No time for chit chat. I’m building a website for a charity; I’ve got an environmental campaign to put together; I’ve just come back from seeing my furrowed eye-brow consultant and I’m not sure where The Cheltenham tweeds are. All this before 7.00 pm when I’m off for road-kill with his Lordship. So onto the…
Racing Festivals
The Cheltenham Question
I had a jolly Fish and Chip supper at a local pub last night with my old friend The FinTech Brain, and while inventing a new and delicious dessert (one scoop each of Blood Orange and Gin Sorbets covered in a shot of Cointreau), we cruised around the conversational islands of Paralympic Curling, Olympic 3-day…
Feast or Famine? It’s not just at Cheltenham.
I wondered this week, at what point the Labour front-bench might overcome their oft-absent scruples and walk out of the chamber en masse in order to join the International Brigade. They might not have been alone. The demeanour of Ben Wallace, (whose preemptive “Here, Let Me Help You” strike on Priti Patel will have weakened…
Common sense is in spite of, not as the result of, education – Greek or otherwise
Firstly an apology for my absence yesterday. I have been to London on the sort of “official business” that No 10 habitues are familiar with – namely two days of lunching and one day of dining, over Thursday and Friday. This marked the opening salvo of National Ethanol Toxicity Fortnight, and I had a marvellous…
Massively under-exercised
Dear old Mark Twain, who could be something of a dark cove when it came to amusing, intelligent writing, once said: “I have never taken any exercise except sleeping and resting.” That about sums up the current Kneesup predicament, as untroubled sleep has been evading me of late and knackeration can be a grinding thing….
St Leger Meeting Day 3
I read this morning of The Commonwealth Secretariat, which provided employment to a chisel-jawed Australian-Canadian lawyer, (several boxes ticked there in terms of Commonwealth), called Joshua Brien. I only read it because reporting of his trial was banned by Judge Martin Griffith, but the order was lifted yesterday after an application by the Evening Standard….
Time for a good kip – A post about NH horse ratings
As I mentioned briefly the other day, the BHA has – after some dedicated “doing Bugger All” – held a review, had a consultation and discovered that the Irish know how to beat the British handicapping system. With a tiny hint of knee-jerk, the BHA strode into action after the Irish horses smashed up English-trained…
The Ebor, York and TV racing
I wondered last night over a pint, whether there were wise old men in Sodom and Gomorrah, who, as the great fire rained down and their entire world was turned to dust, stood on the Citadel walls and with their last few scorched breathes said: “There. I told you God existed and Lumme can he…
The Ebor Festival – York Racecourse Day 3
Apologies for the sudden departure yesterday, but our time is not always our own. It was good racing on the second day, although quite why the Galtres isn’t televised is strange. I have mentioned the AP doldrums recently, and some commentators made the point that if the rest of the Coolmore string is underperforming, then…
The Ebor Festival – York Racecourse – Day 2
Yesterday was one for bursting reputational bubbles, and sadly for my wallet, some of them went without much of a pop, more the raspberry of a flabby balloon. Yibir will go to Belmont for The Jockey Club Stakes and the ground and new riding tactics of just keeping him “buried” as Charlie described it, and…
The Ebor Festival. York Races Day 1
There are days when you might think Huzzah, York races and the Ebor will soon be upon us. Your spirits are lifted because the wind is moderate, and all the clouds are louring over someone else’s house and are buried in someone else’s bosomy ocean. True there may not be much sun, but it will…
Glorious Goodwood – creating work for Hepatologists everywhere.
If some deadly enemy had sent over tiny drones to film the British and Irish at summer play, they would have immense insight into our national stamina, fortitude and determination, by simply going to a racing festival, Their cameras, cunningly disguised perhaps as Wasps, might also have led them to ponder about the rather strange…
Glorious Goodwood
The first day of Glorious Goodwood with the tips for every race.
Newmarket Day 3 and the ITV races.
