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Newmarket July Meeting Day 1. Raceweb Year 3

Capt. Kneesup

Capt. Kneesup

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Last Saturday saw another decent performance for Raceweb with an overall 14.97 pts profit to start the month of July with.

The weekend also gave me the chance to catch up with an analysis of recent results, allowing me to remember that we showed an overall profit for Royal Ascot – but had four losing days out of five. Our Golf has been pretty good, providing two big wins this year, but the Euro footy has been disastrous on fixed odds, (I’ve survived on the spreads), and there’s not much money to be made from F1 motor racing – unless you can drive. June however wasn’t too bad, with a profit of some 55pts.

However, as you all know, it’s not like that every week or indeed every month. Cheltenham was a disaster, Aintree not much better. So, in the event of your being accosted by some enquiry as to your betting from an elderly Puritan, here is the way I regard (and explain) Raceweb’s ups and downs. If you owned a small dinghy, with a hole in it, and kept it on a trailer in your back garden and did nothing with it, except hack off the neighbours and cause angst to your partner, it would still, as hobbies go, cost you more than following Raceweb’s advice. I know this to be provably true – because we publish tips almost every week and because you read them.  This week also marks the 2nd anniversary of the “new” Raceweb, (there was an earlier iteration), and since that post on Wednesday 3rd July 2019, when Bill Neigh and Harry Love both won, you would have wagered over 2000 pts, which might be 50p a point or £100, that’s not my business. For simplicity’s sake, I use a calculation of £2 per win bet and £1 e/w to calculate our progress. Regardless of the price when I write, returns are calculated at SP.

Having invested all that money and as you stare at the forlorn little dinghy in the garden you might perhaps be pleased to know that after two years you would only be down £8.42!

And here’s the rub. You would have had days when you’d just haemorrhaged 20 pts and you’d be feeling a little deflated. Even the Dinghy looks attractive at that moment and as hobbies go, might even be considered adventurous and sporty, possibly even sexy.

“Yes, I have a dinghy you know. I just wish I could find the time from my other commitments to race the little minx more often. You must come and join me next time I’m going over to Ryde.”

Then you remember those days when you had cash in your pocket when you’d gone down to the pub, and you’d bought your chums a drink and – never mentioning Raceweb – you would have told anyone who’d listen of your genius at picking the 16/1 shot and doubling it up with the 8/1 winner of the next and got the 700/1 forecast for a fiver. On those days, Madame might even receive some small token of affection, a new kettle perhaps or some gardening gloves. Aaah…. those are the moments to savour. When you rule the betting roost and all is well and when quizzed you simply tell people, you almost break even – but at least you don’t own a bloody boat.

Here are the tips for Day One of an always good meeting, that is mercifully free of Matelots.

13:20 British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes C2 6f

Not a clue. 12 runners with 6 races between 5 of them. LOVELY MANA is the favourite at around 2s, and there is no money tonight for any of them, so I’m afraid I suggest leaving it alone OR having a small interest in PRINCESS SHABNAM e/w, if only because Tom Marquand is on board.

PRINCESS SHABNAME e/w 

13:50 Bahrain Trophy Stakes (G3) 1m 5f

This was won last year by Al Aasy, who runs in The Tattersalls Stakes later, and this year Shadwell has another go with MANDOOB who is seeking a hat-trick. Brian Meehan had this race in mind when he won his Haydock Novice in a very easy fashion and with something in reserve of his ¾l victory. However, there is stiff opposition with the G1 winner GEAR UP, Queen’s Vase third STOWELL, and Roger Charlton’s recently gelded PLEASANT MAN who looked to be useful once more, when winning the Bibury Cup LTO. STOWELL was tongue-tied at Ascot and the race was run and won from the front about 2f out. The winner, Kemari looks potentially like a G1 winner, and STOWELL’s performance was thus notable at this level which is why he is the favourite. YIBIR has been gelded since his last racecourse visit, when he was seen in close proximity to Irish Derby second Lone Eagle, but was considered arsey – which the cut might have seen to. He is being backed tonight. However, I think GEAR UP’s Group 1 form – admittedly in France as a 2yo – still has merit and he can still be had at 6/1 with William Hill and bet Victor.

GEAR UP win

14:25 Tattersalls July Stakes (G2) 6f

From Heath to Heath, this race will unscramble a lot of Ascot form, and start establishing the 2yo sprinters form lines. The surprising Coventry Stakes second ELDRICKJONES, fifth-placed EBRO RIVER, and Norfolk Stakes third PROJECT DANTE are here. The Windsor Castle Stakes second DIG TWO turns up for Hugh Palmer, and THE ORGANISER and TOLSTOY also arrive from poor performances in the Coventry. Of all of those, the one who I think had the best run under the worst circumstances (bad draw primarily), is DIG TWO who led home his group on the stands side. He has the potential to take this, as does LUSAIL who represents Hannon and Al Shaqab. They have time too for a quick turnaround with this one if he’s successful, and have him down to Goodwood, given his ownership. PROJECT DANTE is my big fear but is no sort of money in this trappy race.

