With the sad inevitability of the unsinkable ship travelling at speed and an enormous stationary iceberg, I suspect my Cheltenham maybe gashed below the waterline. I tried to enthuse about Tiger Roll’s victory and Cheltenham five-timer, honestly. I was thrilled for Ms Blackmore, who isn’t a female but is a jockey. (Broadcaster please note). I…
Author: Capt. Kneesup
Cheltenham Day 2
I have not yet had the chance to congratulate myself for tipping and Brian Harman for playing into his 3rd place in TPC. A 175/1 third, even for a shared place at a 5th odds means that to a £1 e/w LSP, we are +22 pts overall. The rest of my picks… buck up your…
Cheltenham Day 1
And they’re [almost] off…
A weekend view of The Cheltenham Festival
The girl in the picture is Elvira, whom I have mentioned ante scriptor. She turned up rather suddenly, refused coffee, and then said nothing, but threw furious glances at my unlit fag. I tried to tell her that I thought her top, though lovely, was possibly too chilly for racing. She simply scowled. That is…
This day and that Day.
The Augustinian, German theologian Martin Luther was known for his well-meant interference in early 16th-century religious beliefs, and his fanatical hatred of Jews, Catholics, Anabaptists, and all the other names on his very long list. He rewrote most of the published Catholic liturgical works in the vernacular, all of the Bible and even the Qu’ran….
Kneesup goes a la mode.
This week I have started the heavy-lifting for the Cheltenham Festival. Just as I got my metaphorical crayons out I became involved in a question of fashion. Those of you with a strong disposition will know that I have trenchant views on the subject. These views primarily encompass the time-warp engulfing my wardrobe and the…
PGA Players Championship – DeChambeau kept in bounds
The Arnold Palmer Invitational last week saw, Bryson DeChambeau under extreme scrutiny, having threatened to cut corners on Bay Hill’s Par 5 sixth, by driving across the pond. In the end, he didn’t, but the threat alone has made the PGA change the rules for the 18th at TPC Sawgrass, where the final hole is…
Another quiet week with nothing on the news
You get weeks like that, don’t you? You can have month after month when the papers are full of horror stories, and the TV and radio stations spout doom and gloom every hour on the hour. A relentless montage of death, destruction and loss. Friends, neighbours, citizens, strangers all weeping and wailing, and all being…
My old gender-neutralised friend – and nobody even bothered to ask …..it?
Some of you will know that on Tuesdays, after tea, I often indulge in a spot of PR and Nowcomms, if only to keep the boot-fags in dubbin and the Crumpet-wallah in proper honey. Thus I am aware, because I hang with my crew and the kids, that all is not well down in the…
At Last – Some Irish Craic
I am aware that many of the Trends in this section are negative, but I hope will allow the reader to avoid backing horses that probably won’t win unless The Baby Jesus gets involved. This stat however has a solid base and forms a good platform for further investigation. It has produced a profit on…
Of Course you can – but not that Course and not here
This trend continues the theme of horses that are unlikely to win, based on their last race. In this case, they have had the misfortune of being unable or unwilling to have their final Cheltenham prep race other than at these tracks. Personally I think some of these tracks are delightful, but for whatever reason,…
Stick to what you know.
As you might expect, when you’re digging in dark statistical corners, you occasionally unearth a shard of old pottery which makes you understand that the Trojans had possibly invented Toblerone. Thus it was that I uncovered this small gem, that suggests that Handicap Hurdlers do what they do best before the Festival, which is race…
Something of the Arriviste about these
It’s happened to all of us at one time or another. You turn up somewhere you’ve been invited to and you’re wearing your best Waikiki Beach Surfing Shirt and a pair of shorts and flip-flops. You’ve bought a six-pack and a smile and the door opens on a scene of sophisticated elegance, as the besuited…
You do actually get what the price suggests
Turning up at Cheltenham is no guarantee of success – and that even applies to the crowd, as I am reminded whenever I see the bookie’s children returning from another term at Harrow. I wondered about those horses who do turn up and more importantly where they came from. Supposing they weren’t fancied LTO, came…
Don’t be handicapped by inexperience
Bizarrely you would think that taking 7lbs off a decent handicap hurdler, might give one a fighting chance with Honest Bob, bookie to the gentry. I hate to disillusion you, or indeed to remove the experiential crust from the plate of young Ignatius O’Hare, claiming jockey to Mr Jumps-Ditch. But here’s something to consider about…
Give it a rest
As with so many of us, there are a finite number of miles on the clock and even the most elite of elite athletes will tell you, that they all have moments when a twinge or a creak tells them that moment has come. Is it the same with horses at the top end of…
Show some form
FACT: Since 2003, there have been 92 Grade 1 Festival Races. 76 of those races were contested by horses that had completed their races but had NOT been first or second in BOTH their last two races. Recent horses that failed, included MIGHT BITE, PRESENTING PERCY, TORNADO FLYER, MENGLI KHAN, VOIX DU REVE and POLITOLOGUE…
Older yes, Wiser perhaps, Winners hmmm
FACT: There have been 389 Class 1 races at the Festival, (Grade 1,2,3 and Listed) since 2003. 124 of those races have had 230 horses aged 11 and older compete in them and only 3 have won and 26 have been placed. The A/E is 0.29 and with a win percentage of only 1.3%, you’d…
The best need a proper break
In many cases, there is nothing strange about many Festival statistics, but for some reason this made me double-check. With further thought, however, it makes perfect sense. FACT: Since 2003 there have been 219 G1 races at the Festival. 68 of those races, almost a third, have been contested by horses who have raced in…
Flat Out – but not here
FACT: In 83 races since 2003, 103 horses have turned up, whose last prep race was on the Flat or All-weather. 7 of them were placed – but none of them won. Among those not understanding this absolute fact were WHISKEY SOUR the 2019 County Hurdle favourite at 5/1 and the 2018 favourite for the…
Huntingdon Hackers
We know we have had 437 NH Festival races since 2003. FACT: Almost 25% of those contained a runner who had raced at Huntingdon LTO. In fact, there were 132 such horses in 103 races, who had been to the charming Cambridgeshire track and for an A/E of 0.15, they produced one winner and 16…
Ignore Weak Ratings.