Not the most sparkling Friday, and I apologise. I think there are days when one is simply trying to over-deliver – certainly I overthought it. There was nothing among the winners that really surprised me, but I never even discussed them, and indeed I dismissed a number on the grounds of price rather than ability. …
Newmarket July Meeting Day 2
Yesterday’s Raceweb advisory was a tale of two halves. On the real and considered side of the equation, we were +4pts with a win and two decent places. Then in the second half I also referenced an amusing possible Ryan Moore Across the card “fun” bet, by which, I hope you understand, I mean very,…
Newmarket July Meeting Day 1. Raceweb Year 3
Last Saturday saw another decent performance for Raceweb with an overall 14.97 pts profit to start the month of July with. The weekend also gave me the chance to catch up with an analysis of recent results, allowing me to remember that we showed an overall profit for Royal Ascot – but had four losing…
Ascot Day Sank
How went your day at the bio-secure experiment that was Ascot’s Day 4? I hear you ask. Well, my dears, there was horrendous traffic thanks to a collapsed road which cut off the M4 J14. The road closure resulted in our late arrival at a very delicious breakfast at The Royal Foresters, a highly recommended…
Ascot Day 4
It was a day when the Shortlist produced 3 winners and the final selections looked like after-thoughts. Mark you, much of the day was lost to trying to decipher a set of NHS instructions in order to take two tests, in order to gain access to Ascot. What is it about all Government communications that…
Ascot Day 3
Work raises its ugly head and delays matters, while winking at me from the sideboard are the 227 tests I have to take before Friday’s big adventure. But first, we must continue our labours against the bookies and, as labours go, yesterday went pretty well. We’re showing a 30pt profit for the meeting so far,…
Ascot Day 2
Sometimes you have days when God leaps out of bed and says “Here I am – and because you have recently been less of an arse than normal, I have decided you shall have a good day.” So you go for lunch with old friends and see a chum you haven’t seen for five years…
For a brief moment we all became Christians
Thanks to the Welsh, the first score draw arrived on Saturday, while I travelled back from Newmarket, having spent the morning with William Knight and the boys from Kennet Valley Thoroughbreds. We were taking pictures of their new branded racing kit, KVT having secured a decent sponsorship deal with the fast-growing pub company, Oakman Group…
The Derby
While that wretched Liberal-wet, Green-belt-destroying PM has failed to make 4th June a National Holiday, (he’s always looked like he’d have been happier at Harrow), I cannot hold him responsible for the slow start to my Feast Day. No man can start such a day with no brekker, a mug of tea and a dash…
The denuded antepost list and how to pull Elle Macpherson
Endless numbers of “stars” and “celebrity doctors” keep insisting that for me to be well, I must be happy. For me to be happy I must… and there then follows on TV, a horrific list of things one must buy, achieve or obtain, depending on the time of day. Much of it appears to have…
Newmarket 3 Cheltenham 2
The tips for today’s TV racing are here. Very brief. Will explain more tomorrow.
Grand National Meeting Day 2
Yesterday, or rather the very early morning, started badly, as I found myself working in the very early hours to meet an 08.00 deadline. I crashed out about 03.30 and then had Madame’s always fun re-enactment of Reveille in the English lines on the Eve of Waterloo. She plays all the parts, including saddling the…
Aintree Day 1 and a medical opinion
I exercise a great deal of caution about wandering around the village these days, for fear of being accosted, and then denounced, as an agent of the Left, Right, Rich, Poor, Workers, Fascists, Communists, Idlers, and people of … “insert your Woke word of choice”. Yesterday I had written a letter and missed my hugely…
The GN Trends
AGE 24/29 (14/17) Aged 9 or older BETTING 23/29 – Returned a double-figure price 21/29 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting CLASS 28/29 (15/17) OR 137 > 20 / 20 OR 136+ 22/29 Carries 10-13 or less 20 / 20 Carries 10-3 20 / 20 Carried at least 10st 10lbs LTO…
Cheltenham Day 4
One of my readers, the one who doesn’t live in North Wales, sent a note to remind me that Beau Geste, who I mentioned yesterday, died at his post. He asked if I was, like Beau, considering doing the decent thing, should my Cheltenham failure continue. Trust me, Mr Scrote-Boggis of Pinworm Villas, everyone here…
The Pharaoh of Galway breaks his quarantine to give his tips
The top Irish Tipster and irregular commentator for Raceweb, Peter O’Tool, aka The Pharaoh of Galway, has managed to smuggle out his Gold Cup day tips, from his quarantined quarters in Barbados. Having never missed a Gold Cup meeting before, his frustration at a constant diet of rum and pineapple, various types of Prawn, Snapper…
Cheltenham Day 3
With the sad inevitability of the unsinkable ship travelling at speed and an enormous stationary iceberg, I suspect my Cheltenham maybe gashed below the waterline. I tried to enthuse about Tiger Roll’s victory and Cheltenham five-timer, honestly. I was thrilled for Ms Blackmore, who isn’t a female but is a jockey. (Broadcaster please note). I…
Cheltenham Day 2
I have not yet had the chance to congratulate myself for tipping and Brian Harman for playing into his 3rd place in TPC. A 175/1 third, even for a shared place at a 5th odds means that to a £1 e/w LSP, we are +22 pts overall. The rest of my picks… buck up your…
Cheltenham Day 1
And they’re [almost] off…
A weekend view of The Cheltenham Festival
The girl in the picture is Elvira, whom I have mentioned ante scriptor. She turned up rather suddenly, refused coffee, and then said nothing, but threw furious glances at my unlit fag. I tried to tell her that I thought her top, though lovely, was possibly too chilly for racing. She simply scowled. That is…
At Last – Some Irish Craic
I am aware that many of the Trends in this section are negative, but I hope will allow the reader to avoid backing horses that probably won’t win unless The Baby Jesus gets involved. This stat however has a solid base and forms a good platform for further investigation. It has produced a profit on…
Of Course you can – but not that Course and not here
This trend continues the theme of horses that are unlikely to win, based on their last race. In this case, they have had the misfortune of being unable or unwilling to have their final Cheltenham prep race other than at these tracks. Personally I think some of these tracks are delightful, but for whatever reason,…
Stick to what you know.
