start to align the Filly and Mare Miler Stars. The first five from the Coronation Stakes meet the first five from Duke of Cambridge makes it sound like an episode of Game of Thrones. The races were important because they saw form being overturned and new lines being set – but on noticeably different ground. One that didn’t go was PRIMO BACIO who was 4th behind ALCOHOL FREE in the Fred Darling, before going on to take the Michael Seeley at York over a mile by 3l. We backed CHAMPERS ELYSEE at Ascot and at 20/1+ I’m going to have another go, as I believe she is still unexposed and if there is one to win this from the front it will be SAFFRON BEACH who we know doesn’t get the Oaks trip, but could use her stamina to take the sting out of a number of these.
CHAMPERS ELYSEE e/w – SAFFRON BEACH e/w
4:10 Cash Out At bet365 Hcap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 7f
DULAS Win – LA MAQUINA e/w
4:45 Moet & Chandon Hcap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 5f
CHARLIE FELLOWES e/w – KING OF STARS e/w