For the Lord sayeth that many are called, but few are chosen and at Cheltenham, the meek and those rated 112 or below will not inherit the earth. FACT: Since 2003, there have been a total of 438 races. In that time 59 races have had 139 runners in them, rated 112 or less. None…
The German Hurdlers Trend
Fact: Since 2003, there have been 206 Festival Hurdle races of which 88 were contested by 122 German-bred horses, of which only 2 have won. (Gordon Elliott’s ARAMAX 11th March 2020 in the Fred Winter and Willie Mullins ARCTIC FIRE on 17th March 2017 in the County Hurdle). There were 16 places. With a win…
Bad Luck Ben and Jim – and good luck to us today.
The stupidest question ever asked of any sportsman, as their hopes, self-worth, future careers and personal reputation lie in tattered, bedraggled pieces in full view of a watching and sometimes, smirking world is: How does that feel? For Sir Ben Ainslie and his sponsor, Ineos owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe, that pile includes £110m of investment, the…
Samantha has just had to pop out…
A slightly ethereal conversation this morning with Madame, who posed the question: “Is it possible, that we might both have died from Covid, and that we have simply gone on as Ghosts in another dimension – unaware of our real state.” Furrowed in brow, I asked her if she was having a total meltdown. Of…
It’s either moss, or the green shoots of a comeback
It’s been a torrid few weeks on the punting front, and the whiff of ordure was beginning to clag these pages. However, like a small, elegant, spring-like springy thing, (think Fantasia’s Hippos dancing), I have sprung back into contention for this year’s Luckier than a Bat in a Chinese Laboratory Trophy. Yesterday we were 12+pts…
A reader writes…
Dear Sir Jim Ratcliffe, I don’t pay you to sit at home all day watching men playing in boats and then hitting tennis balls around in the blazing sun of the Antipodes, with TV pictures showing an apparently immune crowd sipping cocktails on the poop deck or whatever. It’s Saturday and I demand racing tips. …
This week I ‘ave been mostly studying blockchains
Much like the Fast Show’s Jesse, he of the notorious diets and wardrobe of filthy muck-spreading clothes, I feel mentally dishevelled – and I blame it all on Bitcoin. Thanks to Elon’s actions this week, I realised that my knowledge was thin, that time had moved on and that I had better refresh the little…
Another 180 minutes I can never get back
If you have the opportunity and wherewithal to burn five pound notes then can I guide you to the most incomprehensible film I have ever seen, making Inception seem as complicated as an episode of Andy Pandy. That film is Tenet and it is a Bond’esque espionage thriller, focused on the weaponisation of Time Inversion…
Chicken jealousy raises its ugly head
Sadly this week saw the passing of Sam Vestey, who was a good man. We weren’t best buddies, but his huge skill with people was to make them think they might be. I knew him to talk to and to pass the odd hour with him and over the years he has on more than…
Crikey Bruce – that’s a bit rum
While Europe tries to remember its manners and its debt to others, and decides whether the subjugation of moral principle by political ideal merits such poor behaviour, I have to ask what on earth is going on in Oz, renowned for its incorruptible embracement of moral decency, culture, diversity and fair play? For almost a…
Mrs Paddy Power Mates’ Chase
St James’s Place Foxhunter Chase
1st February 2021 Willie Mullins’ son Patrick bought home BILLAWAY to land the Naas hunter chase yesterday. Bookies cut him to 3/1 (5/2 NRNB – 100/30 in a place) for this race, in which he was runner-up last year. “That was a fair performance on ground he didn’t like and on ground, he couldn’t really pick…
The Wellchild Cheltenham Gold Cup
22nd February 2021 Willie Mullins talking about AL BOUM PHOTO: I’ll give him a big bit of work this week. He’s in great shape. He worked well last week and he’s a big bit of work coming up this week. He’s uncomplicated, he’s very nice to train. I didn’t think when we were buying him…
Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateurs
26th Jan 2021 JERRYSBACK caught the eye, staying on for a 5l third to DASHEL DRASHER from a considerate Richard Johnson ride. (Ascot 2m 5f Handicap Chase). I don’t know what it is, but long absences suggest a fragility He ran off 142 and is 6lb lower than his very tired 3rd in the 2019…
Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate
Ryanair Chase
28th January 2021 Nicky Henderson is adamant ALTIOR will be going to The Champion Chase, despite yard jockey Nico de Boinville hoping to try the horse over further in the Ryanair Chase. Altior won the Champion Chase in 2018 and 2019 but has suffered defeat twice in his last three starts and missed last season’s…
Weatherbys Champion Bumper
8th February 2021 KILCRUIT bolted up in The Dublin Racing Festival Bumper with Patrick Mullins not having to move a muscle. He disposed of a high-quality field with total ease and in the process saw his Champion Bumper odds slashed. He’s now the 7/4 favourite for the race, having been available at 10/1 before he…
Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase
26th Jan 2021 Trainer Christian Williams reports POTTERS CORNER, winner of the Midlands and Welsh Grand Nationals, to be in good form following his run over hurdles in a Pertemps qualifier at Warwick this month and will now send the 11-year-old to contest the Glenfarclas Chase over the cross-country fences at the Cheltenham Festival as…
Queen Mother Champion Chase
8th February 2021 CHACUN POUR SOI was impressive in The Dublin Racing Festival’s Dublin Chase, and despite Min being pulled up, Chacun Pour Soi was still very impressive in retaining his crown. He’s now odds-on with every bookmaker, bar one for the Champion Chase, having been around the 11/10 mark before the race. SkyBet is…
Coral Cup Handicap
26th Jan 2021 The Henderson-trained CRAIGNEICHE despite his inexperience, took the G3 Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle very impressively by an easy 7l and off OR 127. He hadn’t been since this time last year when he won but bled. Seeing him get worked up beforehand certa\inly weakened hin in the market, but he travelled strongly throughout…
Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (aka The RSA or The Festival Chase)
8th February 2021 MONKFISH was another Willy Mullins Dublin Festival winner, and the way he beat Latest Exhibition by 11 lengths had race-watchers opening a Gold Cup rumour mill. He would need to be supplemented for that but for this race, he remains 5/6 Favourite. 1st February 2021 EKLAT DE RIRE, an imposing French-bred put…
The National Hunt Chase
1st February 2021 EKLAT DE RIRE, an imposing French-bred put in an impeccable round of jumping for Rachael Blackmore in the G3 Novice chase at Naas yesterday, staying strongly all the way to the line to win by almost 2l from Escaria Ten, with Pencilfulloflead, giving 8lb to the first two, 3rd. De Bromhead said: “He’s…
The Unibet Champion Hurdle
8th February 2021 HONEYSUCKLE won the Irish Champion Hurdle, blitzing the field under Rachael Blackmore. In turn, she was slashed for the Champion Hurdle, with connections now surely likely to go down that route, such was the manner of her victory. As big as 10/1 for the feature race on the opening day of the…
The Ultima Handicap Chase
26th Jan 2021 JERRYSBACK caught the eye, staying on for a 5l third to DASHEL DRASHER from a considerate Richard Johnson ride. (Ascot 2m 5f Handicap Chase). I don’t know what it is, but long absences suggest a fragility He ran off 142 and is 6lb lower than his very tired 3rd in the 2019…
The Arkle
8th February 2021 ENUGUMENE didn’t disappoint his fans in The Irish Arkle at Leopardstown never appearing to come out of first gear. Widely available at 5/1 before the race, he was slashed into 5/2 and 9/4 following his electric victory. The Tony Bloom owned seven-year-old didn’t jump with fluency during the race but hitting the…
What a week. Enquiries galore and a huge 21st
There are only a few weeks every year or so, that make one pause for serious thought. There have been even fewer in lockdown because unless you got a can of paint out, it has been a case of plus ca change pretty well every day. This week was different. There was a change to…
Close Brothers David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle
18th Jan THE GLANCING QUEEN (14/1) may be aimed at The G2 Mares Novice Hurdle rather than the G1 Mares Hurdle. (50/1) A high-class bumper horse and a very creditable third in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle at Newbury 16 days earlier, she won easily at Bangor on 14th Jan under her penalty, strolling clear…