This trend continues the theme of horses that are unlikely to win, based on their last race. In this case, they have had the misfortune of being unable or unwilling to have their final Cheltenham prep race other than at these tracks. Personally I think some of these tracks are delightful, but for whatever reason, they are not ideal for next-time-out Cheltenham winners.
FACT: 205 Festival races have been contested by 396 horses who produced just 3 winners between them. They had all raced at either CARLISLE (R-Stiff-Uphill) – CARTMEL (L-VSharp-Flat) – CORK (R-Sharp-Flat) – DUNDALK (L-Sharp-Flat) – HUNTINGDON (R-Galloping-Flat) – NEWTON ABBOTT (L-VSharp-Flat) – PERTH (R-VSharp-Flat) – SEDGEFIELD (L-Sharp-Undulating) – STRATFORD (L-Sharp-Flat) – TAUNTON (R-Sharp-Flat) – TOWCESTER (R-Gallop- VUndulating).
Cheltenham as you all know is L-Galloping-Very Undulating.
The A/E is o.16 and even the 47 places (11.87%) is pretty stark. The racecourses in the main share nothing with Cheltenham and that, and perhaps a lower quality of possible prep races, might be your reason. The numbers are high enough to give confidence in the stats.
RULE: You can safely exclude any horse at the Festival, that raced at any of the following courses LTO.
CARLISLE – CARTMEL – CORK – DUNDALK – HUNTINGDON – NEWTON ABBOTT – PERTH- SEDGEFIELD – STRATFORD – TAUNTON – TOWCESTER