As you might expect, when you’re digging in dark statistical corners, you occasionally unearth a shard of old pottery which makes you understand that the Trojans had possibly invented Toblerone. Thus it was that I uncovered this small gem, that suggests that Handicap Hurdlers do what they do best before the Festival, which is race…
Something of the Arriviste about these
It’s happened to all of us at one time or another. You turn up somewhere you’ve been invited to and you’re wearing your best Waikiki Beach Surfing Shirt and a pair of shorts and flip-flops. You’ve bought a six-pack and a smile and the door opens on a scene of sophisticated elegance, as the besuited…
You do actually get what the price suggests
Turning up at Cheltenham is no guarantee of success – and that even applies to the crowd, as I am reminded whenever I see the bookie’s children returning from another term at Harrow. I wondered about those horses who do turn up and more importantly where they came from. Supposing they weren’t fancied LTO, came…
Don’t be handicapped by inexperience
Bizarrely you would think that taking 7lbs off a decent handicap hurdler, might give one a fighting chance with Honest Bob, bookie to the gentry. I hate to disillusion you, or indeed to remove the experiential crust from the plate of young Ignatius O’Hare, claiming jockey to Mr Jumps-Ditch. But here’s something to consider about…
Give it a rest
As with so many of us, there are a finite number of miles on the clock and even the most elite of elite athletes will tell you, that they all have moments when a twinge or a creak tells them that moment has come. Is it the same with horses at the top end of…
Show some form
FACT: Since 2003, there have been 92 Grade 1 Festival Races. 76 of those races were contested by horses that had completed their races but had NOT been first or second in BOTH their last two races. Recent horses that failed, included MIGHT BITE, PRESENTING PERCY, TORNADO FLYER, MENGLI KHAN, VOIX DU REVE and POLITOLOGUE…
Older yes, Wiser perhaps, Winners hmmm
FACT: There have been 389 Class 1 races at the Festival, (Grade 1,2,3 and Listed) since 2003. 124 of those races have had 230 horses aged 11 and older compete in them and only 3 have won and 26 have been placed. The A/E is 0.29 and with a win percentage of only 1.3%, you’d…
The best need a proper break
In many cases, there is nothing strange about many Festival statistics, but for some reason this made me double-check. With further thought, however, it makes perfect sense. FACT: Since 2003 there have been 219 G1 races at the Festival. 68 of those races, almost a third, have been contested by horses who have raced in…
Flat Out – but not here
FACT: In 83 races since 2003, 103 horses have turned up, whose last prep race was on the Flat or All-weather. 7 of them were placed – but none of them won. Among those not understanding this absolute fact were WHISKEY SOUR the 2019 County Hurdle favourite at 5/1 and the 2018 favourite for the…
Huntingdon Hackers
We know we have had 437 NH Festival races since 2003. FACT: Almost 25% of those contained a runner who had raced at Huntingdon LTO. In fact, there were 132 such horses in 103 races, who had been to the charming Cambridgeshire track and for an A/E of 0.15, they produced one winner and 16…
Ignore Weak Ratings.
For the Lord sayeth that many are called, but few are chosen and at Cheltenham, the meek and those rated 112 or below will not inherit the earth. FACT: Since 2003, there have been a total of 438 races. In that time 59 races have had 139 runners in them, rated 112 or less. None…
The German Hurdlers Trend
Fact: Since 2003, there have been 206 Festival Hurdle races of which 88 were contested by 122 German-bred horses, of which only 2 have won. (Gordon Elliott’s ARAMAX 11th March 2020 in the Fred Winter and Willie Mullins ARCTIC FIRE on 17th March 2017 in the County Hurdle). There were 16 places. With a win…
Mrs Paddy Power Mates’ Chase
St James’s Place Foxhunter Chase
1st February 2021 Willie Mullins’ son Patrick bought home BILLAWAY to land the Naas hunter chase yesterday. Bookies cut him to 3/1 (5/2 NRNB – 100/30 in a place) for this race, in which he was runner-up last year. “That was a fair performance on ground he didn’t like and on ground, he couldn’t really pick…
The Wellchild Cheltenham Gold Cup
22nd February 2021 Willie Mullins talking about AL BOUM PHOTO: I’ll give him a big bit of work this week. He’s in great shape. He worked well last week and he’s a big bit of work coming up this week. He’s uncomplicated, he’s very nice to train. I didn’t think when we were buying him…