DIG TWO e/w – LUSAIL e/w

15:00 Each Way Extra At bet365 Handicap C2 6f

BOOMSHALAA touched 6s briefly for about ten minutes before the market generally went 11/2 overnight and since decs. He is now 4s and is still attracting support. He has only run four times, but he was a neck second in the Palace of Holyroodhouse at Ascot, on filthy ground, but seemed to be going easily until he got hampered. He won his Windsor novice before that beating William Haggas’ Arousing who has won since, as has the fourth. There is a York Heritage handicap just before Ascot week, that featured four of today’s runners, one being JADWAL who Charlie Hills suggested to me had some merit. Another was Richard Fahey’s BLIND BEGGAR, who ran in that York race, but looks as though he needs the word Soft in the Going description. However what caught my eye was the other Fahey runner – who didn’t run at York – ABDUCTION, who is being backed like there is no tomorrow. Both horses are owned by the same syndicate and it’s a brave trainer who risks pitting syndicate horses against each other. ABDUCTION only needed a tap at Pontefract to get a to within a neck and it was an impressive performance. That Ponte race has produced 2 wins and 2 places and looks like it might be decent form. You could make a case for WHENTHEDEALIS DONE who has Ryan Moore on board as well as APOLLO ONE who beat Ryan’s ride at Salisbury last year and who was third in the Solario at Sandown. The winner went on to win The Cheshire Oaks this year and both horses are decent.

There is a range of offers (14/1 Bet 365 for 4 places and ¼ odds through to 11/1 for 6 places at 1/5 odds), I’d get the best you can.

ABDUCTION e/w – APOLLO ONE e/w

15:35 Princess Of Wales’s Tattersalls Stakes (G2) 1m 4f

AL AASY is No 4 on Timeform’s Top European older horses, alongsideBattash, Lord North and Pyledriver. Only Palace Pier, Mishriff and Subjectivist are higher. That said Pyledriver beat him by a neck in the Coronation Cup at Epsom LTO and I cannot see AL AASY getting beaten…. except he has been before when odds-on. If there was one to take him on it might be SIR RON PRIESTLEY who won the Jockey Club Stakes in May but wasn’t clever in the Hardwicke. It is also conceivable that HIGHEST GROUND had the wrong ground in The Hardwicke and before that in The Gordon Richards, and before that in the Darley Stakes.  In fact when the ground rides Good/Soft or worse, according to the race times and not the Clerk, then he has lost. On Fast ground, he remains unbeaten. Just a thought….

 No Bet. Watch and Learn 

16:10 Edmondson Hall Solicitors Sir Henry Cecil Stakes (Str) C1 1m

BAAEED was impressive when beating Komachi by 7½ lengths LTO over C&D, always travelling strongly and quickening to lead over 1f out. However MAXIMAL – yet another Ryan Moore ride – will have a chance if the pace is slow and he can tuck in behind NAAMOOS who will try to win this from the front.

MAXIMAL Win

16:45 John Deere Handicap (Str) C3 1m

My eye is drawn to GIN PALACE who has some value at 16/1. EPIC ENDEAVOUR,  PATH OF THUNDER, TENBURY WELLS and ALMINOOR all meet the profile of 14 of the last 15 winners, in that they are aged between 3 & 4, have a maximum rating of 92 are carrying a weight between 8st8lbs and 9st13lbs and their last race was between 11 and 60 days ago.  None of these are really impressive or grab my attention, so purely for the sport, I’ll back my first and last mentioned. although I suspect I have mentioned the winner, but don’t know which.

GIN PALACE e/w – ALMINOOR e/w

NOTE TO BANKER:

If you wanted a fun punt, you might consider backing Ryan Moore’s mounts blind today in 21 e/w doubles and 35 e/w trebles and of course an e/w seven-fold. Astonishingly, and it must be pretty rare, his horses are all (bar one) priced at 5/1 or higher!

  • 13:20 3 – Invigilate @ 5/1
  • 13:50 2 – Gear Up @ 5/1
  • 14:25 1 – Aleezdancer @ 9/1
  • 15:00 8 – Whenthedealinsdone @ 11/1
  • 15:35 4 – Highest Ground @ 5/1
  • 16:10 4 – Maximal @ 11/4
  • 16:45 6 – Satono Japan @ 16/1

 

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